18. Prospects for Prediction of Landslide Dam Geometry Using Empirical and Dynamic Models

This article examines the possibility of predicting the geometry of landslide dams on the basis of the characteristics of potential landslides. Empirical techniques exist, by which the distance of travel and mean thickness of the landslide debris can be estimated. These methods are suitable for preliminary studies, but suffer from considerable variability. More sophisticated techniques using two or three-dimensional dynamic analyses of landslide motion are then described using several examples involving actual landslide cases. Theory exists for predicting a wide range of types of landslide motion. However, for practical uses, all of the dynamic methods rely on calibration against case histories. A large amount of research work is still required before such methods can be routinely used to make reliable predictions. For the time being, their use requires a large amount of subjective judgement, which should be augmented by back-analysis of cases similar to the case under consideration.