Reliable Support Design for Excavations in Brittle Rock Using a Global Response Surface Method

Spalling damage can pose significant risks during the construction of underground excavations in brittle rock. While deterministic analyses have traditionally been used in the design of these structures, reliability-based design (RBD) methods provide a more rational approach to quantify spalling risk by directly incorporating input uncertainty into the design process and quantifying variable ground response. This paper presents a new RBD approach to evaluate the excavation response and support performance for a tunnel in brittle ground. Guidance for the selection of appropriate parameters for variable brittle materials is provided using a combination of the damage initiation and spalling limit method and theories of microcrack initiation. System performance is then evaluated using a proposed global response surface method (GRSM) coupled with the first-order reliability method, random sampling and finite element analysis. The proposed GRSM provides a computationally efficient way to evaluate the probability of failure for various limit states, allowing for the selection of appropriate design parameters such as minimum bolt length and required bolt capacity during early stages of design. To demonstrate the usefulness of this approach, a preliminary design option for a proposed deep geologic repository located in Canada was assessed. Numerical analyses were completed using finite element modeling to determine the depth of spalling around the excavation and support loads over the range of possible rock mass and in situ stress conditions. The results of these analyses were then used to assess support performance and make support recommendations.