Weitere Kapitel dieses Buchs durch Wischen aufrufen
In this chapter we consider how information about a crisis spreads. We consider scenarios, and models thereof, which are variants of the susceptible/infected model from epidemiology. The populace is initially unaware that a crisis has occurred. When the crisis begins, awareness that a crisis has occurred spreads throughout the populace via a combination of broadcast media and social feedback; eventually the entire populace becomes aware of the crisis. We investigate transitions in our models from a completely unaware populace to a completely aware populace, focusing particularly on the speed of the process and the relative impact of different media types. Our models’ behaviour depends heavily on the input parameters which dictate the strengths of different spreading mechanisms. As much as possible we draw values for these parameters from real data. These parameters vary significantly depending on the time of day. For example, the number of people who become aware almost immediately because they are tuned in to broadcast media when the crisis occurs ranges from about 2 % to about 47 %. In addition, the timescale on which an alert unfolds means that our models should incorporate dynamic parameters, i.e., parameters that change as the alert unfolds. With regard to the relative impact of different media types in our models, we note that, within our model, social media such as Facebook and Twitter are much less important than traditional media, primarily by virtue of their smaller audience and less frequent use. We also identify a critical timescale: the length of time it takes someone with the TV/Radio on to realize there is a crisis and then to relate it to someone else. This realize-and-relate timescale is likely to have an important role in shaping the early course of events in daytime crisis spreading.
Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu diesem Inhalt zu erhalten
Sie möchten Zugang zu diesem Inhalt erhalten? Dann informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:
Amanda L. Traud, Eric D. Kelsic, Peter J. Mucha, and Mason A. Porter. Comparing community structure to characteristics in online collegiate social networks. SIAM Review, 53(3):526–543, 2011.
BARB. Broadcasters’ audience research board. http://www.barb.co.uk/.
A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani. Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks. Cambridge University Press New York, NY, USA, 2008.
L. Danon, A.P. Ford, T. House, C.P. Jewell, M.J. Keeling, G.O. Roberts, J.V. Ross, and M.C. Vernon. Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, 2011:284909, 2011. CrossRef
D. Easley and J. Kleinberg. Networks, crowds, and markets: Reasoning about a highly connected world. Cambridge Univ Pr, 2010.
Experian. Americans spend 2 hours, 12 minutes per month on twitter.com. http://www.experian.com/blogs/marketing-forward/2011/01/25/americans-spend-2-hours-13-minutes-per-month-on-twitter-com/.
D. Lazer, A. Pentland, L. Adamic, S. Aral, A.L. Barabási, D. Brewer, N. Christakis, N. C., J. Fowler, M. Gutmann, T. Jebara, G. King, M. Macy, D. Roy, and M. Van Alstyne. Computational Social Science. Science, 323(5915):721–723, 2009. CrossRef
Kyu-Min Lee, Jae-Suk Yang, Gunn Kim, Jaesung Lee, Kwang-Il Goh, and In-mook Kim. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises. PLoS One, 6(3):e18443, 2011. CrossRef
M.E.J. Newman. Networks. Oxford University Press, 2010.
M.E.J. Newman. Spread of epidemic disease on networks. Physical Review E, 66(1):16128, 2002. CrossRef
RAJAR. Radio joint audience research. http://www.rajar.co.uk/.
Site Analytics. Twitter.com UVs for february 2012. http://siteanalytics.compete.com/twitter.com/.
UK Online Measurement. The online media landscape: May 2011. http://www.ukom.uk.net/getdata.html.
UK Online Measurement. UKOM top 10 websites audience data. http://www.iabuk.net/research/library/ukom-top-10-websites.
- Simulation of Information Spreading Following a Crisis
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
in-adhesives, MKVS, Neuer Inhalt/© Zühlke, Hellmich GmbH/© Hellmich GmbH, Neuer Inhalt/© momius | stock.adobe.com