6. Statistical Thinking

This chapter is devoted to ‘statistical thinking’ rather than to the formulae, equations and mathematics of statistics per se. How do we, as individual human beings, interpret data, process information and define knowledge? Why are our instincts, gut-feelings and hunches often irrational, illogical and sometimes lead to poor decision-making? In this chapter we investigate how our internal cognitive and perceptual filters assign data into meaningful categories, mould expectations and condition the characteristics that we adopt towards the world i.e. our knowledge. We examine why statistical thinking is hard work, often counter-intuitive and requires a clear understanding of randomness, probability and correlation. We also explore our two, quite different, but inextricably linked cognitive systems; the first, a fast, emotional, automatic system, and the second, a slow, rational, lazy system. The first often responds to situations in an irrational or illogical way due to the bias-laden heuristics used to achieve lightening-speed reactions. Statistical thinking requires an acute awareness of these biases. In this chapter we investigate these biases as barriers to statistical thinking and examine how our emotional brain, in seeking to make sense of a complex world, often misinterprets information and jumps to incorrect conclusions. That this chapter forms the hub of the 9S-framework should come as no surprise, after all statistical thinking is at the heart of Big Data.