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2014 | Buch

SYNER-G: Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Complex Urban, Utility, Lifeline Systems and Critical Facilities

Methodology and Applications

herausgegeben von: K. Pitilakis, P. Franchin, B. Khazai, H. Wenzel

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

Buchreihe : Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering

insite
SUCHEN

Über dieses Buch

SYNER-G, a multidisciplinary effort funded by the European Union, allowed the development of an innovative methodological framework for the assessment of physical as well as socio-economic seismic vulnerability and risk at urban and regional level. The results of SYNER-G are presented in two books both published by Springer, the present and a second one, entitled “SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk: Buildings, Lifelines, Transportation Networks and Critical Facilities”(*), which provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art of the fragility curves, an alternative way to express physical vulnerability of elements at risk.

In this second volume of SYNER-G, the focus has been on presenting a unified holistic methodology for assessing vulnerability at systems level considering interactions between elements at risk (physical and non-physical) and between different systems. The proposed methodology and tool encompasses in an integrated fashion all aspects in the chain, from hazard to the vulnerability assessment of components and systems and to the socio-economic impacts of an earthquake, accounting for most relevant uncertainties within an efficient quantitative simulation scheme. It systematically integrates the most advanced fragility functions to assess the vulnerability of physical assets for buildings, utility systems, transportation networks and complex infrastructures such as harbours and hospitals. The increasing impact due to interactions between different components and systems is treated in a comprehensive way, providing specifications for each network and infrastructure. The proposed socio-economic model integrates social vulnerability into the physical systems modelling approaches providing to decision makers with a dynamic platform to capture post disaster emergency issues like shelter demand and health impact decisions. Application examples at city and regional scale have provided the necessary validation of the methodology and are also included in the book.

The present volume, with its companion volume on fragility functions, represent a significant step forward in the seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of complex interacting urban and regional systems and infrastructures. These volumes are not only of interest to scientists and engineers but also to the insurance industry, decision makers and practitioners in the sector of civil protection and seismic risk management.

(*) Pitilakis K, Crowley E, Kaynia A (eds) (2014) SYNER-G: Typology definition and fragility functions for physical elements at seismic risk, Series: Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering 27, ISBN 978-94-007-7872-6, Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
This chapter outlines the SYNER-G project, its objectives and structure. A short literature review of the vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructural systems and their components highlights the framework of the past works and the challenges anticipated. The main issues for the systemic risk analysis are shortly described including the SYNER-G taxonomy, the seismic hazard estimates, the intensity measures and fragility curves, the systemic analysis methods and performance indicators, the treatment of uncertainties and socio-economic issues of the analysis. Finally, the applications that have been performed to test the SYNER-G methodology and tools are also outlined.
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Paolo Franchin
Chapter 2. A Computational Framework for Systemic Seismic Risk Analysis of Civil Infrastructural Systems
Abstract
This chapter presents the general framework for systemic analysis of a set of interconnected civil infrastructural systems described in this book. While the relevant following chapters provide details on specific aspects of distributed seismic hazard (Chap. 3), vulnerability of components (the companion book), functional model of each system and their interactions (Chap. 5), and socio-economic impact evaluation (Chap. 4), this chapter focuses mainly on how the overall model has been developed according to the object-oriented paradigm, and on the way uncertainty in all factors is modelled.
Paolo Franchin
Chapter 3. Framework for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Spatially Distributed Systems
Abstract
The analysis of seismic risk to multiple systems of spatially distributed infrastructures presents new challenges in the characterisation of the seismic hazard input. For this purpose a general procedure entitled “Shakefield” is established, which allows for the generation of samples of ground motion fields for both single scenario events, and for stochastically generated sets of events needed for probabilistic seismic risk analysis. For a spatially distributed infrastructure of vulnerable elements, the spatial correlation of the ground motion fields for different measures of the ground motion intensity is incorporated into the simulation procedure. This is extended further to consider spatial cross-correlation between different measures of ground motion intensity. In addition to the characterisation of the seismic hazard from transient ground motion, the simulation procedure is extended to consider secondary geotechnical effects from earthquake shaking. Thus the Shakefield procedure can also characterise the effects site amplification and transient strain, and also provide estimates of permanent ground displacement due to liquefaction, slope displacement and coseismic fault rupture.
Graeme Weatherill, Simona Esposito, Iunio Iervolino, Paolo Franchin, Francesco Cavalieri
Chapter 4. Framework for Systemic Socio-economic Vulnerability and Loss Assessment
Abstract
A unified approach for modeling shelter needs and health impacts caused by earthquake damage which integrates social vulnerability into the physical systems modeling approaches has been developed. The shelter needs and health impact models discussed here bring together the state-of-the-art casualty and displaced population estimation models into a comprehensive modeling approach based on multi-criteria decision support, which provides decision makers with a dynamic platform to capture post-disaster emergency shelter demand and health impact decisions. The focus in the shelter needs model is to obtain shelter demand as a consequence of building usability, building habitability and social vulnerability of the affected population rather than building damage alone. The shelter model simulates households’ decision-making and considers physical, socio-economic, climatic, spatial and temporal factors in addition to modeled building damage states. The health impact model combines a new semi-empirical methodology for casualty estimation with models of health impact vulnerability, and transportation accessibility to obtain a holistic assessment of health impacts in the emergency period after earthquakes.
Bijan Khazai, James E. Daniell, Şebnem Düzgün, Tina Kunz-Plapp, Friedemann Wenzel
Chapter 5. Specification of the Vulnerability of Physical Systems
Abstract
The general methodology presented in Chap. 2 of this book, has been conceived in order to be general enough to be adequate for each system. The purpose of this chapter is to decline this methodology to the specificity of each physical system considered: i.e., Buildings, Water Supply System, Waste Water Network, Electrical Power Network, Oil and Gas Network, Transportation Network, Health Care System and Harbours. Each system is described based on its structure and taxonomy, on the dependencies it shares with the other systems, on the available methods to describe its systemic vulnerability and, finally, on the existing indicators to evaluate its performance, but also its functionality according to the societal needs.
Hormoz Modaressi, Nicolas Desramaut, Pierre Gehl
Chapter 6. Introduction to the Applications of the SYNER-G Methodology and Tools
Abstract
The objective of this Chapter is to introduce the application case studies that are presented in the following Chapters. At first, the general framework of the SYNER-G methodology is outlined, including the seismic hazard, the physical vulnerability and the systemic (functional and socio-economic) models, in order to summarize the basic concepts and methods that are applied and facilitate the understanding of the following applications. The SYNER-G approach is presented in detail in Part I of this book (Chaps. 2, 3, 4, and 5). The case studies aim to demonstrate and test the applicability of the developed methodology and tools in different systems and levels of analysis, accounting for inter and intra-dependencies among infrastructural components and systems: at urban level, in the city of Thessaloniki in Greece and a district in the city of Vienna in Austria; at system level, in the gas system of L’Aquila in Italy, the road network of Calabria region in Southern Italy and the electric power network of Sicily again in Italy; in complex infrastructures: a network of hospitals at regional scale and the harbor of Thessaloniki in Greece. A brief description of the case studies is given and their key elements are outlined, including the seismic and geotechnical hazard assessment, the selection of fragility curves and performance indicators, as well as the systemic analysis, the sources of uncertainties, the estimation of socio-economic impacts and finally the interpretation of results.
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis
Chapter 7. Application to the City of Thessaloniki
Abstract
This chapter presents the application of the SYNER-G general methodology and tools to the case study of Thessaloniki. The application includes the building stock (BDG), the electric power network (EPN), the water supply system (WSS) and the road network (RDN) with specific interdependencies between systems. The seismic hazard model is based on the seismic zones proposed in the SHARE project (Giardini et al., Seismic hazard harmonization in Europe (SHARE). Online data resource, http://​portal.​share-eu.​org:​8080/​jetspeed/​portal/​. doi:10.​12686/​SED-00000001-SHARE, 2013). For each system, the main features for the systemic analysis and the system topology and characteristics are described. Then the analysis results are presented. They include damages, casualties (deaths, injuries) and displaced people for BDG and connectivity-based Performance Indicators (PIs) for EPN, WSS and RDN systems. Apart from the average performance and the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceedance of the PIs, the distribution of estimated damages and losses for specific events is also given through thematic maps. The significant elements for the functionality of each system are defined through correlation factors to the system PIs. Finally, representative results of the shelter demand analysis are given. They are based on a multi-criteria approach that takes into account the outcomes of the systemic risk analysis for buildings and utility systems as well as other indicators.
Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi, Kyriazis Pitilakis
Chapter 8. Application to the City of Vienna
Abstract
The Vienna use case is an attempt to apply the methods developed in SYNER-G to a small area of the city with very detailed input data. This introduces some major difficulties for both the software as well as the need for systematic high resolution data collection, which are addressed here. The Vienna test case applies a deterministic methodology implemented in EQvis using high resolution building level data with a probabilistic analysis using the SYNER-G methodology and prototype software by accounting for system interdependencies. EQvis, an advanced seismic loss assessment and risk management software based on the Mid-America Earthquake Center software tool MAEviz (MAEviz, MAEviz software tool. http://​mae.​cee.​illinois.​edu/​software_​and_​tools/​maeviz.​html. Accessed Sept 2010, 2010), was further developed and adapted in SYNER-G as a platform for deterministic risk analysis on the above mentioned area. The EQvis case highlights the importance of a user friendly and easy to handle software package. In addition, a powerful visualisation tool for the results plays a major role when dealing with stakeholders. EQvis has brought together all these components in one software solution which is easy to handle.
Helmut Wenzel, David Schäfer, Anna Bosi
Chapter 9. Application to L’Aquila Gas Network
Abstract
This chapter, after an introduction presenting the general framework for the seismic risk assessment of a gas network according to the SYNER-G methodology (Chap. 2), describes the case study of L’Aquila (central Italy) gas distribution system, a 621 km pipeline network managed by Enel Rete Gas s.p.a. and operating at medium- and low-pressure. Subsequently, the main features regarding the implementation of the application study within the SYNER-G framework are reported, and the process for the seismic performance characterization is summarized. Then, the risk analysis of the system is described, and results in terms of connectivity-based performance indicators are presented.
Simona Esposito, Iunio Iervolino
Chapter 10. Application to Selected Transportation and Electric Networks in Italy
Abstract
This chapter presents the application of the SYNER-G general methodology to two regional networks in Southern Italy: the road network of Calabria and the medium-high voltage electric power network of Sicily. Modelling and analysis of a road network, already discussed in Chap. 5, is recalled and further expanded here. The corresponding portion of the object-oriented (OO) model as implemented within SYNER-G is discussed. Then, the case study is presented, in terms of the main methodological choices, system properties (topology, vulnerability) and seismic hazard. Results of the (connectivity-only) analysis are then reported. Similarly, further aspects of the power network model implemented within SYNER-G are given before introducing and discussing the Sicily case study. The analysis of the EPN is carried out in terms of power flows.
Francesco Cavalieri, Paolo Franchin, Paolo Emilio Pinto
Chapter 11. Application to a Network of Hospitals at Regional Scale
Abstract
The seismic performance of a regional Health-Care System (HCS) is investigated. The earthquake effects both on hospitals and on the Road Network (RDN), connecting towns to hospitals, are evaluated and the interaction among them accounted for. Victims move to hospitals until their request for a bed or for a surgical treatment is satisfied, if possible. A novel “dynamic” model for hospitalization is developed and implemented. The road network is modelled in connectivity terms. The vulnerability of hospitals and bridges is expressed by pre-evaluated fragility curves. Seismic hazard is described by a state-of-the-art model. The reliability problem is solved by Monte Carlo simulation. The un-hospitalized victims, the risk that hospitals are unable to provide medical care, the demand of medical care on hospitals, the hospitalization travel time, are among the useful results of the analysis. The methodology is exemplified with reference to a case-study region, with population of 877,000, 20 towns, 5 hospitals and 32 bridges.
Alessio Lupoi, Francesco Cavalieri, Paolo Franchin
Chapter 12. Application in the Harbor of Thessaloniki
Abstract
The SYNER-G methodology and tools for the assessment of the systemic vulnerability and performance of harbors are applied in the case of Thessaloniki’s port, a major export and transport harbor of Greece and the European Union’s closest port to the countries of Southeast Europe. Following the methodological framework for the systemic analysis developed in SYNER-G, waterfront structures, cargo handling equipment, power supply system, roadway system and buildings are examined. The systemic vulnerability methodology and software implementation are first described, followed by the description of the system topology and characteristics and the input for the analysis. Characteristic results of the application are provided and commented. Performance Indicators (PIs) are calculated based on the estimated damages and functionality losses of the different components. Apart of the average performance and the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceedance of the PIs, the distribution of estimated damages and losses for a specific event is also given through thematic maps. The most critical elements for the functionality of the port system are defined through correlation factors to the system PIs. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty related to the use of different fragility functions and functionality definitions is investigated by performing selected sensitivity analyses.
Kalliopi Kakderi, Jacopo Selva, Kyriazis Pitilakis
Chapter 13. Recapitulation and Future Challenges
Abstract
This chapter briefly recapitulates the main achievements of SYNER-G project on the systemic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of buildings, lifelines and infrastructures. Essential needs for future developments and improvements are also summarized.
Kyriazis Pitilakis, Bijan Khazai
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
SYNER-G: Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Complex Urban, Utility, Lifeline Systems and Critical Facilities
herausgegeben von
K. Pitilakis
P. Franchin
B. Khazai
H. Wenzel
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN
978-94-017-8835-9
Print ISBN
978-94-017-8834-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8835-9