3. The American Century in the Wake of COVID

It is common these days to point toward the United States and see a great power going into irreversible decline. The American polity is beset by internal political challenges, and with the onset of the Coronavirus epidemic, America’s political gaps have only widened. Additionally, the country’s aura of invincibility has been shattered as it suffers from the highest COVID death toll of any G20 nation, bringing into question the effectiveness of its system of governance and the quality of American institutions. The contradictions are in many ways so difficult to comprehend, for all its problems the continued might of the United States will persist, culturally, economically and of course militarily. Indeed, the post-COVID world will still be a part of the American century, and it is still in American hands to decide the shape of this world, for now, even as the United States contends with the rise of Beijing, whose power has only increased further despite being the epicentre of the virus in its early days. Whether the two global behemoths can peacefully contend with each other is yet to be determined, but much of the world will continue to look to Washington as the preeminent power, despite the attractiveness of Beijing’s money. In both the European and Pacific theatres, nations look to the United States for leadership and seek to understand its global priorities in order to formulate policies of their own, meaning that the choice is Washington’s to make. This chapter will examine how the epidemic will shape American domestic and foreign policies and in turn the impact this will have on the international system shaped by the United States 75 years ago.