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2022 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

7. The Origins of Political Extremism

verfasst von : Sebastian Jungkunz

Erschienen in: The Nature and Origins of Political Extremism In Germany and Beyond

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

On the individual level, LWE and RWE are both strongly predicted by anomic tendencies, the presence of authoritarian personality traits, and a lack of political support. LWE attitudes are also quite strongly and positively influenced by people’s financial security and the perception of belonging to a disadvantaged group in society. Materialist value orientations rather tend to lead toward the creation or adoption of RWE attitudes. Furthermore, the effect of deprivation on RWE attitudes runs almost entirely through one’s satisfaction with democracy, which implies that RWE attitudes are shaped by a more deeply rooted erosion of democratic support. On the contextual level, it is predominately the availability of far left and far right ideologies that either fosters the development of extremist attitudes directly or that amplifies the individual-level effects of deprivation and erosion of democratic support on such attitudes. Thus, if the vote share of far left parties increases, the likelihood of picking up such rhetoric among the population rises as well. The overall level of unemployment had a positive effect on LWE attitudes 20 years ago but no longer today. The share of foreigners negatively affected the development of RWE attitudes. Finally, LWE and RWE attitudes are highly stable.

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Vorheriges Kapitel The Distribution of Extremist Attitudes Within German Society

Nächstes Kapitel Conclusion

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In 1997, satisfaction with democracy was measured on a three-point scale. Technically, this makes it necessary to estimate a mixed effects model using Monte Carlo integration in Mplus, which does not allow for a standardization of effects of continuous and categorical variables. To ease interpretation and allow comparability between models, I thus treated satisfaction with democracy as a continuous variable (ranging from zero to one) in a linear probability model. The results are highly similar in effect direction compared to the more precise but complex mixed effects model.

In 2003, union members were oversampled in the data. To correct this, I created weights using ipfweight in Stata (Bergmann, 2011).

Evidence that external political efficacy is becoming increasingly important for public opinion can be seen in Belgium, for instance, where it is the main predictor for support for political populism in 2013 (Spruyt et al., 2016).

Results for 2017 should be treated with caution, as the indicators for RWE differ for the most part from previous years (see Table 4.7).

The item was reversed for the analysis.

I provide an example for interpretation below.

I also expected such interaction effects for anomia, authoritarian personality traits, post-materialism, and respondents’ social position. Unfortunately, the data sets used for the MSEM models did not include anomia and authoritarian personality traits. On the other hand, the effects of post-materialism and social position did not vary between context units, which is why I have not included these here.

The effect is conditional on holding the far left vote share at zero, i.e. its mean.

As the coefficient is part of an interaction effect, the effect of satisfaction for democracy is subject to keeping the share of far left parties constant at the mean.

Results for 2009 and 2013 are quite similar to the models presented here. However, as the number of cases is much lower than in 2017 and as there is no data for RWE to compare it with, I omit the presentation of these results here.

The statistics now exclude, among others, people who work part-time but still rely on Hartz IV, people in job training, the unemployed older than 58 and people who are sick or looking for an apprentice position. In addition, there is also a “silent reserve” (Stille Reserve), that should be counted toward the official unemployment figures (Fuchs et al., 2005; Fuchs & Weber, 2010).

Models with random slope effects did not converge.

Potentially, there could also be differences between different subgroups in their reactions to migration or certain events (see further e.g. Jungkunz et al., 2019).

In particular, this applies to LWE models in 2003, which have a low CFI in all analyses. There are two potential limitations. First, the East German nostalgia item was not available and therefore replaced with anti-capitalism. Even though this is certainly another facet of LWE, it taps into a somewhat different dimension of it. However, the results from the CFA of LWE reported earlier in Sect. 5.1 indicated a good fit of the latent construct. Secondly, there was an oversampling of union members in 2003. Even though I weighted the analyses respectively based on objective distributions according to the Mikrozensus, it is possible that these might be somewhat different in their attitudes which cannot be adjusted for through observational data.

Additional models with random slopes for satisfaction with democracy and cross-level effects with the vote share of far left parties did not converge.

The time gap between both studies is roughly twelve months.

The distribution of the latent intercept factor ranges from 0.28 to 0.97.

This is also the case for the 2009–2018 model. But due to the limitations in sample size, I focus on the 2013–2018 model.

The scale of the intercept factor ranges from roughly 0.25 to 0.96.

The distribution of the latent intercept factor ranges from roughly 0.38 to 0.82.

Table 7.14 in the appendix shows separate models for east and west Germany. The correlation between RWE in 2017 and 2018 is 0.83 for the east and 0.81 for the west.

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Titel: The Origins of Political Extremism
verfasst von: Sebastian Jungkunz
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: The Nature and Origins of Political Extremism In Germany and Beyond
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-83335-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-83336-7

Copyright-Jahr: 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83336-7_7