4. The Philippine Pivot to China: Threat to Stability in the West Philippine Sea

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was elected to office in June 2016 and quickly revealed his own pivot to China. Despite the Arbitral Tribunal of the Law of the Sea’s ruling of July 12, 2016 in favor of the Philippines, Duterte downplayed it as he curried favor with China seeking Chinese economic support and investment that did not come up to expectations. In this way, Duterte threatened Philippine sovereign rights over the West Philippine Sea (WPS). By disregarding this ruling, and not seeking the support of the international community to get China to uphold the ruling, Duterte has weakened the Philippines, the position of the other ASEAN claimants, and ASEAN as well. As a result, Chinese pressure in the West Philippine Sea has escalated, and the number of Chinese incursions by maritime militia vessels, Coast Guard, and naval vessels has increased. However, the Philippines has not repudiated the alliance with the United States which is its security anchor and there is hope that the presidential elections of May 2022 will bring changes. This election will be crucial for Philippine foreign policy.