The Reliability of a Heuristic-Holistic Methodology for the Definition of Susceptibility to Destabilization—The Potential Sources of Uncertainty

The results of the approaches to assess the susceptibility to landslides are dependent on the type of approach process, the quantity and quality/resolution of data, and the experience of experts. In all processes, uncertainty is a certainty. This paper aims to identify and list the potential sources of uncertainty and to define the stages in which uncertainties can be inserted in this particular methodology. Using the Digital Elevation Model of the terrain and the geotechnical data, it is intended to establish the hazard related to the mass movements in the area and its spatial distribution. For that purpose, a heuristic-holistic approach is defined. That approach is done by phases. The first phase includes surveying and collecting existing data. The second phase corresponds to the organization, classification, and systematization of all information, using the Geographic Information System. Simultaneously is done a Multi-Criteria Analysis treatment of the data and there are selected the physical factors that more contribute to the instability. In a third phase, it is represented cartographically the variability of the selected factors in the area. The integration of all parameters, cartographically represented, allows to obtain maps of susceptibility. The reliability of the final susceptibility maps is dependent on the uncertainty, especially in a scenario of climate change.