Skip to main content

2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

The Twenty-first Century: The Epoch of Advanced Missile Systems and Growing Vulnerabilities

verfasst von : Matteo Frigoli

Erschienen in: 21st Century Prometheus

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The XXI century have been a broad turnaround for global security in which interstate relationships have been heavily affected by fast-paced military technological developments to which the policy-making process has not kept the pace with. The international security scenario is now degraded due to the inaction of States in front of the new developments in tactical and strategic warfare technologies.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
See, for example, the US Nuclear Posture Review (US DOD 2018); see also the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (Russian Federation 2015),
 
2
Ibid.
 
3
The Midcourse phase of an ICBM is the longest portion of flight lasting about 75% of all the flight. In this phase the munitions have separated from the booster and are flying un-powered. This phase offers the largest time window in which track and intercept the incoming warhead (Evers et al. 2015). See also Cepek (2005).
 
4
See Regan and Anandakrishnan (1993). The early portion of the midcourse phase, after the booster burns out but before the warhead is deployed, is sometimes called the ascent or early-ascent phase. See (Congressional Budget Office 2004).
 
5
Noteworthy, once the warhead reenters from outer space, it would be greatly slowed down by the Earth’s atmosphere. It is estimated that an average ICBM warhead would travel at more than 3 km/s (approximately Mach 8) at impact point (Wilkening 2004, p. 1; Congressional Budget Office 2004, p. x.).
 
6
OTH radars are a type of radar systems which use the ionosphere to refract outgoing radar waves and return signals, enabling the system to detect and track targets that would otherwise be hidden by the curvature of the earth. See Air Combat Command (2012).
 
7
An average ICBM can accelerate the RV to orbital velocities (about 7 km/s or Mach 20). Nevertheless, once the RV reenters from outer space it would be greatly slowed down by the Earth’s atmosphere. It is estimated that an average ICBM RV would travel at more than 3 km/s (approximately Mach 8) at impact point (Mallik 2004, p. 110).
 
8
Boost phase is the portion of flight immediately after launch when the booster accelerates to lift the munitions into the air. It lasts roughly 3–5 min for a long-range missile and as little as 1–2 min for a short-range missile (Chen and Speyer 2008, p. 1).
 
9
In the HTV-2 DARPA experiment, the glider detached from the rocket after 270 s.
 
10
In the pull-up phase, the HGV will orient itself upwards using small thrusters and will enter in the gliding phase by using the lift force generated by its shape (Acton 2015, p. 194).
 
11
See on this subject (Schelling 1970, p. 180).
 
12
Note: Ballistic missiles could reach orbital velocities. See on this (Podvig 2006, pp. 83–85).
 
13
See also Russia’s Poseidon Thermonuclear Torpedo Is No Aircraft-Carrier Killer, available at https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia%E2%80%99s-poseidon-thermonuclear-torpedo-no-aircraft-carrier-killer-40242
 
14
A system capable of disrupting, damaging, or destroying spacecraft in orbit from positions on land, sea, air, or space. (Chapman 2008, p. 370)+.
 
15
The North Korean missile Nodong and the Pakistani missile Ghauri, both derived from SCUDs, could be used to attack satellites (Deblois et al. 2004, pp. 60–61; Hays et al. 2014, p. 73).
 
16
On the contestable nature of conventional deterrence see (Wirtz 2018).
 
17
Indeed, if both opponents are willing to accept a mutual exchange of low-yield nuclear strikes, the one who would then find himself at a disadvantage could prefer to escalate.
 
18
For a detailed list of Autonomous Weapon System see Scharre (2018).
 
19
The Russian Uran-9 autonomous tank is expected to wait hidden for enemy forces to be in the nearing before engaging. See Scharre (2018).
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Aberle, A. 2003. Strategic force multiplier: The importance of space in the Army’s future. Army Space Journal 4. 41–42. Aberle, A. 2003. Strategic force multiplier: The importance of space in the Army’s future. Army Space Journal 4. 41–42.
Zurück zum Zitat Acton, James. 2013. Silver bullet? Asking the right questions about conventional prompt global strike. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for international Peace. Acton, James. 2013. Silver bullet? Asking the right questions about conventional prompt global strike. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for international Peace.
Zurück zum Zitat ———. 2015. Hypersonic boost-glide weapons. Science and Global Security 23 (3). 191–219. ———. 2015. Hypersonic boost-glide weapons. Science and Global Security 23 (3). 191–219.
Zurück zum Zitat ———. 2018. Escalation through entanglement. International Security 43 (1). 56–99.CrossRef ———. 2018. Escalation through entanglement. International Security 43 (1). 56–99.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Adamsky, Dmitry (Dima). 2013. Nuclear incoherence: deterrence theory and non-strategic nuclear weapons in Russia. The Journal of Strategic Studies. Adamsky, Dmitry (Dima). 2013. Nuclear incoherence: deterrence theory and non-strategic nuclear weapons in Russia. The Journal of Strategic Studies.
Zurück zum Zitat Baines, P.J. 2003. Prospects for “Non-Offensive” Defenses, in Space. In New challenges in missile proliferation, missile defense, and space security, ed. J.C. MOLTZ. Monterey: Monterey Institute of International Studies. Baines, P.J. 2003. Prospects for “Non-Offensive” Defenses, in Space. In New challenges in missile proliferation, missile defense, and space security, ed. J.C. MOLTZ. Monterey: Monterey Institute of International Studies.
Zurück zum Zitat Barton, David K., Roger Falcone, Frederick K. Daniel Kleppner, Lamb, et al. 2004. Report of the American Physical Society Study Group on boost-phase intercept systems for national missile defense: Scientific and technical issues, 60. American Physical Society. Barton, David K., Roger Falcone, Frederick K. Daniel Kleppner, Lamb, et al. 2004. Report of the American Physical Society Study Group on boost-phase intercept systems for national missile defense: Scientific and technical issues, 60. American Physical Society.
Zurück zum Zitat Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 2019. Space threat assessment 2019. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 2019. Space threat assessment 2019.
Zurück zum Zitat Chapman, B. 2008. Space warfare and defense. A historical encyclopedia and research guide. Santa Barbara: Bert Chapman. Chapman, B. 2008. Space warfare and defense. A historical encyclopedia and research guide. Santa Barbara: Bert Chapman.
Zurück zum Zitat Chen, Robert, and Jason Speyer (2008): Terminal and Boost Phase Intercept of Ballistic Missile Defense, AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit (18–21 August 2008). Chen, Robert, and Jason Speyer (2008): Terminal and Boost Phase Intercept of Ballistic Missile Defense, AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit (18–21 August 2008).
Zurück zum Zitat Chinese Academy of Military Science. 2013. The science of military strategy. Beijing: Military Science Press. Chinese Academy of Military Science. 2013. The science of military strategy. Beijing: Military Science Press.
Zurück zum Zitat CNS. 2015. Hyper-glide delivery systems and the implications for strategic stability and arms reductions. Washington DC: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. CNS. 2015. Hyper-glide delivery systems and the implications for strategic stability and arms reductions. Washington DC: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Zurück zum Zitat Deblois, B.M., R.L. Garwin, R.S. Kemp, and J.C. Marwell. 2004. Space weapons, crossing the U.S. rubicon. International Security 29 (2004).CrossRef Deblois, B.M., R.L. Garwin, R.S. Kemp, and J.C. Marwell. 2004. Space weapons, crossing the U.S. rubicon. International Security 29 (2004).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Evers, Lanah, Ana Isabel Barros, and Herman Monsuur. 2015. The cooperative ballistic missile defence game. In Decision and gametheory for security: Proceedings of the 4th international conference, ed. Sajal K. Das, Cristina Nita-Rotaru, and Murat Kantarcioglu, 85–86. Fort Worth. November 11-12, 2013: GameSec 2013. Evers, Lanah, Ana Isabel Barros, and Herman Monsuur. 2015. The cooperative ballistic missile defence game. In Decision and gametheory for security: Proceedings of the 4th international conference, ed. Sajal K. Das, Cristina Nita-Rotaru, and Murat Kantarcioglu, 85–86. Fort Worth. November 11-12, 2013: GameSec 2013.
Zurück zum Zitat Fedasiuk, Ryan. 2018. U.S. missile defense and the theater-strategic nexus. New Perspectives in Foreign Policy, Fall 2018 (16). Fedasiuk, Ryan. 2018. U.S. missile defense and the theater-strategic nexus. New Perspectives in Foreign Policy, Fall 2018 (16).
Zurück zum Zitat Ferreira-Snyman, A. 2015. Selected legal challenges relating to the military use of outer space, with specific reference to article IV of the outer space treaty. Potchefstroom Electronic L.J. 18 (3).CrossRef Ferreira-Snyman, A. 2015. Selected legal challenges relating to the military use of outer space, with specific reference to article IV of the outer space treaty. Potchefstroom Electronic L.J. 18 (3).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Goodby, James E., and Theodore A. Postol. 2018. A new boost-phase missile defense system—and its diplomatic uses in the North Korea dispute. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 74 (4).CrossRef Goodby, James E., and Theodore A. Postol. 2018. A new boost-phase missile defense system—and its diplomatic uses in the North Korea dispute. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 74 (4).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gormley, Dennis M. 2015. US advanced conventional systems and conventional prompt global strike ambitions. The NonProliferation Review 22 (n. 2).CrossRef Gormley, Dennis M. 2015. US advanced conventional systems and conventional prompt global strike ambitions. The NonProliferation Review 22 (n. 2).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gresham, John D. 2013. LRASM: Long range maritime strike for air-sea battle. Available at https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/lrasm-long-range-maritime-strike-for-air-sea-battle/ Gresham, John D. 2013. LRASM: Long range maritime strike for air-sea battle. Available at https://​www.​defensemedianetw​ork.​com/​stories/​lrasm-long-range-maritime-strike-for-air-sea-battle/​
Zurück zum Zitat Gubrud, Mark. 2015. Going too fast: Time to ban hypersonic missile tests? A US response. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (5).CrossRef Gubrud, Mark. 2015. Going too fast: Time to ban hypersonic missile tests? A US response. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (5).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hacker, Barton C. 1995. Whoever heard of nuclear Ramjets? Project pluto 1957-1964. Journal of the International Committee for the History of Technology 1. Hacker, Barton C. 1995. Whoever heard of nuclear Ramjets? Project pluto 1957-1964. Journal of the International Committee for the History of Technology 1.
Zurück zum Zitat Hays, P., et al. 2014. Space security index # 56. Hays, P., et al. 2014. Space security index # 56.
Zurück zum Zitat Johnson-Freese, Joan. 2009. Heavenly ambitions: America’s quest to dominate space. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. Johnson-Freese, Joan. 2009. Heavenly ambitions: America’s quest to dominate space. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Klein, John L. 2006. Space warfare strategy, principles and policy. Routledge. Klein, John L. 2006. Space warfare strategy, principles and policy. Routledge.
Zurück zum Zitat Koplow, D.A. 2009. Death by moderation: The U.S. military’s quest for useable weapons. Cambridge: Routledge. Koplow, D.A. 2009. Death by moderation: The U.S. military’s quest for useable weapons. Cambridge: Routledge.
Zurück zum Zitat Kristensen, Hans M., and Matt Korda. 2019. Russian nuclear forces. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 75 (2): 2019.CrossRef Kristensen, Hans M., and Matt Korda. 2019. Russian nuclear forces. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 75 (2): 2019.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Leah, Christin M. 2017. The consequences of american nuclear disarmament strategy and nuclear weapons. New York: Palgrave Millan.CrossRef Leah, Christin M. 2017. The consequences of american nuclear disarmament strategy and nuclear weapons. New York: Palgrave Millan.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lele, Ajey. 2019. Disruptive technologies for the militaries and security. Singapore: Springer. Lele, Ajey. 2019. Disruptive technologies for the militaries and security. Singapore: Springer.
Zurück zum Zitat Mallik, Amitav. 2004. Technology and security in the 21st century: A demand-side perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Mallik, Amitav. 2004. Technology and security in the 21st century: A demand-side perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Matthews, E. D. 1996. U.S. space systems: A critical strength and vulnerability (Newport). Matthews, E. D. 1996. U.S. space systems: A critical strength and vulnerability (Newport).
Zurück zum Zitat Nagappa, Rajaram. 2015. Going too fast: Time to ban hypersonic missile tests? An Indian response. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (5).CrossRef Nagappa, Rajaram. 2015. Going too fast: Time to ban hypersonic missile tests? An Indian response. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (5).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat National Research Council. 2007. Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability, Letter Report National Research Council. 2007. Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability, Letter Report
Zurück zum Zitat ———. 2008. U.S. Conventional Prompt Global Strike: Issues for 2008 and Beyond, Committee on Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability. ———. 2008. U.S. Conventional Prompt Global Strike: Issues for 2008 and Beyond, Committee on Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability.
Zurück zum Zitat ———. 2012. Making sense of ballistic missile defense: An assessment of concepts and systems for U.S. boost-phase missile defense in comparison to other alternatives Committee on an assessment of concepts and systems for U.S. Vol. 2012. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives Washington, DC. ———. 2012. Making sense of ballistic missile defense: An assessment of concepts and systems for U.S. boost-phase missile defense in comparison to other alternatives Committee on an assessment of concepts and systems for U.S. Vol. 2012. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives Washington, DC.
Zurück zum Zitat NATO Parliamentary Assembly. 2017. The space domain and allied defense, Defense and Security Committee, Draft Report – 068 DSCFC 17 E, 20 March 2017. NATO Parliamentary Assembly. 2017. The space domain and allied defense, Defense and Security Committee, Draft Report – 068 DSCFC 17 E, 20 March 2017.
Zurück zum Zitat Pace, Steve. 2016. The projects of skunk works 75 years of lockheed martin’s advanced development program. Beverly: Voyageur Press. Pace, Steve. 2016. The projects of skunk works 75 years of lockheed martin’s advanced development program. Beverly: Voyageur Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Podvig, Pavel. 2006. Reducing the risk of an accidental launch. Science and Global Security 14.CrossRef Podvig, Pavel. 2006. Reducing the risk of an accidental launch. Science and Global Security 14.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat RAND. 2017. Hypersonic missile nonproliferation: Hindering the spread of a new class of weapons. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation. RAND. 2017. Hypersonic missile nonproliferation: Hindering the spread of a new class of weapons. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation.
Zurück zum Zitat Regan, Frank J., and Satya M. Anandakrishnan. 1993. Dynamics of atmospheric re-entry. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 1993. Regan, Frank J., and Satya M. Anandakrishnan. 1993. Dynamics of atmospheric re-entry. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 1993.
Zurück zum Zitat Rice, Donald B. 1996. Global reach – Global power. In Peter L. Hays, Brenda J. Vallance, Alan R. Van Tassel (eds.) American Defense Policy 7th edition. Rice, Donald B. 1996. Global reach – Global power. In Peter L. Hays, Brenda J. Vallance, Alan R. Van Tassel (eds.) American Defense Policy 7th edition.
Zurück zum Zitat Scharre, Paul. 2018. Army of None: Autonomous weapons and the future of war. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Scharre, Paul. 2018. Army of None: Autonomous weapons and the future of war. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Zurück zum Zitat Schelling, Thomas C. 1970. Surprise Attack and Disarmament. In Theories of peace and security: A reader in contemporary strategic thought, ed. John Garnett, 1970. New York: Macmillan St Martin’s Press. Schelling, Thomas C. 1970. Surprise Attack and Disarmament. In Theories of peace and security: A reader in contemporary strategic thought, ed. John Garnett, 1970. New York: Macmillan St Martin’s Press.
Zurück zum Zitat Schmitt, M.N. 2006. International law and military operations in space. In Max planck yearbook of united nations law, ed. A. von Bogdandy and R. Wolfrum, vol. 10. Leiden: Brill. Schmitt, M.N. 2006. International law and military operations in space. In Max planck yearbook of united nations law, ed. A. von Bogdandy and R. Wolfrum, vol. 10. Leiden: Brill.
Zurück zum Zitat Schneider, Mark B. 2019. Russian nuclear “de-escalation” of future war. Comparative Strategy 37 (5).CrossRef Schneider, Mark B. 2019. Russian nuclear “de-escalation” of future war. Comparative Strategy 37 (5).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sutyagin, Igor. 2016. Russia’s underwater “doomsday drone”: Science fiction, but real danger, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist. Sutyagin, Igor. 2016. Russia’s underwater “doomsday drone”: Science fiction, but real danger, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist.
Zurück zum Zitat Trenin, Dmitri. 2019. Russian views of US nuclear modernization. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 2019 75 (1): 14–18.CrossRef Trenin, Dmitri. 2019. Russian views of US nuclear modernization. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 2019 75 (1): 14–18.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vittori, K. 2011. Terrorist financing and resourcing. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRef Vittori, K. 2011. Terrorist financing and resourcing. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Watts, B.D. 2001. The military use of space: A diagnostic assessment. Washington, D.C.. Watts, B.D. 2001. The military use of space: A diagnostic assessment. Washington, D.C..
Zurück zum Zitat Wiener, Rachel. 2017. The impact of hypersonic glide, boost-glide and air-breathing technologies on nuclear deterrence. In Project on nuclear issues, ed. Mark Cancian. Lanham: CSIS. Wiener, Rachel. 2017. The impact of hypersonic glide, boost-glide and air-breathing technologies on nuclear deterrence. In Project on nuclear issues, ed. Mark Cancian. Lanham: CSIS.
Zurück zum Zitat Wilkening, Dean A. 2004. Airborne boost-phase ballistic missile defense. Science and Global Security 12 (1).CrossRef Wilkening, Dean A. 2004. Airborne boost-phase ballistic missile defense. Science and Global Security 12 (1).CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Williams, Thomas Karakoian. 2017. Missile defense 2020: Next steps for defending the homeland (CSIS, 2017). Williams, Thomas Karakoian. 2017. Missile defense 2020: Next steps for defending the homeland (CSIS, 2017).
Zurück zum Zitat Wirtz, James J. 2018. How does nuclear deterrence differ from conventional deterrence? Strategic Studies Quarterly 12 (4). Wirtz, James J. 2018. How does nuclear deterrence differ from conventional deterrence? Strategic Studies Quarterly 12 (4).
Zurück zum Zitat Wolter, D. 2005. Common security in outer space and international law. Geneva: Detlev Wolter. Wolter, D. 2005. Common security in outer space and international law. Geneva: Detlev Wolter.
Zurück zum Zitat Woolf, Amy. 2019a. Conventional prompt global strike (PGS) and long-range ballistic missiles, Congressional Research Service Report R41464 (Washington D.C.). Woolf, Amy. 2019a. Conventional prompt global strike (PGS) and long-range ballistic missiles, Congressional Research Service Report R41464 (Washington D.C.).
Zurück zum Zitat ———. 2019b. Nonstrategic nuclear weapons, Congressional Reports Service Report RL32572 (Washington D.C.). ———. 2019b. Nonstrategic nuclear weapons, Congressional Reports Service Report RL32572 (Washington D.C.).
Zurück zum Zitat Zohuri, B. 2016. Directed energy weapons: Physics of high energy lasers (HEL). Albuquerque. Zohuri, B. 2016. Directed energy weapons: Physics of high energy lasers (HEL). Albuquerque.
Metadaten
Titel
The Twenty-first Century: The Epoch of Advanced Missile Systems and Growing Vulnerabilities
verfasst von
Matteo Frigoli
Copyright-Jahr
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28285-1_2