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The Annals of Regional Science

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17.02.2017 | Special Issue Paper

To be (or not to be) resilient over time: facts and causes

verfasst von: Paolo Di Caro

Erschienen in: The Annals of Regional Science | Ausgabe 2/2018

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Abstract

This study provides novel evidence on the resilience of regional labour markets in Italy by applying the nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive modelling approach to newly released data on total, female and industrial employment. Five main conclusions derive from the empirical results. The concept of ecological resilience describes regional evolution in Italy over the past 40 years. Spatial differences in resilience result significant across Italian regions. Female employment registers low resilience dynamics and increasing vulnerability during shocks. Since the first half of nineties national and international destabilizing events contributed to amplify regional divergences. The uneven evolution and performance of the manufacturing sector across Italy provides some explanations on the asymmetric geographical distribution of resilience in this country. The concluding section summarizes the main findings of the work and proposes future avenues of research.

Vorheriger Artikel Measuring resilience to economic shocks: an application to Spain

Nächster Artikel Regional economic resilience: the experience of the Italian local labor systems

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For a more complete discussion on the application of the STAR methodology to the analysis of resilience, see Di Caro (2015a).

The selection of the logistic version of the STAR model has been operated on the basis of the testing procedure discussed by Teräsvirta (1994).

Different interpretations of the unemployment rate are present in the economic literature: the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) approach; the structuralist or mean-shifting view; the unit root or hysteresis hypothesis (Papell et al. 2000).

Tests results, which are available upon request, take into account the presence of one-time unknown break and/or more structural breaks. Stationarity tests have been also conducted for regional employment series, confirming the presence of one unit root or difference stationarity.

The four macro-areas are defined by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) as follows: (i) North-West: Piemonte, Lombardia, Liguria, Valle d’Aosta; (ii) North-East Trentino A.A., Friuli V.G., Veneto, Emilia Romagna; (iii) Centre: Toscana, Marche, Lazio, Umbria; (iv) South: Abruzzo, Calabria, Molise, Puglia, Campania, Basilicata, Sardegna, Sicilia.

The selection of the specific model, with one (LSTR1) or two (LSTR2) threshold(s) point(s), results from the sequential testing procedure discussed in Teräsvirta (2006).

Post-estimation test results, which are available upon request, include the LM test for serially uncorrelated errors, the test for detecting residual nonlinearity, the test for parameter constancy, the ARCH-LM test and the Jacque-Bera test.

It has to be noted that we are not dealing with the analysis of the overall consequences of the European Union on the Italian economy, which opens highly debated questions that are left for future research. In this paper, our interest is limited to the description of some specific channels of influence deriving from the process of European economic integration on the Italian Mezzogiorno and the Italian economic divide.

During the reduced time span, the transition variable (i.e. the Italian unemployment rate) is described by the following summary statistics: 8.8376 (mean), 1.7852 (st.dev.), 5.3005 (min), 12.2452 (max).

Preliminary test results that confirm the presence of LSTAR nonlinearity and post-estimation tests are available from the author upon request.

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Titel: To be (or not to be) resilient over time: facts and causes
verfasst von: Paolo Di Caro
Publikationsdatum: 17.02.2017
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: The Annals of Regional Science / Ausgabe 2/2018
Print ISSN: 0570-1864
Elektronische ISSN: 1432-0592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-017-0816-7

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