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Demography

Erschienen in:

01.05.2011

Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks

verfasst von: Belinda Aparicio Diaz, Thomas Fent, Alexia Prskawetz, Laura Bernardi

Erschienen in: Demography | Ausgabe 2/2011

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Abstract

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual’s peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdependencies across individuals’ transition to parenthood and its timing, we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics: age, intended education, and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members may then influence the agents’ transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social interactions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria during the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

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Technically, this procedure is implemented such that the interval (0,1) is partitioned into subsets according to the probabilities given by Eq. 5. Then the agent draws a random number from the interval (0,1), which determines the choice of a specific value for d.

Analogous to the distribution by age and education, we merge the eight educational groups into three groups.

Mortality is not immediately relevant for the dynamics of the model. However, agents will leave the model population at some point. We apply age-specific mortality rates to model the dropping out of persons from the population rather than just removing agents at a specific age.

Because we have data on birth probabilities only from 1984 onward, we need to combine the 1981 census data with 1984 birth probabilities.

We have also investigated the performance of our model in terms of simulated first-birth probabilities and the total fertility rate, with alternative sets of education-specific influence parameters, as well as alternative goodness-of-fit measures (e.g., maximum metric, Euclidean distance). Our results are not sensitive to these variations.

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Titel: Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks
verfasst von: Belinda Aparicio Diaz
Thomas Fent
Alexia Prskawetz
Laura Bernardi
Publikationsdatum: 01.05.2011
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Demography / Ausgabe 2/2011
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Elektronische ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0023-6

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