3.2.1 Home-end trips
Figure
5 shows the expected modal shift for home-end trips in each of the four scenarios. It was already observed that in the current situation, the majority of the home-end trips are made by bicycle (41%) and bus (43%). In scenarios where these services are not available, the preference of travellers is divided over all means of first/last mile transport available. Some interesting observations for home-end trips solely are further discussed underneath the figure.
First of all, the car is found to be a popular transport mode in each of the four future scenarios, regardless of the type of car available (private or shared). Although the car is currently used for only 5% of the home-end trips (driver + passenger), the car share in each of the four scenarios is 18%, 13%, 17% and 10% respectively. This means that travellers currently do not use the car or do not have a car or driver’s license while they prefer to travel by car to the railway station in the future assuming that the required facilities are available. The data reveals that 32% of the home-end travellers, which equals 74 respondents, prefer to use the car in one or more scenarios. The numbers illustrate that especially younger (0–24, 57%) women (62%) travelling for school/study purposes (51%) prefer to use a car in at least one of the scenarios. As expected, the home-end distances are larger for this group than for the average home-end traveller. More trips with a length of 5-10 km and longer than 10 km are represented in this dataset. Still remarkable is the relatively high share of trips by car which are shorter than 1 km (9%).
Another interesting observation regarding the popularity of the car is found when analysing the characteristics of travellers who choose a private car when available (scenario 1 and 3). Among this group, the percentage of women (72%) is even higher than observed during the previously discussed observation. Travellers aged 0–24 account for almost three quarters (72%) of this group, while the average is 27%. In line with this result, the number of travellers without a driver’s license is also higher and accounts for 40%, which is 20% higher than the average. This illustrates the inexperience of driving a car among a group who prefers to use one.
Both observations show the preference towards the car for specific users of which an explanation is hard to give. Teenagers who do not work yet might get enthusiastic about the idea of travelling by car in the future. However, this does not explain the high share of women among travellers who prefer a car.
The traditional bus remains a popular means of transport in the scenarios where the service is available. In scenario 1 and 2, respectively 31% and 50% of the travellers have a preference for the bus. Additionally, a quarter of the travellers (57 respondents) prefer the bus in both of the scenarios. 82% of this group, already uses the bus in the current situation. Data on the characteristics of these travellers do not show extreme differences regarding the average home-end traveller. Still, a majority of them travels for commuting/business purposes (81%) and falls within the age range of 25–44 and 45–64 (both 39%).
3.2.2 Activity-end trips
Figure
6 shows the Sankey diagram for activity-end trips in each of the four scenario’s. In general, it can be observed that walking remains a high share among activity-end travellers. However, in each scenario, the share decreases considerably. Some interesting observations for activity-end trips solely are further discussed below.
The share of travellers that walk at the activity-end of the trip reduces in each of the four scenarios (44%, 39%, 37% and 42%) relative to the current situation. The data illustrates that although 67% of the activity-end trips are made by foot, 20% of the travellers actually never prefer to walk. This group of travellers prefer not to walk although 82% of them has to walk less than 1 km. The characteristics of the travellers among this group are not considerably different from the average activity-end traveller.
Besides the group of travellers who never prefer to walk, there is a large share of activity-end travellers (30%) who indicate to have a preference for walking in each of the four scenarios. Most of them (94%) do already travel by foot in the current situation. Again, the majority of the trips (71%) are less than 1 km. However, 27% of this group walks a distance of 1-5 km. Characteristic differences are present among this group relative to the average activity-end traveller. The share of men among this group is 65% and also travellers aged 25–44 (45%) are present in larger numbers. This illustrates that middle-aged men travelling for commuting/business purposes (86%) are more willing to walk, regardless of the available transport modes and services.
3.2.3 First/last mile trips in general
In addition to the home-end and activity-end observations, general observations are done. For these observations, both the datasets of home-end trips and activity-end trips are combined. Especially interesting are the new transport modes and services that are included in the scenarios and the characteristics of travellers who are willing to make use of them. Because the number of travellers with a preference for e-scooter and on-board vehicles was relatively low, merging both datasets also provided a more extensive dataset to analyse.
21% of the travellers prefer a shared vehicle when available (in both scenario 2 and 4). The results show that slightly more men (58%) than women (42%) are among this group relative to the average traveller (45% women, Table
1). Another interesting observation is the increased share of travellers aged 25–44 (35%) and 45–64 (40%). Regarding the trip purpose, 78% of the travellers in this group indicate to travel for business/commuting purposes. The preference of travellers towards different sharing forms is equally divided.
21% of the travellers prefer a private vehicle, but no shared vehicle. To analyse this in further detail, the characteristics of travellers who prefer a private vehicle in scenario 1, but subsequently no shared vehicle in scenario 2, are examined. Among the group who do not prefer to share a vehicle, the majority of the travellers are women (52%). In line with the unexpected findings on the previous theme, the share of younger travellers aged 0–19 increased by 5% to a total of 16%. Looking at the trip purpose of the travellers among this group shows larger shares for school/study (25%) and social/recreation (12%) trips.
23% of the travellers prefer a flexible ride service when available (in both scenario 3 and 4). On-demand ride services, both individual and collective, can be seen as a flexible upgrade compared to traditional forms such as the bus. Again, it is interesting to see that older people are more willing to make use of innovative services. The share of travellers aged 45–64 increases by 13% to a total share of 49%, at the expense of groups aged 20–24 (− 5%) and 25–44 (− 10%). An explanation for this can be the accessibility of the bus, which is perceived differently between elderly and youngsters. An on-demand ride service no longer has the issues of accessibility.
12% of the travellers prefer a traditional ride service, but no flexible ride service. Travellers who prefer a traditional ride service in scenario 1, but subsequently no on-demand ride service in scenario 3 are examined. Again, the majority of the travellers (74%) already travels by bus in the current situation. The characteristics of these travellers show that especially teenagers aged 20–24 (30%, + 13%) travelling for school/study purposes (36%, + 15%) are among this group.
10% of the travellers prefer to use a vehicle that is allowed to be taken on-board in at least one of the scenarios. This option was found popular among current cyclists (38%), who probably already bring their vehicle on-board, in the form of a foldable bicycle. This specific type of bicycle was not part of the answer options, and existing users are categorised as general cyclists. The data shows that especially travellers aged 25–44 (43%, + 9%), travelling for commuting/business purposes (78%, + 5%), are among this group. scenarios.
8% of the travellers prefer to use an e-scooter in at least one scenario. Again travellers aged 25–44 (45%, + 12%), travelling for commuting/business purposes (79%, + 6%), are largely represented. Relative to the average traveller (45% women, Table
1), more women (48%) are found to be interested in using an e-scooter in at least one scenario. Another interesting observation is the first/last mile distance of e-scooter fans. Especially trips between 5–10 km (27%, + 14%) are popular among e-scooter fans compared to the average traveller (Table
2), while trips between 1–5 km (33%, − 19%) are less represented. Still, it should be taken into account that only 8% of all travellers indicate to use an e-scooter in at least one scenario, which is relatively low.
With the results and observations presented in this chapter, our research question is answered: ‘what impact do new means of first/last mile transport have on the preference of travellers regarding first/last mile transport?’.
The answer is of course dependent on the scenario that will develop. In this study we distinguished two main driving forces on which the four scenarios were built. On the one hand, the degree to which the vehicle sharing economy develops, and on the other hand, the degree to which ride sharing services are offered.
When shared vehicles (scenario 2 and 4) would replace all private vehicles (scenario 1 and 3), it is expected that some of the travellers will start using other forms of traditional transport such as the bus (home-end, scenario 2) and to a lesser extent walking. For home-end trips in particular, it can be seen that the share of bicycles decreases significantly when only shared vehicles are offered. For activity-end trips this trend is much less visible. Compared to the current situation, the bicycle share is even increasing. This most likely has to do with the availability of the availability of this means of transport at the activity end of the trip in the current situation. For e-scooters the difference in private and shared vehicles is barely visible.
When flexible ride services (scenario 3 and 4) would replace all traditional ride services (scenario 1 and 2), the same observation is visible as when the vehicle sharing economy develops. Travellers shift to traditional transport means such as the private bicycle although to a lesser extent. The flexible ride services are most popular among current bus users but also travellers who currently travel by private bicycle (home-end) or who walk (activity-end) shift to this flexible service.