Skip to main content

2024 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

10. Uncertainty Analysis in Hydrologic Modelling

verfasst von : Vijay P. Singh, Rajendra Singh, Pranesh Kumar Paul, Deepak Singh Bisht, Srishti Gaur

Erschienen in: Hydrological Processes Modelling and Data Analysis

Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Hydrologic models differ regarding hydrologic processes, their parameters, inputs and outputs. Consequently, the results of different models for a particular period for a study area also differ. Uncertainty sources of hydrologic predictions are divided into three groups: uncertainties due to model parameters, uncertainties due to model structure and uncertainties due to observation data (for input and calibration). Another source is the uncertainty generated from boundary conditions, i.e., scenario uncertainty. Different uncertainty analysis techniques are reviewed and summarised to identify which is more appropriate for analysing a particular hydrologic modelling uncertainty. Finally, research prospects on uncertainty analysis of hydrologic modelling are proposed.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Abbaspour KC, Johnson CA, Genuchten MT (2004) Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone J 3(4):1340–1352CrossRef Abbaspour KC, Johnson CA, Genuchten MT (2004) Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone J 3(4):1340–1352CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Abbaspour KC, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J et al (2007) Spatially distributed modelling of hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J Hydrol 333:413–430CrossRef Abbaspour KC, Yang J, Maximov I, Siber R, Bogner K, Mieleitner J et al (2007) Spatially distributed modelling of hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT. J Hydrol 333:413–430CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ajami NK, Duan QY, Sorooshian S (2007) An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction. Water Resour Res 43:W01403CrossRef Ajami NK, Duan QY, Sorooshian S (2007) An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction. Water Resour Res 43:W01403CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat 19:716–723CrossRef Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat 19:716–723CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Balin D, Lee H, Rode M (2010) Is point uncertain rainfall likely to have a great impact on distributed complex hydrological modeling? Water Resour Res 46:W11520CrossRef Balin D, Lee H, Rode M (2010) Is point uncertain rainfall likely to have a great impact on distributed complex hydrological modeling? Water Resour Res 46:W11520CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bates BC, Campbell EP (2001) A Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for parameter estimation and inference in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling. Water Resour Res 37:937–947CrossRef Bates BC, Campbell EP (2001) A Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for parameter estimation and inference in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling. Water Resour Res 37:937–947CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Beven KJ (2012) Rainfall-runoff modeling: the primer, 2nd edn. Wiley-Blackwell, pp 1–18 Beven KJ (2012) Rainfall-runoff modeling: the primer, 2nd edn. Wiley-Blackwell, pp 1–18
Zurück zum Zitat Beven KJ (2016) EGU Leonardo lecture: facets of hydrology–epistemic error, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrol Sci J 61(9):1652–1665CrossRef Beven KJ (2016) EGU Leonardo lecture: facets of hydrology–epistemic error, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrol Sci J 61(9):1652–1665CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Beven K, Binley A (1992) The future of distributed models—model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol Process 6:279–298CrossRef Beven K, Binley A (1992) The future of distributed models—model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol Process 6:279–298CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Blasone RS, Vrugt JA, Madsen H (2008) Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Adv Water Resour 31:630–648CrossRef Blasone RS, Vrugt JA, Madsen H (2008) Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Adv Water Resour 31:630–648CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Braak CA (2006) Markov Chain Monte Carlo version of the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution: easy Bayesian computing for real parameter spaces. Stat Comput 16:239–249CrossRef Braak CA (2006) Markov Chain Monte Carlo version of the genetic algorithm Differential Evolution: easy Bayesian computing for real parameter spaces. Stat Comput 16:239–249CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bredehoeft J (2005) The conceptualization model problem—surprise. Hydrogeol J 13:37–46CrossRef Bredehoeft J (2005) The conceptualization model problem—surprise. Hydrogeol J 13:37–46CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Constantine P, Diaz P (2017) Global sensitivity metrics from active subspaces. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 162:1–13CrossRef Constantine P, Diaz P (2017) Global sensitivity metrics from active subspaces. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 162:1–13CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Draper D (1995) Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 57:45–97 Draper D (1995) Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. J R Stat Soc Ser B Stat Methodol 57:45–97
Zurück zum Zitat Duan QY, Sorooshian S, Gupta HV (1992) Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resour Res 28:1015–1031CrossRef Duan QY, Sorooshian S, Gupta HV (1992) Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resour Res 28:1015–1031CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Erdal D, Cirpka O (2019) Global sensitivity analysis and adaptive stochastic sampling of a subsurface-flow model using active subspaces. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 23(9):3787–3805CrossRef Erdal D, Cirpka O (2019) Global sensitivity analysis and adaptive stochastic sampling of a subsurface-flow model using active subspaces. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 23(9):3787–3805CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Erdal D, Cirpka O (2020) Improved sampling of behavioral subsurface flow model parameters using active subspaces. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 24(9):4567–4574CrossRef Erdal D, Cirpka O (2020) Improved sampling of behavioral subsurface flow model parameters using active subspaces. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 24(9):4567–4574CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Fienen MN, Hunt RJ (2015) High-throughput computing versus high-performance computing for groundwater applications. Groundwater 53(2):180–184CrossRef Fienen MN, Hunt RJ (2015) High-throughput computing versus high-performance computing for groundwater applications. Groundwater 53(2):180–184CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gelfand AE, Hills SE, Racine-Poon A (1990) Illustration of Bayesian inference in normal data models using Gibbs sampling. JASA 85:972–985CrossRef Gelfand AE, Hills SE, Racine-Poon A (1990) Illustration of Bayesian inference in normal data models using Gibbs sampling. JASA 85:972–985CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Haario H, Saksman E, Tamminen J (1999) Adaptive proposal distribution for random walk Metropolis algorithm. Comput Stat 14:375–395CrossRef Haario H, Saksman E, Tamminen J (1999) Adaptive proposal distribution for random walk Metropolis algorithm. Comput Stat 14:375–395CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Haario H, Saksman E, Tamminen J (2001) An adaptive Metropolis algorithm. Bernoulli 7:223–242CrossRef Haario H, Saksman E, Tamminen J (2001) An adaptive Metropolis algorithm. Bernoulli 7:223–242CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hannan EJ, Quinn BG (1979) The determination of the order of an auto-regression. J R Stat Soc B Stat Methodol 41:190–195 Hannan EJ, Quinn BG (1979) The determination of the order of an auto-regression. J R Stat Soc B Stat Methodol 41:190–195
Zurück zum Zitat Harp DR, Vesselinov VV (2012) Analysis of hydrogeological structure uncertainty by estimation of hydrogeological acceptance probability of geostatistical models. Adv Water Resour 36:64–74CrossRef Harp DR, Vesselinov VV (2012) Analysis of hydrogeological structure uncertainty by estimation of hydrogeological acceptance probability of geostatistical models. Adv Water Resour 36:64–74CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hassan AE, Bekhit HM, Chapman JB (2008) Uncertainty assessment of a stochastic hydrologic flow model using GLUE analysis. J Hydrol 362:89–109CrossRef Hassan AE, Bekhit HM, Chapman JB (2008) Uncertainty assessment of a stochastic hydrologic flow model using GLUE analysis. J Hydrol 362:89–109CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hassan AE, Bekhit HM, Chapman JB (2009) Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to quantify parameter uncertainty and its effect on predictions of a hydrologic flow model. Environ Model Softw 24:749–763CrossRef Hassan AE, Bekhit HM, Chapman JB (2009) Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to quantify parameter uncertainty and its effect on predictions of a hydrologic flow model. Environ Model Softw 24:749–763CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hastings WK (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97–109CrossRef Hastings WK (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97–109CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Helton J, Hansen C, Sallaberry C (2012) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 107:44–63CrossRef Helton J, Hansen C, Sallaberry C (2012) Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 107:44–63CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hurvich CM, Tsai CL (1989) Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 76:297–307CrossRef Hurvich CM, Tsai CL (1989) Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 76:297–307CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Jefferson J, Gilbert J, Constantine P, Maxwell R (2015) Active subspaces for sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction of an integrated hydrologic model. Comput Geosci 83:127–138CrossRef Jefferson J, Gilbert J, Constantine P, Maxwell R (2015) Active subspaces for sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction of an integrated hydrologic model. Comput Geosci 83:127–138CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kashyap RL (1982) Optimal choice of AR and MA parts in autoregressive moving average models. IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell 4:99–104CrossRef Kashyap RL (1982) Optimal choice of AR and MA parts in autoregressive moving average models. IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell 4:99–104CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kavetski D, Kuczera G, Franks SW (2006a) Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 1 Theory. Water Resour Res 42:W03407 Kavetski D, Kuczera G, Franks SW (2006a) Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 1 Theory. Water Resour Res 42:W03407
Zurück zum Zitat Kavetski D, Kuczera G, Franks SW (2006b) Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2 Application. Water Resour Res 42:W0340 Kavetski D, Kuczera G, Franks SW (2006b) Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2 Application. Water Resour Res 42:W0340
Zurück zum Zitat Khu S, Werner M (2003) Reduction of Monte-Carlo simulation runs for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 7(5):680–692CrossRef Khu S, Werner M (2003) Reduction of Monte-Carlo simulation runs for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 7(5):680–692CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Krzysztofowicz R (1999) Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model. Water Resour Res 35(9):2739–2750CrossRef Krzysztofowicz R (1999) Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model. Water Resour Res 35(9):2739–2750CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kuczera G (1997) Efficient subspace probabilistic parameter optimization for catchment models. Water Resour Res 33(1):177–185CrossRef Kuczera G (1997) Efficient subspace probabilistic parameter optimization for catchment models. Water Resour Res 33(1):177–185CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kuczera G, Renard B, Thyer M, Kavetski D (2010) There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations with large uncertainties! Hydrol Sci J 55(6):980–991CrossRef Kuczera G, Renard B, Thyer M, Kavetski D (2010) There are no hydrological monsters, just models and observations with large uncertainties! Hydrol Sci J 55(6):980–991CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kumar R, Singh RD, Sharma KD (2005) Water resources of India. Curr Sci 89(10):794–811 Kumar R, Singh RD, Sharma KD (2005) Water resources of India. Curr Sci 89(10):794–811
Zurück zum Zitat Kurtz W, Lapin A, Schilling O, Tang Q, Schiller E, Braun T et al (2017) Integrating hydrological modelling, data assimilation and cloud computing for real-time management of water resources. Environ Model Softw 93:418–435CrossRef Kurtz W, Lapin A, Schilling O, Tang Q, Schiller E, Braun T et al (2017) Integrating hydrological modelling, data assimilation and cloud computing for real-time management of water resources. Environ Model Softw 93:418–435CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Laloy E, Vrugt JA (2012) High-dimensional posterior exploration of hydrologic models using multiple try DREAM(ZS) and high-performance computing. Water Resour Res 48:W01526CrossRef Laloy E, Vrugt JA (2012) High-dimensional posterior exploration of hydrologic models using multiple try DREAM(ZS) and high-performance computing. Water Resour Res 48:W01526CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mantovan P, Todini E (2006) Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J Hydrol 330:368–381CrossRef Mantovan P, Todini E (2006) Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J Hydrol 330:368–381CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mantovan P, Todini E, Martina MLV (2007) Reply to comment by Keith Beven, Paul Smith and Jim Freer on “Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology.” J Hydrol 338:319–324CrossRef Mantovan P, Todini E, Martina MLV (2007) Reply to comment by Keith Beven, Paul Smith and Jim Freer on “Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology.” J Hydrol 338:319–324CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Marshall L, Nott D, Sharma A (2004) A comparative study of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling. Water Resour Res 40:W02501CrossRef Marshall L, Nott D, Sharma A (2004) A comparative study of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling. Water Resour Res 40:W02501CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Merz B, Thieken AH (2009) Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds. Nat Hazards 51:437–458CrossRef Merz B, Thieken AH (2009) Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds. Nat Hazards 51:437–458CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Metropolis N, Rosenbluth A, Rosenbluth M, Teller A, Teller E (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys 21(6):1087–1092CrossRef Metropolis N, Rosenbluth A, Rosenbluth M, Teller A, Teller E (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys 21(6):1087–1092CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Montanari A (2007) What do we mean by ‘uncertainty’? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology. Hydrol Process 21:841–845CrossRef Montanari A (2007) What do we mean by ‘uncertainty’? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology. Hydrol Process 21:841–845CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Neuman SP (2003) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of uncertain model predictions. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:291–305CrossRef Neuman SP (2003) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of uncertain model predictions. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:291–305CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Neuman SP, Wierenga PJ (2003) A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites NUREG/CR-6805. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC Neuman SP, Wierenga PJ (2003) A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites NUREG/CR-6805. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC
Zurück zum Zitat Plummer M, Best N, Cowles K, Vines K (2006) CODA: convergence diagnosis and output analysis for MCMC. R News 6(1):7–11 Plummer M, Best N, Cowles K, Vines K (2006) CODA: convergence diagnosis and output analysis for MCMC. R News 6(1):7–11
Zurück zum Zitat Poeter E, Anderson D (2005) Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling. Groundwater 43:597–605CrossRef Poeter E, Anderson D (2005) Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling. Groundwater 43:597–605CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Post J, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V (2008) Parameter and input data uncertainty estimation for the assessment of long-term soil organic carbon dynamics. Environ Model Softw 23:125–138CrossRef Post J, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V (2008) Parameter and input data uncertainty estimation for the assessment of long-term soil organic carbon dynamics. Environ Model Softw 23:125–138CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon Weather Rev 133:1155–1174CrossRef Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon Weather Rev 133:1155–1174CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Brown J (2006) A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error. Adv Water Resour 29:1586–1597CrossRef Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Brown J (2006) A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error. Adv Water Resour 29:1586–1597CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Renard B, Kavetski D, Kuczera G (2009) Comment on “An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction” by Newsha K Ajami et al. Water Resour Res 45:W03603 Renard B, Kavetski D, Kuczera G (2009) Comment on “An integrated hydrologic Bayesian multimodel combination framework: confronting input, parameter, and model structural uncertainty in hydrologic prediction” by Newsha K Ajami et al. Water Resour Res 45:W03603
Zurück zum Zitat Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A (2008) Conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: combining generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Bayesian model averaging. Water Resour Res 44:W12418CrossRef Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A (2008) Conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: combining generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Bayesian model averaging. Water Resour Res 44:W12418CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A (2009) Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. Hydrol Process 23:1131–1146CrossRef Rojas R, Feyen L, Dassargues A (2009) Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. Hydrol Process 23:1131–1146CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rojas R, Feyen L, Batelaan O (2010a) On the value of conditioning data to reduce conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. Water Resour Res 46:W08520CrossRef Rojas R, Feyen L, Batelaan O (2010a) On the value of conditioning data to reduce conceptual model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. Water Resour Res 46:W08520CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rojas R, Kahunde S, Peeters L (2010b) Application of a multimodel approach to account for conceptual model and scenario uncertainties in hydrologic modelling. J Hydrol 394:416–435CrossRef Rojas R, Kahunde S, Peeters L (2010b) Application of a multimodel approach to account for conceptual model and scenario uncertainties in hydrologic modelling. J Hydrol 394:416–435CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Schwarz G (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6:461–464CrossRef Schwarz G (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6:461–464CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) (2006) Watershed models. Taylor and Francis Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) (2006) Watershed models. Taylor and Francis
Zurück zum Zitat Singh A, Mishra S, Ruskauff G (2010) Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty. Groundwater 48:701–715CrossRef Singh A, Mishra S, Ruskauff G (2010) Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty. Groundwater 48:701–715CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Teukolsky S, Flannery B, Press W, Vetterling W (1992) Numerical recipes in C. SMR 693:59–70 Teukolsky S, Flannery B, Press W, Vetterling W (1992) Numerical recipes in C. SMR 693:59–70
Zurück zum Zitat Thiemann M, Trosset M, Gupta H (2001) Bayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 37:2521–2535CrossRef Thiemann M, Trosset M, Gupta H (2001) Bayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 37:2521–2535CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Todini E (2007) Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11(1):468–482CrossRef Todini E (2007) Hydrological catchment modelling: past, present and future. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11(1):468–482CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Troldborg M, Nowak W, Tuxen N (2010) Uncertainty evaluation of mass discharge estimates from a contaminated site using a fully Bayesian framework. Water Resour Res 46:W12552CrossRef Troldborg M, Nowak W, Tuxen N (2010) Uncertainty evaluation of mass discharge estimates from a contaminated site using a fully Bayesian framework. Water Resour Res 46:W12552CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Tsai FTC, Li X (2008) Inverse hydrologic modeling for hydraulic conductivity estimation using Bayesian model averaging and variance window. Water Resour Res 44:W09434CrossRef Tsai FTC, Li X (2008) Inverse hydrologic modeling for hydraulic conductivity estimation using Bayesian model averaging and variance window. Water Resour Res 44:W09434CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Van Griensven A, Meixner T (2006) Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models. Water Sci Technol 53(1):51–59CrossRef Van Griensven A, Meixner T (2006) Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models. Water Sci Technol 53(1):51–59CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Van Griensven A, Meixner T, Grunwald S, Bishop T, Diluzio A, Srinivasan R (2006) A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models. J Hydrol 324(1–4):10–23CrossRef Van Griensven A, Meixner T, Grunwald S, Bishop T, Diluzio A, Srinivasan R (2006) A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models. J Hydrol 324(1–4):10–23CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vema V, Sudheer K (2020) Towards quick parameter estimation of hydrological models with large number of computational units. J Hydrol 587:124983CrossRef Vema V, Sudheer K (2020) Towards quick parameter estimation of hydrological models with large number of computational units. J Hydrol 587:124983CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vrugt JA (2011) DREAM(D): an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to solve discrete, noncontinuous, posterior parameter estimation problems. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8:4025–4052 Vrugt JA (2011) DREAM(D): an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to solve discrete, noncontinuous, posterior parameter estimation problems. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8:4025–4052
Zurück zum Zitat Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bouten W (2003) A shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resour Res 39:1201CrossRef Vrugt JA, Gupta HV, Bouten W (2003) A shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resour Res 39:1201CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vrugt JA, ter Braak CJF, Diks CGH (2009) Accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by differential evolution with self-adaptive randomized subspace sampling. Int J Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 10:273–290CrossRef Vrugt JA, ter Braak CJF, Diks CGH (2009) Accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by differential evolution with self-adaptive randomized subspace sampling. Int J Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 10:273–290CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Weerts AH, Winsemius HC, Verkade JS (2011) Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the national flood forecasting system (England and Wales). Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15(1):255–265. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-255-2011 Weerts AH, Winsemius HC, Verkade JS (2011) Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the national flood forecasting system (England and Wales). Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15(1):255–265. https://​doi.​org/​10.​5194/​hess-15-255-2011
Zurück zum Zitat White J, Hunt R, Fienen M, Doherty J (2020) Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: PEST++ version 5, a software suite for parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis, management optimization and sensitivity analysis. Technical report, US Geological Survey White J, Hunt R, Fienen M, Doherty J (2020) Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: PEST++ version 5, a software suite for parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis, management optimization and sensitivity analysis. Technical report, US Geological Survey
Zurück zum Zitat Wickham H (2007) Reshaping data with the reshape package. J Stat Softw 21(12):1–20CrossRef Wickham H (2007) Reshaping data with the reshape package. J Stat Softw 21(12):1–20CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wickham H (2011) The split-apply-combine strategy for data analysis. J Stat Softw 40(1):1–29CrossRef Wickham H (2011) The split-apply-combine strategy for data analysis. J Stat Softw 40(1):1–29CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wickham H, Chang W, Henry L, Pedersen TL, Takahashi K, Wilke C et al (2019a) ggplot2: create elegant data visualisations using the grammar of graphics Wickham H, Chang W, Henry L, Pedersen TL, Takahashi K, Wilke C et al (2019a) ggplot2: create elegant data visualisations using the grammar of graphics
Zurück zum Zitat Wilson M, Barnard R, Gauthier J (1994) Total-system performance assessment for Yucca Mountain–SNL second iteration (TSPA-1993). Technical report, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico Wilson M, Barnard R, Gauthier J (1994) Total-system performance assessment for Yucca Mountain–SNL second iteration (TSPA-1993). Technical report, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Zurück zum Zitat Xie Y (2014) knitr: a comprehensive tool for reproducible research in R. In: Stodden V, Leisch F, Peng RD (eds) Implementing reproducible computational research. Chapman and Hall/CRC Xie Y (2014) knitr: a comprehensive tool for reproducible research in R. In: Stodden V, Leisch F, Peng RD (eds) Implementing reproducible computational research. Chapman and Hall/CRC
Zurück zum Zitat Xie Y (2015) Dynamic documents with R and knitr, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall Xie Y (2015) Dynamic documents with R and knitr, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall
Zurück zum Zitat Ye M (2010) MMA: a computer code for multimodel analysis. Groundwater 48:9–12CrossRef Ye M (2010) MMA: a computer code for multimodel analysis. Groundwater 48:9–12CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD (2004) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resour Res 40:W05113CrossRef Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD (2004) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resour Res 40:W05113CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ye M, Pohlmann KF, Chapman JB (2010) A model-averaging method for assessing hydrologic conceptual model uncertainty. Groundwater 48:716–728CrossRef Ye M, Pohlmann KF, Chapman JB (2010) A model-averaging method for assessing hydrologic conceptual model uncertainty. Groundwater 48:716–728CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yen BC, Cheng ST, Melching CS (1986) Stochastic and risk analysis in hydraulic engineering. Water Resources Publications Yen BC, Cheng ST, Melching CS (1986) Stochastic and risk analysis in hydraulic engineering. Water Resources Publications
Zurück zum Zitat Yoon H, Hart DB, McKenna SA (2013) Parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty in stochastic inverse modeling of hydrologic flow: comparing null-space Monte Carlo and multiple starting point methods. Water Resour Res 49:536–553CrossRef Yoon H, Hart DB, McKenna SA (2013) Parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty in stochastic inverse modeling of hydrologic flow: comparing null-space Monte Carlo and multiple starting point methods. Water Resour Res 49:536–553CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yustres A, Asensio L, Alonso J (2012) A review of Markov chain Monte Carlo and information theory tools for inverse problems in subsurface flow. Comput Geosci 16:1–20CrossRef Yustres A, Asensio L, Alonso J (2012) A review of Markov chain Monte Carlo and information theory tools for inverse problems in subsurface flow. Comput Geosci 16:1–20CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zadeh LA (2005) Toward a generalized theory of uncertainty (GTU)––an outline. J Inf Sci 172:1–40CrossRef Zadeh LA (2005) Toward a generalized theory of uncertainty (GTU)––an outline. J Inf Sci 172:1–40CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zeng XK, Wang D, Wu JC (2012) Sensitivity analysis of the probability distribution of hydrologic level series based on information entropy. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26:345–356CrossRef Zeng XK, Wang D, Wu JC (2012) Sensitivity analysis of the probability distribution of hydrologic level series based on information entropy. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26:345–356CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Uncertainty Analysis in Hydrologic Modelling
verfasst von
Vijay P. Singh
Rajendra Singh
Pranesh Kumar Paul
Deepak Singh Bisht
Srishti Gaur
Copyright-Jahr
2024
Verlag
Springer Nature Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-1316-5_10

    Marktübersichten

    Die im Laufe eines Jahres in der „adhäsion“ veröffentlichten Marktübersichten helfen Anwendern verschiedenster Branchen, sich einen gezielten Überblick über Lieferantenangebote zu verschaffen.