There is no single definition of what new mobility solutions are. For the purposes of this paper, there is no need for a precise definition, as the list of technologies discussed is not exhaustive. It focuses on technologies that are either established ‘on the streets’ following 2010 or expected to have a noticeable presence in northern European cities before 2030, drawing on the findings of expert panels and reports (Haarstad et al.
2020, Kristensen et al.
2018, Bakken et al.
2017, Aarhaug et al.
2018). These sources include discussion of a wide range of solutions, but there are common features. Digital technologies constitute a substantive element in many of the technologies; these work as facilitating or general-purpose technologies across sectors (Bresnahan and Trajtenberg
1995). In addition, several mobility-related innovations are not ‘new’ transport services per se, as the physical mobility solutions are often very similar to the pre-existing solutions. Rather, existing mobility options are improved (increasing efficiency) and offered in new ways through different business models, facilitated by the development of digital technologies.
Digitalisation increases opportunity space, as do new broader technologies in general. This is not the same as stating that innovations always make things better: neither technology nor how it is adopted are neutral concepts – new technologies create both winners and losers. Moreover, an individual may be both a winner and a loser, when different measurement criteria are applied. That a technology increases total welfare in society does not mean that the benefit is evenly distributed. Indeed, it often is not. Further, it is not certain that those who most benefit from the new technology will be able (or willing) to compensate those who lose out. As a phenomenon, the use of a new technology is not necessarily distribution- and inclusion-neutral, and how a new technology is introduced to market is not accidental.
2.1 Technology Uptake
Innovation studies have given rise to several conceptual models of how new technology is diffused. One of the classic and most widely used and criticised is that developed by Rogers (
2010/1962). Within this model, the uptake of the new technology follows an s-curve, where a technology moves from being a small niche phenomenon – with users often labelled as ‘trendsetters’, or members of the ‘urban elite’ – through a take-off and acceleration phase; the technology is then gradually adopted by the rest of the population. This model of adoption contrasts with the philosophy of UD: Rogers’ model is an attempt to theorise based on observations, while the concept of UD is inherently normative.
The idea that some forward-leaning, or ‘elite’, individuals use a mobility solution before it spreads to other parts of the population does not have to be a problem in terms of UD. But if the elite’s consumption cannot be replicated across the population, it becomes problematic in terms of UD because it reflects different access to mobility. As an example, a new mobility solution may require a specific type of smartphone (as some hailing services do), payment by credit card (as many private companies require), substantial income (to afford the service) and a driver’s license (in the case of car sharing). A new technology that is only useful for a few will thus not necessarily be universal, and may be at odds with UD as a policy objective.
Avoiding this bias can be difficult. Many of the new mobility technologies that have come on the market are initially aimed at typical ‘early adopters’. These are individuals who also tend to have demographic characteristics that overlap with those who initiate the new technologies. In addition, many new technologies are developed in and for a world market. Low replication cost is a key component of digitalisation. User participation may be limited to the question of how the technology should be introduced in the specific locality, rather than how the solution is designed. This may reduce the scope for adaption to address the needs of other user groups than those upon which the developers initially focused.
2.2 Examples of New Technologies
A common denominator for the technologies selected in this work is that they have been influenced by the development of digital technologies. In this way, and as mentioned earlier, they can be labelled as part of the fifth technological revolution, following Perez’ (
2003) classification. Digitalisation can be understood as the way digital technologies are introduced into society. Here, an important component is how information is transferred from being a physical to a digital entity – transformed from atoms to bits (Negroponte et al.
1997). This means that replication costs associated with information drop dramatically, and the movement of information is decoupled from the movement of physical entities. This allows a series of new services, and new ways of offering pre-existing services. Information, including vehicle location and status, can be made available for existing and potential travellers at low cost, reducing the disutility of travelling (Flügel et al.
2020).
Digitisation thus provides an opportunity to establish new service offerings based on available information both commercially and non-commercially. This helps potential travellers make more informed choices about when, where and how they travel. At the same time, it can also help to increase the divide between those who have access to this information, for example through the use of smartphones, and those who do not. This points back at the concept of universality and main solutions. Does it mean that the mobility system should include mobility solutions for all, or that each element of the mobility system should be accessible for all?
Predicting the future is challenging. In relation to mobility, the practice has long been to make predictions based on modelling along established trends. This approach has been criticised for creating lock-ins in established technologies. To address how new technologies play-in in future mobility, several methods have been used, including modelling with (very) alternative assumptions, backcasting and scenario building. For the purpose of creating a coherent discussion, this chapter makes no independent effort to assess which technologies are relevant. Instead, as noted above, it uses a list identified by the Norwegian Board of Technology as a starting point (Table
1) and adds to this by using examples and assessing UD relevance. In Table
1, UD relevance is judged based on discussions between the author and other researchers with experience from UD and technology implementation.
Table 1.
Transport innovations adapted from (Aarhaug
2022)
Digital transport systems |
Mobility platforms/Mobility as a Service (MaaS) | Pilot/upscaling | Whim, Bolt, various apps and projects from PTAas | Large |
Cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) | Different stages | | Large |
Micromobility |
Electric bikes and e-scooters | Established | In common use | Some |
Shared micromobility | Established | VOI, Urban Sharing, TIER, BOLT etc | Some, most discussion from externalities (misuse) |
Autonomous micromobility | Experimental | | Potentially large |
Car/taxi |
Electric vehicles (EVs) | Established | Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from most producers | Some |
Car sharing | Established | Bilkollektivet, Hertz-bilpool, Hyre etc | Some |
Taxi apps (ridesourcing, ridehailing, TNCbs etc.) | Established | Uber, Bolt, Yango, MyTaxi | Some |
Ridesharing | Established | GoMore, BlaBlaCar, various | Small |
Autonomous vehicles | Pilot | Waymo | Potentially enormous |
Taxi drones | Pilot | EHang | Small |
Public transport |
On-demand bus services (DRT) | Established | Various | Large |
Autonomous small buses | Established | | Large |
Autonomous bus fleets | Pilot | | Small |
Autonomous ferries | Pilot | | Small |
In Table
1, small UD relevance means that the technology is judged to not directly impact UD, and thus is less relevant for UD policies. Some UD relevance means that the technology impacts mobility in a heterogeneous way (mainly by providing advantages to some users and possible disadvantages to others), and that this differentiation is linked to users’ characteristics. The differentiation may not be directly related to mobility impairments, but is changing the mobility market in a way that influences persons with disabilities. An example would be a reorganisation of the taxi/non-emergency vehicle-for-hire markets, by removing requirements for operators to provide wheelchair-accessible vehicles. Large impact is when the technology is judged to influence persons with mobility impairments directly.
The following text focuses on the technologies that are expected to be most relevant in a UD context.
Mobility as a service (MaaS) is a digital platform that connects various mobility offerings from different modes through a single user interface. In this innovation, the main issues are related to implementation, not the development of the technology. As pointed out by Smith and Hensher (
2020), MaaS actors have had more success in developing the technology than in functioning as economic and organisational entities. Theoretically, MaaS should increase the possible user group for a particular mobility mode, through reducing the barrier created by lack of information and creating a possibility for nudging; it is possible to inform travellers of various characteristics of the service in question at lower cost. The drawback, in a UD context, is that MaaS requires digital skills and smartphone access. Other potential issues are related to a fragmentation of responsibility: this issue arises when the operator providing the service is not the same as the one interacting with the customer at the point of booking.
Cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) refers to transport systems where two or more sub-systems are able to communicate. This may include vehicles that can communicate with other vehicles and/or infrastructure components. This is not a single technology, rather it is a set of technologies that can gradually contribute to more interconnected mobility systems and automation. C-ITS can help to make mobility more universally designed, by providing access to more and better information about real-world events in the system. An example of this is geofencing, which can limit access to dynamically defined zones: regulating speed and enforcing parking restrictions for electric scooters, introducing zero-emission zones etc. Another example of C-ITS are ‘beacons’ that can make time- and place-specific information about the mobility service available for visually impaired people.
Micromobility is a common term for small vehicles, including e-bikes, e-scooters and skateboards (Fearnley
2021). Some are designed to be used in mixed traffic with pedestrians. To the extent that these vehicles replace cars and vans, they can contribute to make the street space more available to softer travellers. However, when introduced to pedestrian areas, they typically increase the weight and speed of vehicles in these areas.
E-bikes make biking more accessible, and enable a wider segment of the population to bike further (Fyhri and Sundfør
2020). E-scooters provide access to individual motorised mobility for persons who would otherwise have less access to motorised mobility, being cheaper than taxis and private cars and more available than public transport. For persons with disabilities, issues with e-scooters are largely related to parking. That these small vehicles are left on the pavement is a problem, as they may get in the way of wheelchair users and can be a danger to the visually impaired.
Shared micromobility consists of bicycles, e-bikes or e-scooters that can be rented via subscriptions or on a per-trip basis. This decouples ownership and use and is expected to improve access and reduce the threshold for using the technology. Still, user surveys indicate that the majority of the users are young, wealthy, without disabilities and using the services in city centres (Fearnley et al.
2022a).
Autonomous micromobility represent a future iteration of small vehicles. It is still in the concept phase but has the potential to solve many of today’s issues with micromobility. Having the vehicles drive autonomously may facilitate access to the service, including for the visually impaired. It may also potentially reduce the issues with misplaced bikes and e-scooters.
Electrification helps to make cars less polluting. By itself electrification has little effect on UD and accessibility. Still, battery electric vehicles (BEV) can serve as an illustration of how new technology is introduced to the market, without taking UD into account. The first BEVs that came on the market were only suitable to meet the needs of a small segment of the population. There were few models, with a short range, high purchase cost, and limited publicly available charging points. As the technology has become more mature, more models are available and BEV can cover a wider range of needs. Although they can replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE), BEVs are still cars. Charging – especially rapid charging – requires a relatively functional person to operate the charger. Moreover, driving requires a license, and the cost of owning and operating a vehicle exclude many.
Car sharing enables car access without having to own a car. In practical terms, car sharing reduces the barrier for each trip, compared to car renting, while still having a higher barrier than private car ownership. Car sharing can reduce car ownership, parking needs and emissions from car ownership in urban areas (Chen and Kockelman
2016). This can help free up space for other types of road users and have a positive effect on accessibility. At the same time, it is not clear how car sharing will affect city space and car ownership in the long run, since the usage patterns and motivations for participation are still under development (Julsrud and Farstad
2020). The implications of car sharing for UD are also uncertain. Car sharing is aimed at people who are able to drive cars with a standardised design and exclude people who cannot use such cars. In this way, it can be argued that car sharing may increase the differences between those who are ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ the norm. However, this line of argument seems a bit extreme.
Ridesourcing is one of many terms used to describe new, platform-organised, taxi-like services. Other terms include transport network companies (TNCs) and ridehailing. The main effect of these services has been to make taxi travel – traditionally the most accessible form of motorised mobility – available for more people. The services are also generally perceived as safer than pre-existing services, further reducing the barriers to use (Aarhaug and Olsen
2018). The potential downside is linked to reduced scope for local authorities to regulate the supply, which may (as is the case in Norway) reduce the number of wheelchair-accessible vehicles (Aarhaug et al.
2020). This raises the question concerning at what level a system should be accessible. Is it sufficient to have access to some vehicles, or does every vehicle in a fleet need to be accessible? The latter would be more expensive and likely require some form of economic transfer, as the market solutions seem to focus on a narrower user segment than what UD dictates.
Autonomous cars have the potential to radically change the mobility system (Docherty et al.
2018, Nenseth et al.
2019). An expectation is that autonomous cars will make car-based mobility accessible to a larger part of the population. In extension, this will lead to an increase in mobility, especially for those who currently do not have access to their own car. Here, downsides include increased traffic and energy use, unless strict policies are introduced. The outcome will be highly policy dependent. Autonomous vehicles may well blur the distinction between private and public transport (Enoch
2015, Seehus et al.
2018). Automation may reduce the cost associated with providing the service, allowing public transport with higher frequency and or more flexibility for similar cost. This should increase the attractiveness of public transport relative to other modes. However, many questions relating to how autonomous vehicles will be perceived and regulated is still unanswered.
Demand responsive transport can be seen as closely resembling MaaS, by making a public transport service available on demand, through a potentially multimodal platform. This should point towards increased accessibility and improved UD. The potential downside is linked to the difficulty associated with communicating such services to vulnerable groups (Skartland and Skollerud
2016). In parallel to other services that rely on the automated processing of bookings, issues may arise concerning a lack of the correct tools or knowledge to order the services.
2.3 Impacts of New Technology
Common across these new technologies is that the innovations are mainly about combining existing elements and services in a new way. Here, the possibility of a better user interface through connection to smartphones has been particularly important. Looking ahead, it seems that autonomous vehicles, in addition to emissions-reducing technology, will also become increasingly important. If autonomous vehicles are used to a greater extent, it will have major consequences – both for how people think about transport and accessibility to mobility services. This is a field that is being researched, but where there is still a great deal of uncertainty.
Lenz (
2020) points out that in addition to the obvious gains involving better information flow and greater access to information about transport services, there are many factors related to new transport technology and smart mobility that are poorly elucidated. For example, data flow across systems presents new challenges in terms of risk, ownership and responsibility. Many aspects of new mobility technology influence different users in different ways, potentially creating new inequalities. This applies along several dimensions, and is often under-communicated. The typical user of new mobility services described by Lenz (
2020) has many similarities with the typical early adapter in traditional technological transition frameworks: young, wealthy, technology-oriented and able-bodied. Depending on whether and how quickly uptake of the new technology spreads to the rest of the population, this may mean that the segment of the population that has access to mobility services becomes both larger and smaller. The optimistic expectation is that more mobility may be available to more people; the negative expectation is that the differences between people’s access to mobility increase, as a result of some gaining access to better services while others retain their current mobility – or lose some of this mobility as users who can select the new services. Still, there are a number of examples of user participation in the development and implementation of new technology in the transport sector, especially related to public transport. There are also a number of technological developments that support inclusion. Examples of such technologies include navigation solutions for the visually impaired on smartphones, and contactless payment using mobile phones, which makes it possible to avoid vending machines for tickets and various forms of driver assistance. It seems that the consequences of new technology are mainly determined by how the technology is used and what frameworks and regulations are established, and not just the technology in isolation. While the opportunity space is increasing, the benefits may not necessarily reach everyone.