nach oben

Erschienen in:

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Urban Mobility Transition to Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach

verfasst von : Vasiliki V. Georgatzi, Yeoryios Stamboulis

Erschienen in: Advances in Mobility-as-a-Service Systems

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Urban Mobility (UM) faces transition, in an era of global transformation under the pressures of increasing urbanization, aging and saturated infrastructures, extreme pollution levels, and technological disruption. Until now, researchers have analyzed the transition of UM through a variety of approaches, focusing mainly in technological issues. Existing studies are mostly qualitative, while quantitative ones usually have partial focus, without considering a whole system being in transition. Policies, initiatives and strategies may result in converging, conflicting or even competing outcomes, as a result of the interaction of the different actors belonging to the subsystems of an examining system. We consider UM as a socio-technical regime in transition, prone to external and internal pressures and equipped with adaptive capacity for a more or less successful transition towards new modes of UM. We illustrate the interactions of the system using system dynamics methodology that helps us capture the dynamics of the multiple interactions taking place at different levels and interacting helices (government, academia, industry, civil society) during the transition process.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel The Impact of Megatrends on the Transition from Car-Ownership to Carsharing: A Delphi Method Approach

Nächstes Kapitel Children’s Safe and Sustainable Independent Mobility

Feng, Y.Y., Chen, S.Q., Zhang, L.X.: System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a case study of Beijing China. Ecol. Model. 252, 44–52 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2012.09.008CrossRef

Adeniyi, I., Swan, J.C.W.: Barriers to low carbon transitions and energy system innovations. In: 14th International Postgraduate Research Conference 2019: Contemporary and Future Directions in the Built Environment, Manchester, pp. 547–557 (2019)

Papachristos, G.: Transition inertia due to competition in supply chains with remanufacturing and recycling: a systems dynamics model. Environ. Innov. Societal Transitions 12, 47–65 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2014.01.005CrossRef

Geels, F.W.: Low-carbon transition via system reconfiguration? a socio-technical whole system analysis of passenger mobility in Great Britain (1990–2016). Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 46, 86–102 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.07.008CrossRef

Jittrapirom, P., Marchau, V., van der Heijden, R., Meurs, H.: Future implementation of mobility as a service (MaaS): Results of an international Delphi study. Travel Behaviour and Society 21, 281–294 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2018.12.004 (In Press)CrossRef

Kamargianni, M., Li, W., Matyas, M., Schäfer, A.: A critical review of new mobility services for urban transport. Transp. Res. Procedia 14, 3294–3303 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.277CrossRef

Polydoropoulou, A., Pagoni, I., Tsirimpa, A., Roumboutsos, A., Kamargianni, M., Tsouros, I.: Prototype business models for Mobility-as-a-Service. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 131, 149–162 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.035CrossRef

Geels, F.W.: The multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions: Responses to seven criticisms. Environ. Innov. Societal Transitions 1(1), 24–40 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2011.02.002CrossRef

Geels, F.W., Sovacool, B.K., Schwanen, T., Sorrell, S.: Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization. Science 357(6357), 1242–1244 (2017a). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao3760CrossRef

10.

Geels, F.W., Sovacool, B.K., Schwanen, T., Sorrell, S.: The socio-technical dynamics of low-carbon transitions. Joule 1(3), 463–479 (2017b). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.09.018CrossRef

11.

Sarasini, S., Linder, M.: Integrating a business model perspective into transition theory: the example of new mobility services. Environ. Innov. Societal Transitions 27, 16–31 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2017.09.004CrossRef

12.

Schot, J., Geels, F.W.: Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy. Technol. Anal. Strat. Manag. 20(5), 537–554 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802292651CrossRef

13.

Lachman, D.A.: A survey and review of approaches to study transitions. Energy Policy 58, 269–276 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.013CrossRef

14.

Han, J., Hayashi, Y.: A system dynamics model of CO2 mitigation in China’s intercity passenger transport. Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ. 13, 298–305 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2008.03.005CrossRef

15.

Vergis, S., Turrentine, T.S., Fulton, L., Fulton, E.: Plug-in electric vehicles: a case study of seven markets (2014). https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5ps3z0f5

16.

Stepp, M.D., Winebrake, J.J., Hawker, J.S., Skerlos, S.J.: Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness. Energy Policy 37(7), 2774–2787 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.013CrossRef

17.

Shepherd, S., Bonsall, P., Harrison, G.: Factors affecting future demand for electric vehicles: a model based study. Transp. Policy 20, 62–74 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2011.12.006CrossRef

18.

Zhang, T., Gensler, S., Garcia, R.: A study of the diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles: an agent-based modeling approach. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 28(2), 152–168 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00789.xCrossRef

19.

Janssen, A., Lienin, S.F., Gassmann, F., Wokaun, A.: Model aided policy development for the market penetration of natural gas vehicles in Switzerland. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 40(4), 316–333 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2005.06.006CrossRef

20.

Ulli-Beer, S., Bosshardt, M., Dietrich, P., Wokaun, A.: What alternative drive-train technologies and policies are needed to meet a 50% CO 2 reduction target? The case of the EU-fleet (No. 2009–01–0319). SAE Technical Paper (2009). https://doi.org/10.4271/2009-01-0319

21.

Armenia, S., Baldoni, F., Falsini, D., Taibi, E.: A system dynamics energy model for a sustainable transportation system. In Paper delivered at the ISDC Conference, Seoul, South Korea (2010)

22.

Santos, G., Behrendt, H., Maconi, L., Shirvani, T., Teytelboym, A.: Part I: Externalities and economic policies in road transport. Res. Transp. Econ. 28(1), 2–45 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2009.11.002CrossRef

23.

Kwon, T.H.: (2012) Strategic niche management of alternative fuel vehicles: a system dynamics model of the policy effect. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 79(9), 1672–1680 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.015CrossRef

24.

Struben, J., Sterman, J.D.: Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems. Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des. 35(6), 1070–1097 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1068/b33022tCrossRef

25.

Geum, Y., Lee, S., Park, Y.: Combining technology roadmap and system dynamics simulation to support scenario-planning: a case of car-sharing service. Comput. Ind. Eng. 71, 37–49 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2014.02.007CrossRef

26.

Jifeng, W.A.N.G., Huapu, L.U., Hu, P.E.N.G.: System dynamics model of urban transportation system and its application. J. Transp. Syst. Eng. Inf. Technol. 8(3), 83–89 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1570-6672(08)60027-6CrossRef

27.

Pangbourne, K., Mladenović, M.N., Stead, D., Milakis, D.: Questioning mobility as a service: unanticipated implications for society and governance. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 131, 35–49 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.033CrossRef

28.

Karlsson, I.C.M., Mukhtar-Landgren, D., Smith, G., Koglin, T., Kronsell, A., Lund, E., Sarasini, S., Sochor, J.: Development and implementation of Mobility-as-a-Service – a qualitative study of barriers and enabling factors. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 131, 283–295 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.028CrossRef

29.

Kim, K.: Can carsharing meet the mobility needs for the low-income neighborhoods? lessons from carsharing usage patterns in New York City. Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 77, 249–260 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.020CrossRef

30.

Barisa, A., Rosa, M.: A system dynamics model for CO2 emission mitigation policy design in road transport sector. Energy Procedia 147, 419–427 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2018.07.112CrossRef

31.

Walther, G., Wansart, J., Kieckhäfer, K., Schnieder, E., Spengler, T.S.: Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 26(3), 239–261 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.453CrossRef

32.

Lei, X., Zhang, J., Li, J.: A system dynamics model for urban low-carbon transport and simulation in the city of Shanghai, China. AISS Adv. Inf. Sci. Serv. Sci. 4(1), 239–246 (2012). https://doi.org/10.4156/aiss.vol4.issue1.31CrossRef

33.

Kieckhäfer, K., Wachter, K., Spengler, T.S.: Analyzing manufacturers’ impact on green products’ market diffusion–the case of electric vehicles. J. Cleaner Prod. 162, S11–S25 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.021CrossRef

34.

Köhler, J., Whitmarsh, L., Nykvist, B., Schilperoord, M., Bergman, N., Haxeltine, A.: A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecol. Econ. 68(12), 2985–2995 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.027CrossRef

35.

Köhler, J., Turnheim, B., Hodson, M.: Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 151, 119314 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.003CrossRef

36.

Smith, G., Sochor, J., Karlsson, I.M.: Mobility as a Service: development scenarios and implications for public transport. Res. Transp. Econ. 69, 592–599 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2018.04.001CrossRef

37.

Moradi, A., Vagnoni, E.: A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: what are the future transition pathways? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 126, 231–243 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.002CrossRef

38.

Bernardino, J., Aggelakakis, A., Reichenbach, M., Vieira, J., Boile, M., Schippl, J., Krail, M.: Transport demand evolution in Europe–factors of change, scenarios and challenges. Eur. J. Fut. Res. 3(1), 1–13 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0072-yCrossRef

39.

Geels, F.W.: Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations : refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72, 681–696 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2004.08.014CrossRef

40.

Etzkowitz, H., Leydesdorff, L.: The Triple Helix--University-industry-government relations: a laboratory for knowledge based economic development. EASST Rev. 14(1), 14–19 (1995). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2480085

41.

Leydesdorff, L.: The triple helix, quadruple helix,…, and an N-tuple of helices: explanatory models for analyzing the knowledge-based economy? J. Knowl. Econ. 3(1), 25–35 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-011-0049-4CrossRef

42.

Carayannis, E.G., Barth, T.D., Campbell, D.F.J.: The Quintuple Helix innovation model: global warming as a challenge and driver for innovation. J. Innov. Entrepreneurship 1, 1–12 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-5372-1-2CrossRef

43.

de Coninck, H., Puig, D.: Assessing climate change mitigation technology interventions by international institutions. Clim. Change 131(3), 417–433 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1344-zCrossRef

44.

Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York (2000)

45.

Casey, T.R., Töyli, J.: Dynamics of two-sided platform success and failure: an analysis of public wireless local area access. Technovation 32(12), 703–716 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2012.08.003CrossRef

46.

Shepherd, S.P.: A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation. Transp. B Transp. Dyn. 2(2), 83–105 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/21680566.2014.916236MathSciNetCrossRef

47.

Papachristos, G.: A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions. Environ. Innov. Societal Transitions 1(2), 202–233 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2011.10.001CrossRef

48.

Sheller, M.: Automotive emotions: feeling the car. Theory Cult. Soc. 21, 221–242 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276404046068CrossRef

Titel: Urban Mobility Transition to Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach
verfasst von: Vasiliki V. Georgatzi
Yeoryios Stamboulis
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Advances in Mobility-as-a-Service Systems
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-61074-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-61075-3

Copyright-Jahr: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61075-3_52

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Premium Partner