A multiple approach for the evaluation of the spatial distribution and dynamics of a forest habitat: the case of Apennine beech forests with Taxus baccata and Ilex aquifolium

An approach integrating phytosociological and stand structure surveys with the predictive modelling of species distribution was applied to analyse the spatial distribution and dynamics of the Apennine beech forests with Taxus and Ilex, a high conservation priority forest habitat in Europe. The homogeneity of the habitat was tested trough a Mann–Whitney test between beech woods with Taxus and those with Ilex with respect to climatic, topographic, structural and environmental parameters: the former have proven to be more microthermic, mesophilous and characterised by a closer canopy. Five statistical models were compared to analyse the relationship between bioclimatic parameters and Taxus and Ilex spatial distribution: Regression Tree Analysis, the most efficient model, has shown that the distribution of Taxus is influenced by precipitation variables, while Ilex is mainly influenced by temperature variables. This model highlighted that Ilex has a potential area that surrounds, at lower altitudes, that of Taxus. A stepwise multiple regression analysis has been applied to identify the factors influencing the regeneration of the two species: beside climatic parameters, Taxus regeneration is negatively influenced by soil nitrate concentration (an indicator of livestock disturbance) while Ilex is negatively influenced by beech forest cover. Traditional management practices seem to have an effect on the regeneration of the two species: frequent cuts favour the regeneration of Ilex, reducing the forest cover and allowing more light penetration, while Taxus, less resistant to grazing livestock, is confined to more inaccessible places. The multiple approach has proven to be useful for the elaboration of two differentiated conservation strategies for the two beech forest types.