Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Lifetime Data Analysis 1/2023

02.10.2022

A uniformisation-driven algorithm for inference-related estimation of a phase-type ageing model

verfasst von: Boquan Cheng, Rogemar Mamon

Erschienen in: Lifetime Data Analysis | Ausgabe 1/2023

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the likelihood of the phase-type ageing model. The proposed algorithm uses the uniformisation method to stabilise the numerical calculation. It also utilises a vectorised formula to only calculate the necessary elements of the probability distribution. Our algorithm, with an error’s upper bound, could be adjusted easily to tackle the likelihood calculation of the Coxian models. Furthermore, we compare the speed and the accuracy of the proposed algorithm with those of the traditional method using the matrix exponential. Our algorithm is faster and more accurate than the traditional method in calculating the likelihood. Based on our experiments, we recommend using 20 sets of randomly-generated initial values for the optimisation to get a reliable estimate for which the evaluated likelihood is close to the maximum likelihood.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Al-Mohy A, Higham N (2009) A new scaling and squaring algorithm for the matrix exponential. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 31:970–989MATHCrossRef Al-Mohy A, Higham N (2009) A new scaling and squaring algorithm for the matrix exponential. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 31:970–989MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Asmussen S, Nerman O, Olsson M (1996) Fitting phase-type distributions via the EM algorithm. Scand J Stat 23:419–441MATH Asmussen S, Nerman O, Olsson M (1996) Fitting phase-type distributions via the EM algorithm. Scand J Stat 23:419–441MATH
Zurück zum Zitat Asmussen S, Laub J, Yang H (2019) Phase-type models in life insurance: Fitting and valuation of equity-linked benefits. Risks 7(1):17CrossRef Asmussen S, Laub J, Yang H (2019) Phase-type models in life insurance: Fitting and valuation of equity-linked benefits. Risks 7(1):17CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bickart T (1968) Matrix exponential: Approximation by truncated power series. Proc IEEE 56:872–873CrossRef Bickart T (1968) Matrix exponential: Approximation by truncated power series. Proc IEEE 56:872–873CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bobbio A, Cumani A (1992) ML estimation of the parameters of a PH distribution in triangular canonical form. Computer Performance Evaluation 22:33–46 Bobbio A, Cumani A (1992) ML estimation of the parameters of a PH distribution in triangular canonical form. Computer Performance Evaluation 22:33–46
Zurück zum Zitat Byrd R, Hribar M, Nocedal J (1999) An interior point algorithm for large-scale nonlinear programming. SIAM J Optim 9(4):877–900MATHCrossRef Byrd R, Hribar M, Nocedal J (1999) An interior point algorithm for large-scale nonlinear programming. SIAM J Optim 9(4):877–900MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Byrd R, Gilbert J, Nocedal J (2000) A trust region method based on interior point techniques for nonlinear programming. Math Program 89(1):149–185MATHCrossRef Byrd R, Gilbert J, Nocedal J (2000) A trust region method based on interior point techniques for nonlinear programming. Math Program 89(1):149–185MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cheng B, Jones B, Liu X, Ren J (2021) The mathematical mechanism of biological aging. North American Actuarial Journal 25:73–93MATHCrossRef Cheng B, Jones B, Liu X, Ren J (2021) The mathematical mechanism of biological aging. North American Actuarial Journal 25:73–93MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Choudhury A, Choudhury D, Roy B (1968) On the evaluation of \(e^{A\tau }\). Proc IEEE 56:1110–1111CrossRef Choudhury A, Choudhury D, Roy B (1968) On the evaluation of \(e^{A\tau }\). Proc IEEE 56:1110–1111CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cody W, Meinardus G, Varga R (1969) Chebyshev rational approximations to \(e^{-x}\) in \([0,+\infty )\) and applications to heat-conduction problems. J Approx Theory 2:50–65MATHCrossRef Cody W, Meinardus G, Varga R (1969) Chebyshev rational approximations to \(e^{-x}\) in \([0,+\infty )\) and applications to heat-conduction problems. J Approx Theory 2:50–65MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cox D (1955) A use of complex probabilities in the theory of stochastic processes. Math Proc Cambridge Philos Soc 51:313–319MATHCrossRef Cox D (1955) A use of complex probabilities in the theory of stochastic processes. Math Proc Cambridge Philos Soc 51:313–319MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Duan Q, Liu J (2016) Modelling a bathtub-shaped failure rate by a Coxian distribution. IEEE Trans Reliab 65:878–885CrossRef Duan Q, Liu J (2016) Modelling a bathtub-shaped failure rate by a Coxian distribution. IEEE Trans Reliab 65:878–885CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Faddy M (1998) On inferring the number of phases in a Coxian phase-type distribution. Stoch Model 14:407–417MATH Faddy M (1998) On inferring the number of phases in a Coxian phase-type distribution. Stoch Model 14:407–417MATH
Zurück zum Zitat Faddy M (2002) Penalised maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in a Coxian phase-type distribution. In: Latouche G, Taylor P (eds) Matrix-Analytic Methods: Theory and Applications, 11. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 107–114CrossRef Faddy M (2002) Penalised maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in a Coxian phase-type distribution. In: Latouche G, Taylor P (eds) Matrix-Analytic Methods: Theory and Applications, 11. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 107–114CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gantmacher F (1959) Applications of the Theory of Matrices. Interscience Publishers Inc., New YorkMATH Gantmacher F (1959) Applications of the Theory of Matrices. Interscience Publishers Inc., New YorkMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Govorun M, Jones B, Liu X, Stanford D (2018) Physiological age, health costs, and their interrelation. North American Actuarial Journal 22:323–340MATHCrossRef Govorun M, Jones B, Liu X, Stanford D (2018) Physiological age, health costs, and their interrelation. North American Actuarial Journal 22:323–340MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gross D, Miller D (1984) The randomization technique as a modeling tool and solution procedure for transient Markov processes. Oper Res 32:343–361MATHCrossRef Gross D, Miller D (1984) The randomization technique as a modeling tool and solution procedure for transient Markov processes. Oper Res 32:343–361MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Healey M (1973) Study of methods of computing transition matrices. Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical Engineers 120:905–912CrossRef Healey M (1973) Study of methods of computing transition matrices. Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical Engineers 120:905–912CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Higham N (2005) The scaling and squaring method for the matrix exponential revisited. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 26:1179–1193MATHCrossRef Higham N (2005) The scaling and squaring method for the matrix exponential revisited. SIAM J Matrix Anal Appl 26:1179–1193MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hyde J (1980) Testing survival with incomplete observations. In: Miller R, Efron B, Brown B, Moses L (eds) Biostatistics Casebook. John Wiley, New York, pp 31–46 Hyde J (1980) Testing survival with incomplete observations. In: Miller R, Efron B, Brown B, Moses L (eds) Biostatistics Casebook. John Wiley, New York, pp 31–46
Zurück zum Zitat Jensen A (1953) Markoff chains as an aid in the study of Markoff processes. Scand Actuar J 1953(sup1):87–91MATHCrossRef Jensen A (1953) Markoff chains as an aid in the study of Markoff processes. Scand Actuar J 1953(sup1):87–91MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Källström C (1973) Computing exp (A) and \(\int \) exp(As) ds, Division of Automatic Control, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund Källström C (1973) Computing exp (A) and \(\int \) exp(As) ds, Division of Automatic Control, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund
Zurück zum Zitat Kirchner R (1967) An explicit formula for \(e^{At}\). Amer Math Monthly 74:1200–1204MATH Kirchner R (1967) An explicit formula for \(e^{At}\). Amer Math Monthly 74:1200–1204MATH
Zurück zum Zitat Lin X, Liu X (2007) Markov aging process and phase-type law of mortality. North American Actuarial Journal 11:92–109MATHCrossRef Lin X, Liu X (2007) Markov aging process and phase-type law of mortality. North American Actuarial Journal 11:92–109MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Liou M (1996) A novel method of evaluating transient response. Proc IEEE 54:20–23CrossRef Liou M (1996) A novel method of evaluating transient response. Proc IEEE 54:20–23CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Marshall A, Zenga M (2009) Recent developments in fitting coxian phase-type distributions in healthcare, ASMDA. Proceedings of the International Conference Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 13:482 Marshall A, Zenga M (2009) Recent developments in fitting coxian phase-type distributions in healthcare, ASMDA. Proceedings of the International Conference Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 13:482
Zurück zum Zitat Marshall A, Zenga M (2012) Experimenting with the Coxian phase-type distribution to uncover suitable fits. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 14:71–86MATHCrossRef Marshall A, Zenga M (2012) Experimenting with the Coxian phase-type distribution to uncover suitable fits. Methodol Comput Appl Probab 14:71–86MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Mitchell H (2016) Latent phase-type models for Italy’s ageing population. PhD Thesis, Queen’s University, Belfast Mitchell H (2016) Latent phase-type models for Italy’s ageing population. PhD Thesis, Queen’s University, Belfast
Zurück zum Zitat Moler C, Loan C (2003) Nineteen dubious ways to compute the exponential of a matrix twenty-five years later. SIAM Rev 45(2003):3–49MATHCrossRef Moler C, Loan C (2003) Nineteen dubious ways to compute the exponential of a matrix twenty-five years later. SIAM Rev 45(2003):3–49MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Nelder J, Mead R (1965) A simplex method for function minimization. Comput J 7:308–313MATHCrossRef Nelder J, Mead R (1965) A simplex method for function minimization. Comput J 7:308–313MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi K (2009) Markovian arrival process parameter estimation with group data. IEEE/ACM Trans Networking 17(4):1326–1339CrossRef Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi K (2009) Markovian arrival process parameter estimation with group data. IEEE/ACM Trans Networking 17(4):1326–1339CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi K (2011) A refined EM algorithm for PH distributions. Perform Eval 68(10):938–954CrossRef Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi K (2011) A refined EM algorithm for PH distributions. Perform Eval 68(10):938–954CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi S (2013) Improvement of Expectation-Maximization algorithm for phase-type distributions with grouped and truncated data. Appl Stoch Model Bus Ind 29(2):141–156MATHCrossRef Okamura H, Dohi T, Trivedi S (2013) Improvement of Expectation-Maximization algorithm for phase-type distributions with grouped and truncated data. Appl Stoch Model Bus Ind 29(2):141–156MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Okamura H, Dohi T (2009) Faster maximum likelihood estimation algorithms for Markovian arrival processes. 2009 Sixth International Conference on the Quantitative Evaluation of Systems, IEEE, 73-82 Okamura H, Dohi T (2009) Faster maximum likelihood estimation algorithms for Markovian arrival processes. 2009 Sixth International Conference on the Quantitative Evaluation of Systems, IEEE, 73-82
Zurück zum Zitat Putzer E (1966) Avoiding the Jordan canonical form in the discussion of linear systems with constant coefficients. Amer Math Monthly 73:2–7MATHCrossRef Putzer E (1966) Avoiding the Jordan canonical form in the discussion of linear systems with constant coefficients. Amer Math Monthly 73:2–7MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rice J (2006) Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont Rice J (2006) Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. Thomson Brooks/Cole, Belmont
Zurück zum Zitat Rizk J, Walsh C, Burke K (2021) An alternative formulation of Coxian phase-type distributions with covariates: Application to emergency department length of stay. Stat Med 40(6):1574–1592CrossRef Rizk J, Walsh C, Burke K (2021) An alternative formulation of Coxian phase-type distributions with covariates: Application to emergency department length of stay. Stat Med 40(6):1574–1592CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ross S (2014) Introduction to Probability Models. Academic Press, OxfordMATH Ross S (2014) Introduction to Probability Models. Academic Press, OxfordMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Saff E (1971) The convergence of rational functions of best approximation to the exponential function. Trans Am Math Soc 153:483–493MATHCrossRef Saff E (1971) The convergence of rational functions of best approximation to the exponential function. Trans Am Math Soc 153:483–493MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sidje R (1998) Expokit: A software package for computing matrix exponentials. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software 24:130–156MATHCrossRef Sidje R (1998) Expokit: A software package for computing matrix exponentials. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software 24:130–156MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Siu C, Yam P, Yang H (2015) Valuing equity-linked death benefits in a regime-switching framework. ASTIN Bulletin 45(2):355–395MATHCrossRef Siu C, Yam P, Yang H (2015) Valuing equity-linked death benefits in a regime-switching framework. ASTIN Bulletin 45(2):355–395MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Stewart W (1994) Introduction to the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains. Princeton University Press, PrincetonMATH Stewart W (1994) Introduction to the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains. Princeton University Press, PrincetonMATH
Zurück zum Zitat Su S, Sherris M (2012) Heterogeneity of Australian population mortality and implications for a viable life annuity market. Insurance Math Econom 51(2):22–332CrossRef Su S, Sherris M (2012) Heterogeneity of Australian population mortality and implications for a viable life annuity market. Insurance Math Econom 51(2):22–332CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Waltz RA, Morales JL, Nocedal J, Orban D (2006) An interior algorithm for nonlinear optimization that combines line search and trust region steps. Math Program 107(3):391–408MATHCrossRef Waltz RA, Morales JL, Nocedal J, Orban D (2006) An interior algorithm for nonlinear optimization that combines line search and trust region steps. Math Program 107(3):391–408MATHCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ward R (1997) Numerical computation of the matrix exponential with accuracy estimate. SIAM J Numer Anal 14:600–610MATHCrossRef Ward R (1997) Numerical computation of the matrix exponential with accuracy estimate. SIAM J Numer Anal 14:600–610MATHCrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
A uniformisation-driven algorithm for inference-related estimation of a phase-type ageing model
verfasst von
Boquan Cheng
Rogemar Mamon
Publikationsdatum
02.10.2022
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Lifetime Data Analysis / Ausgabe 1/2023
Print ISSN: 1380-7870
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9249
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-022-09577-1

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2023

Lifetime Data Analysis 1/2023 Zur Ausgabe