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Erschienen in: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 4/2019

16.11.2019

Buffett’s alpha: further explanations from a behavioral value investing perspective

verfasst von: Eben Otuteye, Mohammad Siddiquee

Erschienen in: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management | Ausgabe 4/2019

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Abstract

Warren Buffett has had extraordinary success as an investor, but there is no agreement as to why. Some academic researchers attribute his performance to mere luck. Frazzini et al. (Financ Anal J 74(4):35–55, 2018), concluded that his alpha is due to leveraging safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks. However, there has been no analysis to date of Buffett’s performance from a behavioral perspective. We argue that Buffett’s success is partly due to qualitative and psychological factors, including tenacity, patience, avoidance of overconfidence, organizational culture, and the reputation effect. Using information from shareholder letters, writings, interviews, and speeches by Buffett and his colleague Charlie Munger, we demonstrate how such psychological factors, together with the quantitative findings of Frazzini et al., render a more complete and satisfying explanation of Buffett’s alpha.

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Fußnoten
1
Graham himself did not specifically use the term “value investing.” He referred to it as “the value approach to stock investment” (Graham 2006, p. 204).
 
2
Benjamin Graham was one of Warren Buffett’s professors when Warren Buffett was a graduate student at the Columbia University School of Business in 1951.
 
3
Margin of safety = (Intrinsic value − Price)/Intrinsic value. In The Intelligent Investor, Graham said the secret of sound investment can be distilled into three words: “MARGIN OF SAFETY” (chap. 20, caps in the original).
 
4
Asness et al. (2015) discussed this problem and settled on using the terminology “pure value” for the academic version and “concentrated, value-based, idiosyncratic stock picking” for what practicing value investors do. One problem with this distinction is that there is nothing in value investing that advocates or restricts it to only concentrated portfolios, although there are conditions under which a concentrated portfolio will be the value investor’s rational choice.
 
5
In spite of this flawed value portfolio selection process with a proclivity toward failing companies, the academic value portfolios still beat the market benchmark more times than other investment styles; see, for example, Tweedy and Browne (2009).
 
6
We are not aware of any mainstream finance textbook that has a section or chapter devoted to value investing as set out by Graham or practiced by Buffett. It is taught and researched by only a small minority of academics. From a research perspective, as noted by FKP, much had been said about Buffett, but little rigorous empirical work had been attempted before their study.
 
7
In his response to Jensen’s comment, Buffett (1984) demonstrated, by means of an ingenious allegory that invokes scientific themes from population and epidemiological studies, that the stellar performance of Graham’s students could not have been merely due to chance. Munger made similar remarks in his Herb Kay Memorial Lecture at the University of California at Santa Barbara (Munger 2003). See the detailed story and analysis in Buffett (1984), especially p. 6.
 
8
There is no question that the logic is impeccable from a statistical point of view but it is the context that determines whether it is an appropriate or correct application.
 
9
A search through SSRN reveals many papers on Buffett (not all on performance evaluation specifically) that have not gone beyond working paper stage.
 
10
The three factors are the market portfolio, the size factor, and the value factor.
 
11
Tenacity is an attribute he and Munger have in common. Indeed, the unique synergy of the Buffett–Munger duo should not be overlooked, and it is something Buffett points out often. For example, in his 50th anniversary letter to shareholders, Buffett modestly highlighted Munger’s indispensable role in the success of Berkshire: “Berkshire has been built to Charlie’s blueprint. My role has been that of general contractor, with the CEOs of Berkshire’s subsidiaries doing the real work as sub-contractors” (Buffett 2014, p. 27).
 
12
See Belsky and Gilovich (2010) and Pompian (2012) for examples.
 
13
Many years after Graham’s hypothesis (in 1949), Robert Shiller (1981) demonstrated empirically that volatility of market prices does not correspond to changes in business or market fundamentals.
 
14
In the preface to the fourth edition of The Intelligent Investor, Buffett stated that “If you follow the behavioral and business principles that Graham advocates—and if you pay special attention to the invaluable advice in Chapters 8 and 20—you will not get a poor result from your investment” (Graham 2006, p. ix). In Chapter 20, Graham himself labeled “margin of safety” as the central concept in investment: the secret of sound investment, the central concept of all his discussion of investment policy in the book.
 
17
Links to Berkshire subsidiary companies can be found at http://​www.​berkshirehathawa​y.​com/​subs/​sublinks.​html.
 
18
Examples include the acquisition of Helzberg Diamonds, Inc. from the Helzberg family in 1995 (Helzberg 2003), See’s Candies in 1972 from Sees family, Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 from Mrs. Rose Blumkin, and ISCAR in 2005 from Stef Wertheimer.
 
19
Normally, self-selection in both economics (e.g., Salop and Salop 1976) and cognitive psychology (e.g., Hausknecht et al. 2007) is discussed from the perspective of its negative impact on markets and sample selection. However, in this case self-selection actually leads to a mutually beneficial outcome to both the seller and the buyer of the business.
 
20
See, for example, Buffett’s Q&A with students at Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia (https://​www.​youtube.​com/​watch?​v=​2a9Lx9J8uSs) or Munger’s interview with BBC (https://​www.​youtube.​com/​watch?​v=​cVTX1BkJGn0).
 
21
HBO documentary, Becoming Warren Buffett, directed by Peter Kunhardt, http://​www.​hbocanada.​com/​details/​gp122250-becoming-warren-buffett.
 
22
Warren Buffett: Buying Berkshire Hathaway Was $200 Billion Blunder, https://​www.​cnbc.​com/​id/​39710609.
 
23
Following the mathematician Carl Jacobi's maxim “Invert, always invert.”
 
24
Confirmation bias is rampant in every sphere of decision making, affecting about 80% of people (Wason 1960; Nickerson 1998).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Buffett’s alpha: further explanations from a behavioral value investing perspective
verfasst von
Eben Otuteye
Mohammad Siddiquee
Publikationsdatum
16.11.2019
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Financial Markets and Portfolio Management / Ausgabe 4/2019
Print ISSN: 1934-4554
Elektronische ISSN: 2373-8529
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-019-00339-y

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