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2020 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

12. Business Cycles Policy

verfasst von : Christian A. Conrad

Erschienen in: Political Economy

Verlag: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden

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Abstract

Economic fluctuations, above all as fluctuations in demand, are a major problem for people and businesses and can only be influenced to a very limited extent by economic policy. In the following lecture section, we will analyze the economic phenomenon and the effects on the economy and show the reasons for cyclical fluctuations.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Monetary Policy and the European Central Bank
Nächstes Kapitel International Financial Markets
Fußnoten
1
Developments in which the net investments are zero are also conceivable. The production potential would remain unchanged. Fluctuations in the utilization of production potential would be a pure economic phenomenon.
 
2
See Albers, Willi u.a. (Hrsg.) (1976), p. 479.
 
3
See auch Zarnowitz, Victor (1997), p. 1f. and 25f.
 
4
See Ramey, Garey Ramey, Valerie A. (1991).
 
5
See Schebeck, Fritz/Tichy, Günther (1984).
 
6
See Schebeck, Fritz/Tichy, Günther (1984).
 
7
See Samuelson, P.A. (1939).
 
8
For the Hicks's super-multiplier See Hicks, J.R. (1950); Tichy, G. (1995), p. 11; Assenmacher, Walter (1998); Teichmann, U. (1997), p. 11.; Wagner, A. (1990), p. 222 and Ott, A. (1963), p. 196.
 
9
i.e. all investments that are not caused by a change in demand, ie long-term investments such as public infrastructure investments and innovations.
 
10
See Hicks, J.R. (1950); Tichy, G. (1995), p. 11; Assenmacher, W. (1991); Wagner, A. (1990), pp. 222 and Ott, A. (1963), p. 196.
 
11
Due to the choice of: 1 < ß < (1 + √s)2.
these are explosive oscillation.
 
12
“Public investment, investment which occurs in direct responce to inventions, and much of the ‘long-range’ investments (as Mr. Harrod calls it) which is only expected to pay for itself over a long period, all of these can be regarded as Autonomous Investment for our purpose.” Hicks J. R. (1950), p. 59.
 
13
Hicks J. R. (1950), p. 129.
 
14
See Chenery, H. (1952) and Assenmacher, Walter (1998), pp. 186.
 
15
See Goodwin, R. M. (1951) and Assenmacher, Walter (1998), pp. 120.
 
16
See Bergstrom, A. (1962); Teichmann, Ulrich (1997), p. 17 and Assenmacher, Walter (1998), p. 18.
 
17
See Hayek, Friedrich August von (1969).
 
18
See Schumpeter, Joseph Alois (1911).
 
19
See Schumpeter, Peter (1939).
 
20
See Marx, Karl (1864) and Stavenhagen, Gerhard (1969), pp. 157.
 
21
Zum GOODWIN-Modell See Goodwin, R. M. (1967), pp. 54; Heubes, J. (1986), pp. 86; Kurz, Rudi (1986); Teichmann, Ulrich (1997), pp. 18 and Wagner, A. (1992), pp. 225.
 
22
The hunter population (wage share) develops with a time lag of one phase, depending on the prey population (employment rate). The term hunter and prey populations comes from the biology that found a similar correlation for predators (e.g., lynxes) and prey (e.g., rabbits) (so-called LOTKA-VOLTERRA equations).
 
23
See Wolfstetter, E. (1982) and Assenmacher, Walter (1998), pp. 229.
 
24
See Frey, B.S./and Lau, L.J. (1968).
 
25
NORDHAUS gives different reasons for the trade-off between inflation and unemployment: 1. That a low unemployment rate means that the demand for labor is relatively high, hence the price of labor, the wage that acts as a cost on the general price level. 2. There would be asymmetrical delays (lags) in the effect of changes in the unemployment rate on the general price level because, on the one hand, wage demands are lower in the case of high unemployment and, on the other hand, because an increased inflation rate increases inflation expectations and so that the wage demands of the employees to keep the real wage constant. NORDHAUS concludes that the long-term Phillips curve is steeper than the short-term one. See Nordhaus, William D. (1974), p. 169f.
 
26
Australia, Canada, Japan, Great Britain Australia, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom.
 
27
See Grossekettler, Heinz (1989), pp. 203; Wicksell, Knut (1898), pp. 109 and Wicksell, Knut (1922), p. 231.
 
28
See Hayek, F. v. (1967 [1935]).
 
29
See Conrad, Christian, A./Stahl, Markus (2003), pp. 685–693.
 
30
See Conrad, Christian A. (2019), pp. 18–27.
 
31
See Markus Stahl/Christian Conrad (2000), pp. 415–422.
 
32
See Clarke, Stephen (1967), Library of Congress Catalog No. 67-17650.
 
33
The monetary circumstances of the crash of 1929 examined in particular Temin, Peter (1976), und Friedman, Milton/Schwartz, Jacobson (1965).
 
34
Conrad, Christian, A./Schoett, Harry (2000), pp. 151–159.
 
35
See Christian A. Conrad/Markus Stahl (2000), pp. 25.
 
36
See Daxhammer, Rolf/Schmied-Wörle, Tatjana (2000), pp. 45-58.
 
37
Or the South Sea Bubble See Chancellor, Edward (1999), pp. 58-95.
 
38
For the financial scandal of Law see Kiehling, Hartmut (2000), pp. 19-29
 
39
Gold investments could be successful in such a scenario.
See Mezger, Markus/Stahl, Markus (2001a), pp. 372–378 and Conrad, Christian, A./Stahl, Markus (2002).
 
40
See Mezger, Markus/Stahl, Markus (2001b), pp. 15–22.
 
41
See Ito, Takatoshi/Iwaisako, Tokuo (1995).
 
42
See Irwin, Scott H./Sanders, Dwight R. (2012), pp. 258.
 
43
See Pagan, A./Schwert, C. (1990), p. 165–170.; Phillips, P./Loretan, M. (1990); Frenk, David U. A., (2011), (p. 43-49), p. 45 and http://​www.​matthias-schlecker.​de/​kointegrationsan​alyse-stationaritaet-und-augmented-dickey-fuller-test (4.04.2014).
 
44
See Frenk, David u.a. (2011), a.a.O. pp. 47.
 
45
See International Monetary Fund (2000) and Baks, Klaas/Kramer, Charles (1999).
 
46
See Braley, R. (1983), An Introduction to Risk and Return, 2nd ed., Oxford 1983
Actually, all future periods must be included. However, due to the limited real-time forecast horizon, this is not the case here.
 
47
See Hayek, Friedrich August von (1929), pp. 81.
 
48
See Wicksell, Knut (1928), p. 231ff; Wicksell, Knut (1898), p. 101ff, and Grossekettler, Heinz (1989), p. 203f.
 
49
See Conrad, Christian A. (2000), p. 135–146.
 
50
See Conrad, Christian A./Stahl, Markus (2000), pp. 24–32.
 
51
See Stahl, Markus (2000a, b).
 
52
See Conrad, Christian, A./Stahl, Markus (2002).
 
53
See Shleifer, Andrei (2000b), p. 21 and Stahl, Markus/Conrad, Christian A. (2000), a.a.O., pp. 415–422.
 
54
See Markus Stahl/Christian A. Conrad (2000), pp. 383–385 and Conrad, Christian, A./Stahl, Markus (2002).
 
55
Stahl, Markus/Conrad, Christian, A. (2000), pp. 415–422.
 
56
See Santoni, Gary J./Dwyer, Gerald P. Jr.(1990), p. 190 and Diba, Behzad T./Grossman, Herschel I. (1988), p. 520.
 
57
See Bruns, Christoph (1994), pp. 23.
 
58
See Aschinger, Gerhard (1991), p. 271.
 
59
See Bruns, Christoph (1994), p. 25 and Aschinger, Gerhard (1991), pp. 270.
 
60
See Flood, Robert P./Garber, Peter M. (1980), p. 746.
 
61
See Ito, Takatoshi/Iwaisako, Tokuo (1995), p. 1.
 
62
See Sloan, A./Stern, R.L. (1988), p. 55-59; Shleifer, Andrei (2000), pp. 1.
and Mankhoff, Likas/Röckemann, Christian (1994), p. 278.
 
63
See Flood, Robert P./Garber, Peter M. (1980), p. 746 ff and Blanchard O.J./Watson, M.W. (1982), and Jüttner, Johannes (1989), p. 474.
 
64
See Rasch, Steffen (1993), p. 300.
 
65
The stock price display was several hours late in 1987, which is why the NYSE expanded the computer-based automatic trading systems to a sales volume of 1 billion shares per session. See Rasch, Steffen (1993), pp. 282.
 
66
Vgl.The Presidental Task Force (1988), p. V.
 
67
Leland, Hayne/Rubinstein, Mark (1988), p. 46.
 
68
Leland, Hayne/Rubinstein, Mark (1988), p. 50.
 
69
Leland, Hayne/Rubinstein, Mark (1988), p. 50.
 
70
See Shiller, Robert J. (2000), pp. 180.
 
71
See Shleifer, Andrei (2000), S., pp. 10.
 
72
See Blume, L./Easley, D. (1992), pp. 9–40.
 
73
See Shiller, R.J. (1984), pp. 457–498.
 
74
See Froot, Kenneth A./Scharfstein, David S./Stein, Jeremy C. (1992), pp. 1461.
 
75
See Shiller, Robert J. (2000), p. 152.
 
76
Zitiert nach Quotes after Menkhoff, Lukas/Röckmann, Christian (1994), pp. 284.
 
77
See De Bondt, Werner F. M./Forbes, William P. (1999).
 
78
See Shleifer, Andrei/Vishny, Robert W. (1990), pp. 148–153.
 
79
See Treynor, Jack (1998), pp. 69–74.
 
80
A person who tends to be a seller (bear) does not have to be passive on the market by holding liquidity, but can also buy short positions (long-short futures or long-put options).
 
81
See Metcalfe, Janet (1998) and Beck, H. (2014), p. 62.
 
82
See Behavioral Finance Group (2000), p. 29. See auch Menkhoff, Lukas/Röckmann, Christian (1994), a.a.o., pp. 287 and Shleifer, Andrei (2000a).
 
83
See De Bondt, Werner F. M.; Thaler, Richard (1985), Beck, H. (2014), p. 363.
 
84
See Behavioral Finance Group (2000), p. 29. The study was conducted by the Chair of Banking at the University of Mannheim, Prof. Martin Weber and Andreas Laschke. See also Menkhoff, Lukas/Röckmann, Christian (1994), pp. 287 and Shleifer, Andrei (2000).
 
85
See Behavioral Finance Group (2000) and Conrad, Christian A. (2016).
 
86
See Wason, Peter C. (1960); Nickerson, Raymond p. (1998).
 
87
See Samuelson, William; Zeckhauser, Richard (1988), pp. 22 and Beck, H. (2014).
 
88
See Conrad, Christian A. (2015).
 
89
See Gerfin, H./Möller, J. (1980b), p. 201.
 
90
See Malinvaud, E. (1977), Barro, R.J./Grossmann, H.I. (1976); Gerfin, H./Möller, J. (1980a); Gerfin, H./Möller, J. (1980b); Barro, Robert J. (1971); Clower, R.W. (1965); Heubes, Jürgen (1991), pp. 65 and Rothschild, Kurt, W. (1981).
 
91
Nevertheless, these models explain variations in the utilization of production potential, which is why they are listed along with the other economic theories.See Mankiw Greory M. (1998) and Assenmacher, Walter (1998).
 
92
See Mankiw, G.N. (1985) and Ball, L./Mankiw, N.G. (1994).
 
93
See Kugler, Peter (1998), p. 32 and Homburg, Stefan (1996), pp. 60.
 
94
See Stiglitz, S.E./Weiss A. (1992) and DeLong, B.D./Summers, L. (1988) and Homburg, Stefan (1996), p. 64.
 
95
See Kugler, Peter (1998), p. 32.
 
96
However, the use of nonlinear behavioral functions based on the mathematical chaos theory in neoclassical growth models leads only in exceptional cases to stable solutions, which is why the empirical explanatory content is assessed as very low.
See Teichmann, Ulrich (1997), p. 24.
 
97
Conrad, Christian (1999), pp. 188–220 and Stavenhagen, Gerhard (1969).
 
98
See Friedman, M. (1970); Heubes, Jürgen (1991), pp. 84 and Teichmann, Ulrich (1997), p. 20.
 
99
See Laidler, D. (1976a, b); Heubes, Jürgen (1991), pp. 87 and Teichmann, Ulrich (1997), p. 21.
 
100
Zur Neuen Klassischen Makroökonomik To the New Classical Macroeconomics See Assenmacher, Walter (1998), S.302.; Ramser, H. J. (1988), pp. 96; Lucas, R.E. (1975); McCallum (1980); Barro, R.J. (1981); Tichy G. (1995), G., p. 185ff; Minford, Patrick/Peel, David (1983) and Fischer, S. (1980).
 
101
See Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1976) and McCallum, B.T. (1980).
 
102
See Heubes, Jürgen (1991), pp. 83 and Assenmacher, Walter (1998), pp. 301.
 
103
See Assenmacher Walter (1998), p. 309.
 
104
In addition, the assessment of the New Classic Macroeconomics on credit-financed fiscal policy should be mentioned. According to the Ricardian equivalence theorem, borrowers are already anticipating the future tax increases necessary for debt service, which is why they do not feel wealthier and therefore no longer consume by issuing government securities. There remains only the demand effect of government spending, which is offset by the future reduction in consumption due to the tax increase. Since the economic subjects also anticipate this and preventively increase their savings rate, this effect is also eliminated. See Felderer, Bernhard/Homburg, Stefan (1989), pp. 275. This view is critically questioned. Above all, it is argued that economic subjects will distinguish between the taxes levied during their lifetime and the taxes which the next generation must pay. To discuss the financing effects of government demand increase See Musgrave R.A./Musgrave P.B./Kullmer L. (1987), pp. 120.
 
105
For the Real Business Cycles theory see Kydland, F. E./Prescott, E. C. (1982); Long, John B./Plosser, Charles I. (1983); Azariadis, C./Guesnerie, R. (1986); Ramser, H. J. (1988); Tichy, G. (1995), pp. 191; Stadler, George W. (1994) and Komphardt, Jürgen (1989), p. 213.
 
106
See Kydland, Finn E./Prescott, Edward C. (1982) and Assenmacher Walter (1998), pp. 310.
 
107
See Kugler, Peter (1998) p. 33.
 
108
See Ramser, H. J. (1988), pp. 98.
 
109
For the necessity of the constancy of economic policy See Eucken, Walter (1952), pp. 285.
 
110
See Ramey, G./Ramey, V. A. (1995). Business-cycle theory and growth theory have traditionally been treated as “unrelated areas of macroeconomics”, which is why it is often assumed that“growth and business-cycle volatility are unrelated.” Ramey, G./Ramey, V. A. (1995), p. 1138. See auch Franz, Wolfgang u.a. (1999).
 
111
See Aghion, P./Saint-Paul, G. (1993).
 
112
See Shleifer, A. (1986) and Ramser, Hans Jürgen (1997), p. 200.
 
113
See Stiglitz, J.E. (1994) and Ramser, Hans Jürgen (1997), p. 221f.
 
114
This is the basic tenor in almost all summaries of the business cycle theory of the last 50 years.
See insbesondere Kugler, Peter (1998), p. 34f.
 
115
See Jaeger, Klaus (1999), p. 31 and Hesse, Helmut (1999), p. 39.
 
116
See Kydland, Finn, E./Prescott, Edward C. (1977).
 
117
See Kydland, Finn, E./Prescott, Edward C. (1977) and Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1976).
 
118
See also Conrad, Christian, A. (1999).
 
119
See Berg, Hartmut; Cassel Dieter 1992, pp. 163–238.
 
120
See also on the credit behavior of banks Rottmann, Horst/Wollmershäuser, Timo (2010).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Business Cycles Policy
verfasst von
Christian A. Conrad
Copyright-Jahr
2020
Buch
Political Economy

Print ISBN: 978-3-658-30883-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-658-30884-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2020

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-30884-1_12

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