nach oben

Quality & Quantity

Erschienen in:

18.06.2020

Developing grey prediction with Fourier series using genetic algorithms for tourism demand forecasting

verfasst von: Yi-Chung Hu

Erschienen in: Quality & Quantity | Ausgabe 1/2021

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Predicting the number of foreign tourists is significant for governments in devising development policies for tourism demand. Time series related to tourism often feature significant temporal fluctuation. Therefore, grey prediction in conjunction with the Fourier series for oscillating sequences is appropriate to foreign tourists forecasting. Grey prediction traditionally uses the ordinary least squares (OLS) to derive relevant parameters. However, as the conformance to statistical assumption is not guaranteed, estimators derived by using OLS may not be reliable. This study proposes an OLS-free grey model with the Fourier series by using soft computing techniques to determine the optimal parameters to maximize prediction accuracy. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed grey prediction model performs well compared with other prediction models considered.

Vorheriger Artikel Causal inference in collaboration networks using propensity score methods

Nächster Artikel Is it an institution, digital or social inclusion that matters for inclusive growth? A panel data analysis

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Askari, M., Fetanat, A.: Long-term forecasting in power system: grey system prediction-based models. J. Appl. Sci. 11(16), 3034–3038 (2011)

Chang, C.J., Yu, L., Jin, P.: A mega-trend-diffusion grey forecasting model for short-term manufacturing demand. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 67(12), 1439–1445 (2016)

Chen, C.I.: Application of the novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting unemployment rate. Chaos Solitons Fractals 37(1), 278–287 (2008)

Chen, C.I., Chen, H.L., Chen, S.P.: Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model NGBM(1,1). Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 13(6), 1194–1204 (2008)

Demšar, J.: Statistical comparisons of classifiers over multiple data sets. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 7, 1–30 (2006)

Ene, S., Öztürk, N.: Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life vehicles. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 115, 155–166 (2017)

Feng, S.J., Ma, Y.D., Song, Z.L., Ying, J.: Forecasting the energy consumption of China by the grey prediction model. Energy Sources Part B 7, 376–389 (2012)

Friedman, M.: A comparison of alternative tests of significance for the problem of m rankings. Ann. Math. Stat. 11, 86–92 (1940)

Goldberg, D.E.: Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and Machine Learning. Addison-Wesley, Reading (1989)

Habibi, F., Rahim, K.A., Ramchandran, S., Chin, L.: Dynamic model for international tourism demand for Malaysia: panel data evidence. Int. Res. J. Finance Econ. 33, 207–217 (2009)

Hsu, L.C.: A genetic algorithm based nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for output forecasting in integrated circuit industry. Expert Syst. Appl. 37(6), 4318–4323 (2010)

Hsu, Y.T., Liu, M.C., Yeh, J., Hung, H.F.: Forecasting the turning time of stock market based on Markov–Fourier grey model. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(4), 8597–8603 (2009)

Hu, Y.C.: Functional-link nets with genetic-algorithm-based learning for robust nonlinear interval regression analysis. Neurocomputing 72(7-9), 1808–1816 (2009)

Hu, Y.C.: Nonadditive similarity-based single-layer perceptron for multi-criteria collaborative filtering. Neurocomputing 129, 306–314 (2014)

Hu, Y.C.: Electricity consumption forecasting using a neural-network-based grey prediction approach. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 68(10), 1259–1264 (2017a)

Hu, Y.C.: Grey prediction with residual modification using functional-link net and its application to energy demand forecasting. Kybernetes 46(2), 349–363 (2017b)

Hu, Y.C., Jiang, P.: Forecasting energy demand using neural-network-based grey residual modification models. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 68(5), 556–565 (2017)

Huang, Y.L., Lee, Y.H.: Accurately forecasting model for the stochastic volatility data in tourism demand. Mod. Econ. 2(5), 823–829 (2011)

Iman, R.L., Davenport, J.M.: Approximations of the critical region of the Friedman statistic. Commun. Stat. 9(6), 571–595 (1980)

Ishibuchi, H., Nakashima, T., Nii, M.: Classification and modeling with linguistic information granules: advanced approaches to linguistic data mining. Springer, Heidelberg (2004)

Jang, J.S.R., Sun, C.T., Mizutani, E.: Neuro-fuzzy and soft computing: a computational approach to learning and machine intelligence. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (1997)

Lee, S.C., Shih, L.H.: Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: a case study of renewable energy in Taiwan. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 78, 1242–1253 (2011)

Lee, Y.S., Tong, L.I.: Forecasting energy consumption using a grey model improved by incorporating genetic programming. Energy Convers. Manag. 52, 147–152 (2011)

Li, D.C., Chang, C.J., Chen, C.C., Chen, W.C.: Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—an Asian case. Omega 40, 767–773 (2012)

Lin, C.J., Chen, H.F., Lee, T.S.: Forecasting tourism demand using time series, artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines: evidence from Taiwan. Int. J. Bus. Adm. 2(2), 14–24 (2011)

Liu, S., Lin, Y.: Grey information: theory and practical applications. Springer, Berlin (2010)

Liu, S., Yang, Y., Forrest, J.: Grey data analysis: methods, models and applications. Springer, Berlin (2017)

Lu, J., Xie, W., Zhou, H., Zhang, A.: An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model and its applications. Neurocomputing 177, 206–214 (2016)

Makridakis, S.: Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns. Int. J. Forecast. 9(4), 527–529 (1993)

Mao, M.Z., Chirwa, E.C.: Application of grey model GM(1,1) to vehicle fatality risk estimation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73, 588–605 (2006)

Murata, T., Ishibuchi, H., Tanaka, H.: Multi-objective genetic algorithm and its applications to flowshop scheduling. Comput. Ind. Eng. 30(4), 957–968 (1996)

Nguyen, T.L., Huang, J.C., Chiu, C.C., Shu, M.H., Tsai, W.R.: Forecasting model for the international tourism demand in Taiwan. In: Proceedings of 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management, Phuket, Thailand, pp. 61–70 (S5) (2013)

Osyczka, A.: Evolutionary algorithms for single and multicriteria design optimization. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg (2003)

Ouerfelli, C.: Co-integration analysis of quarterly European tourism demand in Tunisia. Tour. Manag. 29, 127–137 (2008)

Pao, Y.H.: Adaptive pattern recognition and neural networks. Addison-Wesley, Reading (1989)

Pao, Y.H.: Functional-link net computing: theory, system architecture, and functionalities. Computer 25(5), 76–79 (1992)

Pao, H.T., Fu, H.C., Tseng, C.L.: Forecasting of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model. Energy 40(1), 400–409 (2012)

Park, G.H., Pao, Y.H.: Unconstrained word-based approach for off-line script recognition using density-based random-vector functional-link net. Neurocomputing 31(1–4), 45–65 (2000)

Song, H., Li, G.: Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: a review of recent research. Tour. Manag. 29(2), 203–220 (2008)

Suganthi, L., Samuel, A.A.: Energy models for demand forecasting—a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 16, 1223–1240 (2012)

Sun, X., Sun, W., Wang, J., Gao, Y.: Using a Grey–Markov model optimized by Cuckoo search algorithm to forecast the annual foreign tourist arrivals to China. Tour. Manag. 52, 369–379 (2016)

Tsaur, R.C., Liao, Y.C.: Forecasting LCD TV demand using the fuzzy grey model GM(1,1). Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl.-Based Syst. 15, 753–767 (2007)

Wang, Z.X.: Grey forecasting method for small sample oscillating sequences based on Fourier series. Control Decis. 29(2), 270–274 (2014)

Wang, Z.Z., Dang, Y.G., Liu, S.F., Zhao, J.J.: Solution of GM (1, 1) power model and its properties. Syst. Eng. Electron. 31(10), 2380–2383 (2009)

Wang, Z.X., Hao, P.: An improved grey multivariable model for predicting industrial energy consumption in China. Appl. Math. Model. 40(11-12), 5745–5758 (2016)

Wang, Z.X., Hipel, K.W., Wang, Q., He, S.W.: An optimized NGBM(1,1) model for forecasting the qualified discharge rate of industrial wastewater in China. Appl. Math. Model. 35(12), 5524–5532 (2011)

Wang, C.N., Phan, V.T.: An improved nonlinear grey Bernoulli model combined with Fourier series. Math. Probl. Eng. Vol. 2015, Article ID 740272 (2015)

Wei, J., Zhou, L., Wang, F., Wu, D.: Work safety evaluation in Mainland China using grey theory. Appl. Math. Model. 39(2), 924–933 (2015)

Wen, K.L.: Grey systems modeling and prediction. Yang’s Scientific Research Institute, Tucson (2004)

Wu, D.C., Song, H., Shen, S.: New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Int. J. Contemp. Hosp. Manag. 29(1), 507–529 (2017)

Yang, Y.N.: Financial econometric with Gretl. Compass Publishing, Taipei (2010)

Zhou, J., Fang, R., Li, Y., Zhang, Y., Peng, B.: Parameter optimization of nonlinear grey Bernoulli model using particle swarm optimization. Appl. Math. Comput. 207(2), 292–299 (2009)

Titel: Developing grey prediction with Fourier series using genetic algorithms for tourism demand forecasting
verfasst von: Yi-Chung Hu
Publikationsdatum: 18.06.2020
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in: Quality & Quantity / Ausgabe 1/2021
Print ISSN: 0033-5177
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7845
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01006-5

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2021

Is risk attitude toward health outcomes context driven?

A new approach to assess the normalization of differential rates of protest participation

Impact of prosocial motivation on organizational citizenship behavior: the mediating role of ethical leadership and leader–member exchange

Causal inference in collaboration networks using propensity score methods

Film and ideology: narrative analysis of the student movement in Iranian Cinema (2001–2004)

Temporary teams: current research focus and future directions