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01.01.2014

Do the selected Trans European transport investments pass the cost benefit test?

verfasst von: Stef Proost, Fay Dunkerley, Saskia Van der Loo, Nicole Adler, Johannes Bröcker, Artem Korzhenevych

Erschienen in: Transportation | Ausgabe 1/2014

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Abstract

This paper assesses the economic justification for the selection of priority projects defined under the auspices of the Trans-European transport network. Three different transport models are used to analyse the costs and benefits associated with the current list of 30 priority projects. Most of these projects fail the cost-benefit test and few of the economically justifiable projects would need European subsidies to ensure their viability. Two remedies are proposed to minimise the inefficiencies surrounding project selection. The first remedy would oblige each member state or group of states to perform a cost-benefit analysis, followed by peer review and ensure that the results were published publicly prior to the ranking of federally funded priority projects. The second remedy would require federal funding to be made available only for projects with important spillovers to other countries in order to avoid pork barrel political behaviour.

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While they are limited, in the sense that the three models used are not linked or necessarily mutually consistent, this also means that different aspects of a project can be tested without the use of extensive data and relatively quickly and inexpensively. This can be an important consideration for the controlling or financial institutions responsible for the assessment. Our modelling approach is comprehensive as the assessment of any given project can, in principle, be based on the results from three independent, but complementary models.

The EC financed the research project via the VIth Framework Program of DG-TREN.

The modelling work presented in this paper was carried out as part of the FUNDING project. The aim of this project was not to provide a CBA of the 30 TEN-T projects, but to develop financing rules for large transport infrastructure projects. Hence, only a small number of representative investment projects, limited by data availability, were studied.

The database has been developed and maintained by Carsten Schürmann (RRG 2007). For the calculation of transport cost changes use is also made of the ETIS database (for more details on the procedure see Bröcker et al. 2010).

International trade flows for each country pair are taken from the GTAP Version 6 Data Package. For growth forecasts the official numbers from the EC (Mantzos and Capros 2006) are taken.

Projects that had already been completed were not modeled. Further, Galileo, Motorways of the Sea and all Inland Waterway projects were excluded since they were beyond the scope of CGEurope.

We also worked with combinations of projects but the results were hardly different from the project by project analysis.

In the network-based model, discussed in “Do the high speed rail extension projects make sense?” section, the project lifetime was assumed to be 40 years as this was considered more suitable for rail equipment. Compared to an infinite lifetime, a 40 year basis is equal to increasing the annual cost of the investment by 15 %.

For each of these 22 projects, the benefits (distinguishing freight and passenger traffic) and costs, are available from the authors.

Note that in contrast to the previous section, only the impact of these projects on passenger travel is analysed and not freight.

Detailed results (market shares, prices, frequencies) per origin–destination pair can be obtained from the authors.

The Betuwe Line is the exception here, as more detailed information were available from national data sources. In this case the period 2000–2025 was used.

The operator could increase his profits more by lowering his user charge if demand is strongly price elastic.

Note that this Inland waterways project is priority axis 30 and was not included in the continent-wide analysis.

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Titel: Do the selected Trans European transport investments pass the cost benefit test?
verfasst von: Stef Proost
Fay Dunkerley
Saskia Van der Loo
Nicole Adler
Johannes Bröcker
Artem Korzhenevych
Publikationsdatum: 01.01.2014
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Transportation / Ausgabe 1/2014
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-013-9488-z

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