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2023 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

15. Economic Growth

verfasst von : Ilya Voskoboynikov

Erschienen in: The Contemporary Russian Economy

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Since 1990, economic growth in Russia has been volatile. The transformational recession, with a sharp output fall (–8.4% in 1990–1995), was followed by a post-transition recovery (6% growth in 2001–2005) and a long stagnation (1.7% in 2011–2019). These three periods differ in terms of the main sources of growth.
The transformational recession of 1990–1998 was caused mostly by a fall in productivity, caused by initial disorganisation and mass disinvestments.
Outstanding growth during the post-transition recovery was fuelled by the unique combination of favourable factors such as investment inflows not only from oil and gas export revenues but also from global integration. This included foreign direct investment (FDI) and technology catching up in manufacturing and financial services. Furthermore, new imported machinery and information and communication technologies enhanced growth.
The stagnation of the 2010s was largely explained by the fall in productivity in oil and gas against the backdrop of the lost momentum for technology catching up in manufacturing. This was partially compensated by capital contributions from oil and gas and some small positive productivity contributions from manufacturing.
Intensive structural change with the reallocation of economic activities from goods to market services was primarily growth-enhancing. However, the substantial share of oil and gas in the economy makes growth dependent on the volatile productivity of mining.
In the future, sustainable growth depends on the success of diversification.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Sanctions and Forces Driving to Autarky

Nächstes Kapitel Macroeconomic Vulnerability, Monetary, and Fiscal Policies

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See, for example, the textbook of Weil (2013). In a condensed form, it is also presented by Rodrik (2003).

The Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic or, in short, Soviet Russia.

Mature economies include all current 27 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Iceland, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Several analyses put the Russian crisis in the context of the late 1990s wave of emerging market financial crises. See, e.g., Chiodo and Owyang (2002).

In the case of Russia, mining should be considered in a broader sense in comparison with the approach used in standard industry classifications. An extended oil and gas sector includes organisations which are involved in the process of the extraction, transportation, and wholesale trade of oil and gas. Some of these have establishments in different industries, such as mining, wholesale trade, fuel, and pipeline transport. Because of strong vertical integration and transfer pricing, its share in total value added exceeds mining. This chapter assumes that this extended mining sector includes mining, wholesale trade, and fuel. See also Timmer and Voskoboynikov (2016) for further discussion.

From Table 15.2 Part B, we have 24.1% = 19.1% + 5.0%.

The productivity level of extended mining, which equals 5.7 of the average economy level, can be calculated with corresponding data from Table 15.2 Parts A and B. Denoting total economy nominal value added and hours worked with VA and H correspondingly, we have the labour productivity level of extended mining in 1995 (20.0% × VA)/(3.5% × H) = 5.7(VA/H).

This is the average representation of these sectors. Manufacturing includes both high productive and low productive industries. Agriculture includes stagnant low productive households, which produce for own consumption, and capital-intensive modern agricultural firms (see Chapter 10).

However, some other FSU countries faced a more severe transition. For example, the lowest GDP level in Georgia was 29% of 1990, Azerbaijan—55% (World Bank, 2002, p. 5).

A comprehensive discussion of transformational recession is presented by Ickes (2018).

There are various channels which link multiple primary sources of growth, exogenous and partially endogenous, with GDP growth. Some of the sources impact inputs. For example, infrastructure (geography) through capital and favourable business environment (institutions) through productivity. FDI inflow adds inputs, accelerating capital accumulation, and increases technology level, improving production methods (productivity).

See also Weil (2013, Chapter 7) for a further discussion of growth accounting and its interpretation. An advanced representation of growth accounting at the industry level can be found in Jorgenson et al. (2005).

From the first column of Table 15.3, we have –3.8 = –1.3–2.53.

In the 2010s, the institutional environment changed. In many sectors, the government increased its share in the capital of large companies. This can impact TFP performance. However, these changes were minor in comparison with the 1990s.

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Titel: Economic Growth
verfasst von: Ilya Voskoboynikov
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: The Contemporary Russian Economy
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-17381-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-17382-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-17382-0_15

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