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Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering

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23.04.2022 | Research Article-Computer Engineering and Computer Science

Expectation-Based Probabilistic Naive Approach for Forecasting Involving Optimized Parameter Estimation

verfasst von: Sahil Ahuja, Abhimanyu Kumar

Erschienen in: Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering | Ausgabe 2/2023

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Abstract

This paper presents a forecasting technique based on the principle of naïve approach imposed in a probabilistic sense, thus allowing to express the prediction as the statistical expectation of known observations with a weight involving an unknown parameter. This parameter is learnt from the given data through minimization of error. The theoretical foundation is laid out, and the resulting algorithm is concisely summarized. Finally, the technique is validated on several test functions (and compared with ARIMA and Holt–Winters), special sequences and real-life covid-19 data. Favorable results are obtained in every case, and important insight about the functioning of the technique is gained.

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Titel: Expectation-Based Probabilistic Naive Approach for Forecasting Involving Optimized Parameter Estimation
verfasst von: Sahil Ahuja
Abhimanyu Kumar
Publikationsdatum: 23.04.2022
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering / Ausgabe 2/2023
Print ISSN: 2193-567X
Elektronische ISSN: 2191-4281
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-022-06819-0

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