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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

19. Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US

verfasst von : Jason R. W. Merrick, Laura A. Albert

Erschienen in: Elicitation

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

We demonstrate the use of extended pairwise comparisons for estimating the relative likelihood that a vessel approaching US waters contains a nuclear threat. We demonstrate an expert judgment based method consisting of a designed set of extended pairwise comparisons and parameter estimation for a predictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are based on a proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The model and parameter estimates obtained are used to demonstrate the type of predictions that can be obtained.

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Titel: Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US
verfasst von: Jason R. W. Merrick
Laura A. Albert
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Elicitation
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-65051-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-65052-4

Copyright-Jahr: 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19

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