Forecasting the Indicators of Socio-Economic Development of the Region: Methods and Results

The analysis of the possibilities of using formal methods in the forecasting system of indicators of socio-economic development of regions based on informal logic. Research Methods. Informal logic, correlation and regression analysis, apparatus of neural networks. Results. The analysis of the use of formal forecasting methods (correlation and regression analysis and the apparatus of neural networks) showed that their results correspond to those obtained on the basis of an informal logic algorithm used to justify and calculate a number of socio-economic indicators of the region's development (using the example of the Voronezh region) taking into account their variability values in the conservative, base and target scenarios of strategic planning. The results obtained using various formal methods correspond to the actual and those calculated using the scenario approach and demonstrate very high accuracy. At the same time, it is necessary to note the results of the formal forecast of some indicators that are poorly logical and do not coincide with the actual ones even in the short term, and the “delayed response” of official statistics to the changes that make it difficult to predict and identify deviations necessary to adjust strategies.