7. Fractured Deal and Triggers to Renewed Proliferation Interest

This chapter serves as the main theoretical premise of the study, presenting the key arguments and hypotheses. It outlines the causal connections between the dependent variable, renewed nuclear ambition, and the independent variables, which include the salience of long-running rivalries, the presence of nuclear latency, the drive to regain prestige and identity through acquiring nuclear weapons, and the desire for trade and aid benefits. The chapter also introduces the precipitating factor, which refers to the differences between major powers regarding the nuclear issue of the state in question. It explains how these differences create a conducive platform for a potential proliferator to renew its proliferation ambition. The argument put forward is that when a state faces a fractured nuclear deal, especially if the fracture is caused by its primary enduring rival, it is likely to pursue a fast-track spill-back policy. The facilitating factors, such as long-running rivalries, nuclear latency, the desire for prestige, and the pursuit of trade and aid benefits, contribute to this spill-back policy. The precipitating factor, in the form of disagreements between major powers, plays a role in generating a supportive environment for the state to renew its nuclear plan. The subsequent three chapters of the study analyze the Iranian nuclear proliferation interest in different periods. The first chapter examines Iran's nuclear proliferation interest prior to the nuclear deal, providing context for understanding its motivations. The second chapter focuses on the muted proliferation status during the first two years of the deal, characterized by parties adhering to the agreement's clauses. The third chapter explores Iran's fast-paced spill-back nuclear policy in the post-fractured deal period, utilizing the theoretical framework established earlier. This chapter, thus, presents the theoretical framework of the study, stating the main propositions and explaining the causal connections between the variables. It highlights the role of long-running rivalries, nuclear latency, the pursuit of prestige, trade, and aid, as well as the precipitating factor of major power disagreements, in shaping the renewal of nuclear ambitions. The following chapters analyze Iran's nuclear proliferation interests in different periods, utilizing this theoretical framework.