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29.12.2023 | Aufsätze

Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets?

verfasst von: Smaranda Sgarciu, Felix Müsgens, Sebastian Osorio, Michael Pahle

Erschienen in: List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik | Ausgabe 1-4/2024

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Abstract

It is unclear how CO₂ emissions in the German electricity sector will develop until 2030. On the one hand, the amendment in the Climate Change Act (as of August 2021) aims to tighten the emission reduction targets, fostering the pathway towards a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments used to mitigate carbon emissions, fuel prices and the latest energy scarcity as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine generates pressure for increased emissions.

Using an energy system model parametrised to reflect the 2021 energy market situation i.e., before Russia’s attack, our study investigates the possibility that Germany will meet its 2030 climate targets. We then provide a qualitative analysis on how results can change in light of recent events. We suggest establishing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the evolution of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more credible path towards decarbonization and offer investors certainty.

Vorheriger Artikel Unlocking local value-added opportunities in the energy transition in former coal regions—the case of Lusatia (Lausitz)

Nächster Artikel Kinderbonus 2021 vs. Kinderbonus 2022: Unterschiedliche Kompensationslösungen des Bundes und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Einnahmen der Länder (inklusive Gemeinden)

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For more information on the model see Sgarciu et al. (2023) and https://github.com/BTU-EnerEcon/EM.POWER-INVEST.

Please note that Sgarciu et al. (2023) includes the complementary results of the capacity expansion problem and the analysis of employment effects that coal phase-out has on the Lusatian region.

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Titel: Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets?
verfasst von: Smaranda Sgarciu
Felix Müsgens
Sebastian Osorio
Michael Pahle
Publikationsdatum: 29.12.2023
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in: List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik / Ausgabe 1-4/2024
Print ISSN: 0937-0862
Elektronische ISSN: 2364-3943
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0

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