Skip to main content

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

8. Defining Probabilities of Events

verfasst von : Franco Oboni, Cesar H. Oboni

Erschienen in: Convergent Leadership-Divergent Exposures

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter discusses how probabilities of single events can be evaluated and updated, and delivers some examples of portfolio analyses. A box with links to key terms is included in the references at the end of this chapter to facilitate the read.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Ang AH-S, Tang WH (1975) Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, Volume I, basic principles. Wiley Ang AH-S, Tang WH (1975) Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, Volume I, basic principles. Wiley
Zurück zum Zitat Ang AH-S, Tang WH (1984) Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, volume II, decision, risk and reliability. Wiley Ang AH-S, Tang WH (1984) Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, volume II, decision, risk and reliability. Wiley
Zurück zum Zitat Carlin BP, Louis TA (2008) Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, 3rd edn. CRCCrossRef Carlin BP, Louis TA (2008) Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, 3rd edn. CRCCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Clemen R, Winkler L (1999) Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Anal 19(2):187–203 Clemen R, Winkler L (1999) Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Anal 19(2):187–203
Zurück zum Zitat Frangopol DM, Kim S (2014) Prognosis and life-cycle assessment based on SHM information. In: Sensor technologies for civil infrastructures. Woodhead Publishing, pp 145–171 Frangopol DM, Kim S (2014) Prognosis and life-cycle assessment based on SHM information. In: Sensor technologies for civil infrastructures. Woodhead Publishing, pp 145–171
Zurück zum Zitat Garthwaite P, Kadane J, O’Hagan A (2005) Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J Am Stat Assoc 100(470):680–701CrossRef Garthwaite P, Kadane J, O’Hagan A (2005) Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J Am Stat Assoc 100(470):680–701CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lipscomb J, Parmigiani G, Hasselblad V (1998) Combining expert judgement by hierarchical modeling: an application to physician staffing. Manage Sci 44(2):149–161CrossRef Lipscomb J, Parmigiani G, Hasselblad V (1998) Combining expert judgement by hierarchical modeling: an application to physician staffing. Manage Sci 44(2):149–161CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Oboni C, Oboni F (2018) Geoethical consensus building through independent risk assessments. In: Resources for future generations 2018 (RFG2018). Vancouver BC, June 16–21, 2018 Oboni C, Oboni F (2018) Geoethical consensus building through independent risk assessments. In: Resources for future generations 2018 (RFG2018). Vancouver BC, June 16–21, 2018
Zurück zum Zitat Oboni F, Oboni C (2016) The long shadow of human-generated geohazards: risks and crises. In: Farid A (ed.) Geohazards caused by human activity. InTechOpen. ISBN: 978–953–51–2802–1, Print ISBN 978–953–51–2801–4 Oboni F, Oboni C (2016) The long shadow of human-generated geohazards: risks and crises. In: Farid A (ed.) Geohazards caused by human activity. InTechOpen. ISBN: 978–953–51–2802–1, Print ISBN 978–953–51–2801–4
Zurück zum Zitat Oboni F, Oboni C, Caldwell J (2014) Risk assessment of the long-term performance of closed tailings. In: Tailings and Mine Waste 2014. Keystone CO, USA, October 5–8, 2014 Oboni F, Oboni C, Caldwell J (2014) Risk assessment of the long-term performance of closed tailings. In: Tailings and Mine Waste 2014. Keystone CO, USA, October 5–8, 2014
Zurück zum Zitat Rosenblueth E (1975) Point estimates for probability moments. Proc National Acad Sci USA PNAS 72(10):3812–3814CrossRef Rosenblueth E (1975) Point estimates for probability moments. Proc National Acad Sci USA PNAS 72(10):3812–3814CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Straub D, Grêt-Regamey A (2006) A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations. Cold Regions Sci Technol 46:192–203CrossRef Straub D, Grêt-Regamey A (2006) A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations. Cold Regions Sci Technol 46:192–203CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Defining Probabilities of Events
verfasst von
Franco Oboni
Cesar H. Oboni
Copyright-Jahr
2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74930-9_8