An Uncertainty Method for Probabilistic Analysis of Buildings Impacted by Rockfall in a Limestone Quarry in Fengshan, Southwestern China

Rockfall is a common occurrence in open-pit mines in China, and seriously threatens lives and buildings. The damage to buildings includes many uncertainty factors, such as the occurrence of rockfall, runout trajectory, and impact energy. A uncertainty method was used to assess the probability of rockfall impacting buildings. The process includes four steps: (A) Calculating the probability of rockfall occurrence. (B) Probability analysis of the rockfall reaching the building and its energy. (C) Calculation of the building’s vulnerability to rockfall impact. (D) Probability assessment of the building collapse. (E) Design options for protecting the building from rockfall damage. The method is applied in an abandoned limestone quarry in Fengshan, southwestern China. The results indicate that rockfalls have two kinds of failure modes: slide and topple, whose failure probability is 0–0.488 in the different quarry zones. The probabilities of three buildings located at the bottom of the quarry of collapsing from rockfall impact are 0.188, 0.006, and 0.002. A rockfall platform and vegetation planting at the bottom of the quarry could prevent rockfall from reaching the buildings.