Machine Learning Approach to Model Rock Strength: Prediction and Variable Selection with Aid of Log Data

Comprehensive knowledge and analysis of in situ rock strength and geo-mechanical characteristics of rocks are crucial in hydrocarbon and mineral exploration stage to maximize wellbore performance, maintain wellbore stability, and optimize hydraulic fracturing process. Due to the high cost of laboratory-based measurements of rock mechanics properties, the log-based prediction is a viable option. Nowadays, the machine learning tools are being used for estimation of the in situ rock properties using wireline log data. This paper proposes a machine learning approach for rock strength (uniaxial compressive strength) prediction. The main objectives are to investigate the performance of data-driven predictive model in determining this vital parameter and to select features of predictor log variables in the model. The backpropagation multilayer perception (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) with Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm as well as the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) with coupled simulated annealing (CSA) optimization technique is employed to develop the dynamic data-driven models. Capturing nonlinear, high dimensional, and complex nature of real field log data, the rock strength models’ performances are evaluated using statistical criteria to ensure concerning the model reliability and accuracy. The model predictions are compared and validated against the measured values as well as the results obtained from existing log-based correlations. Both the MLP-ANN and the CSA-based LS-SVM connectionist strategies are able to predict the rock strength so that there is a very good match between the model results and corresponding measured values. The input log parameters are ranked based on their contributions in prediction performance. The acoustic travel time and gamma ray are found to have the highest relative significance in estimating rock strength. New correlations are also developed to obtain the in situ rock strength of the siliciclastic sedimentary rocks using the most important log parameters such as dynamic sonic slowness, formation electron density, and shalyness effect. The developed correlations can be used to obtain quick estimation of dynamic uniaxial compressive strength profile using wireline logging data, instead of static data from the surface measurements or laboratory data. It is expected that the proposed models and tools will enable oil and gas engineers to better predict rock strength and thus enhance wellbore performance.