Involving resilience in assessment of the water–energy–food nexus for arid and semiarid regions

Due to the unsustainable consumption of resources and climate change, it is increasingly difficult to maintain the security of the water–energy–food nexus, especially in regions with low availability. Thus, the need to design more resilient systems is key to sustainable development. Quantifying resilience in integrated systems such as the water–energy–food nexus is a useful way to identify vulnerable areas of the system and thereby take corrective actions to reduce the incidence of interruptions to basic services. Therefore, this work presents a systematic approach to assess the resilience of the water–energy–food nexus in arid and semi-arid regions. Through the proposed approach, it is possible to evaluate how the system failures caused by hurricanes, low-temperature events, and droughts affect the supply of water, energy and food. A resilience index is proposed, which involves penalization costs associated with the resource supply failures of the system. To apply the proposed approach, scenarios corresponding to past conditions and future projections were evaluated for two Mexican arid cities. The results show that in future years the nexus will be vulnerable to extreme events if the conditions for the resource management do not change. The proposed approach allows estimating the economic losses associated with the existence of natural disasters, making it an efficient decision-making tool to implement strategies and improve the security of the water–energy–food nexus.