Rules for Optimal Operation of Reservoir-River-Groundwater Systems Considering Water Quality Targets: Application of M5P Model

The aim of this paper is to develop rules for optimal reservoir operation and water withdrawal from river and aquifer considering water supply and pollution control targets. The general approach is making use of an integrated water quantity-quality management (IWQM) modeling in conjunction with accurate data mining techniques. The IWQM model generates data, including; optimal releases and water withdrawal from river and aquifer for different conditions, and M5P and Support Vector Regression (SVR) data mining models utilize the results of the IWQM model for the derivation of rules. The IWQM model minimizes the deviation from water supply and water quality targets during the planning horizon. This method for derivation of operating rules is applied to a real world case study, Zayandehrood system, in Iran, with serious water supply and water pollution problems. The IWQM model is analyzed for different hydrologic and water demands scenarios with total dissolved solids (TDS) as the water quality indicator. Results show that an integrated approach to reservoir-river-aquifer operation in the study area can reduce the TDS by 43 % in the downstream river.