Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios

Climate change (precipitation and temperature) has significantly affected the hydrological regimes and future climate projection. Integration of climate model with physical based model is crucial for quantitative measurement of changes in surface water regime. For accurate estimation, modelling framework need finer scale resolution of climate model output. In this study, we examined the bias corrected, statistically downscale models drawn from the NASA, Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections–Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP5) over the study region. The rainfall and temperature projection output from the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3 and their ensemble mean performed well over the Mahi River basin (MRB), India. In this study, the climate data integrated with the SWAT model to analyse the potential impact of climate change on the discharge of MRB. The finding indicates that in the near future (2011–2040) projection of annual average streamflow increases by 76.74% based on the INMCM-4 outputs, 25% based on the MRI-CGCM3 outputs, and 24.53% based on the ensemble mean in comparison to the baseline period (1981–2010). Further, the modelling results of mean monthly streamflow in rainy season indicated that the lowest and highest streamflow changes will be ranging from about 631.07–2718.42 m³/s as observed by INMCM-4, 491.71–2938 m³/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 513.02–2270.18 m³/s observed by ensemble mean, in the near future. Similarly, in the summer season, the lowest level of stream flow is found to be 158.27 m³/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 193.38 m³/s (ensemble mean) and 258.53 m³/s (INMCM-4), respectively. Additionally, the streamflow trend was assessed by Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope method at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales. The future streamflow projection represented the ascending trend observed in south west and winter monsoon, while the descending trend was observed in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon under the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3, and ensemble mean. Results on projected precipitation, temperature and streamflow accretion would help to develop effective adaptation measures for reducing the impacts of climate change and to work out long-term water resource management plans in the river basin.