Introduction
Approach and data sources
Reference scenario
2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OECD Europe | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
OECD North America | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
OECD Pacific | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
Transition economies | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
India | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
China | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
Rest of developing Asia | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
Latin America | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Africa | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
Middle East | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
World | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
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➢ Autonomous energy efficiency improvement, which occurs due to technological developments. Each new generation of capital goods is likely to be more energy efficient than the one before.
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➢ Policy-induced energy efficiency improvement as a result of which economic actors change their behaviour and invest in more energy efficient technologies or improve energy management.
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➢ Structural changes that can have a downward or upward effect on the economy’s energy intensity. An example of a downward effect is a shift in the economy away from energy-intensive industrial activities to service-related activities. Also there can be demand saturation in certain sectors or countries. For instance, in a country with already comparatively high volumes of passenger travel, the increase of GDP may lead to a lower than linear increase of passenger travel and thereby decreasing energy intensity.
Final energy demand (EJ) | Final energy demand (GJ/capita) | Primary energy supply (EJ) | Conversion efficiency (%) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 2050 | 2005 | 2050 | 2005 | 2050 | 2005 | 2050 | |
OECD North America | 71 | 107 | 164 | 186 | 106 | 157 | 68% | 68% |
OECD Pacific | 21 | 28 | 105 | 156 | 32 | 43 | 66% | 64% |
OECD Europe | 52 | 68 | 97 | 120 | 72 | 89 | 72% | 76% |
Transition economies | 27 | 42 | 78 | 142 | 42 | 64 | 63% | 65% |
India | 13 | 55 | 12 | 33 | 21 | 92 | 64% | 60% |
China | 43 | 121 | 32 | 85 | 68 | 202 | 62% | 60% |
Rest of developing Asia | 20 | 46 | 21 | 30 | 28 | 66 | 72% | 70% |
Latin America | 15 | 37 | 34 | 58 | 20 | 48 | 78% | 76% |
Middle East | 12 | 31 | 63 | 89 | 18 | 49 | 65% | 63% |
Africa | 18 | 37 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 51 | 74% | 72% |
World | 293 | 571 | 45 | 62 | 439 | 867 | 67% | 66% |
Technical potentials
Transport
Freight (MJ/t-km) | Passenger (MJ/p-km) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | Reference 2050 | Technical potential 2050 | 2005 | Reference 2050 | Technical potential 2050 | |
Medium freight | Buses | |||||
OECD Europe | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
OECD North America | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
OECD Pacific | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Transition economies | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
China | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
India | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rest of developing Asia | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Latin America | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Africa | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Middle East | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
World Average | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Heavy freight | Two-wheel | |||||
OECD Europe | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
OECD North America | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
OECD Pacific | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
Transition economies | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
China | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
India | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Rest of developing Asia | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Latin America | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Africa | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Middle East | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
World Average | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Freight rail | Three-wheel | |||||
OECD Europe | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
OECD North America | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
OECD Pacific | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Transition economies | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
China | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
India | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Rest of developing Asia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Latin America | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Africa | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Middle East | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
World Average | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
National marine | LDV (litre/100 v-km) | |||||
OECD Europe | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 |
OECD North America | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 3.0 |
OECD Pacific | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.6 |
Transition economies | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 2.6 |
China | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 2.9 |
India | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 2.8 |
Rest of developing Asia | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 2.9 |
Latin America | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 2.9 |
Africa | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.5 |
Middle East | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.0 |
World Average | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 |
All regions | Air | |||||
2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | ||||
All regions | Passenger rail | |||||
0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Region | Energy efficiency improvement potential (%/year) | Autonomous energy efficiency improvement in reference scenario (%/year) | Energy efficiency improvement in comparison to reference scenario (%/year) |
---|---|---|---|
World | 2.8% | 0.5% | 2.3% |
OECD North America | 3.0% | 0.4% | 2.6% |
OECD Europe | 2.9% | 0.6% | 2.3% |
OECD Pacific | 2.8% | 0.6% | 2.2% |
Transition economies | 2.8% | 0.4% | 2.4% |
India | 2.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
China | 2.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
Rest of developing Asia | 2.6% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
Latin America | 2.9% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
Middle East | 2.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
Africa | 2.8% | 0.7% | 2.1% |
Industry
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Cement production: Two important processes in producing cement are clinker production and the blending of clinker with additives to produce cement. Clinker production is the most energy-intensive step in cement production. The current state of the art kilns consume 3.0 GJ/tonne clinker. The thermodynamic minimum is 1.8 GJ/tonne clinker, but strongly depends on the moisture content of the raw materials and fuels. The global average specific energy consumption per tonne clinker equals 4.2 GJ per tonne (based on REEEP 2008). Based on current state of the art this implies a savings potential of 30%.
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Ammonia production: Ammonia production consumed more energy than any other process in the chemical industry and accounted for 18% of the energy consumed in this sector. Ammonia is mainly applied as a feedstock for fertilizer production. Current best practice energy intensity (excluding feedstock)2 is 8 GJ/tonne ammonia (Sinton et al. 2002). Average energy use for ammonia production in 2005 is equivalent to 15 GJ/tonne3 NH3 (REEEP 2008). This corresponds to an average savings potential of 45% based on current best practice technology.
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Chlorine production: Chlorine production is the main electricity consuming process in the chemical industry, followed by oxygen and nitrogen production. The most efficient production process for chlorine production is the membrane process that consumes 2,600 kWh/tonne chlorine, which is already close to the most efficient technology considered feasible (IEA 2008a, b, c and Sinton et al. 2002). At the moment, however, the mercury process is still commonly used for chlorine production, with an energy intensity of around 4,000–4,500 kWh/tonne chlorine. Worldwide, the average energy intensity for chlorine production is around 3,600 kWh/tonne4 chlorine (IEA 2008a, b, c and Sinton et al. 2002). This corresponds to a savings potential of 28% for electricity use in chlorine production, based on the application of membrane technology.
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Aluminium production: The worldwide energy intensity for aluminium production is 15.3 MWh per tonne of aluminium in 2006 (based on USGS 2008 and International Aluminium Institute 2008). The theoretical minimum energy requirement for electrolysis is 6.4 MWh/tonne (IEA 2008a, b, c). The current best practice is 12–13 MWh per tonne (Worrell et al. 2008), which implies an improvement potential of 20%.
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Iron and steel recycling: The energy efficiency for iron and steel production is influenced by the technologies used and the amount of scrap input. The energy intensity for recycled steel is around 70–75% lower than the energy intensity for primary steel. The most energy-intensive part of steel making is the reduction of iron oxide. The higher the share of iron in total steel production (i.e. the lower the share of scrap input used) the higher the specific energy consumption. In 2005, 35% of all crude steel production is derived from scrap (IEA 2006). The potential for recycling steel depends on the availability of scrap. Neelis and Patel (2006) estimate that the potential for the share of scrap in total steel production can be between 60% and 70% by 2100. Based on 70% lower energy intensity for recycled steel and 50% steel recycling in 2050 (average of 35% in 2005 and 65% in 2100), this results in 14% savings due to steel recycling in 2050.
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Aluminium recycling: The production of primary aluminium from alumina (made out of bauxite) is an energy-intensive process. Secondary aluminium, produced out of recycled scrap uses only 5% of the energy demand for primary production because it involves remelting of the metal instead of the electrochemical reduction process (Phylipsen, 2000). Around 16 million tonnes of aluminium was recycled in 2006 worldwide, which fulfilled around 33% of the global demand for aluminium (46 million tonnes; World Aluminium 2008). Of the total amount of recycled aluminium, approximately 17% comes from packaging, 38% from transport, 32% from building and 13% from other products. Recycling rates of aluminium can be further increased, e.g. in Sweden, 92% of aluminium cans are recycled and in Switzerland 88%, while the European average is only 40% (European Aluminium Association 2008). The recycling rates for building and transport applications also show a wide range from 60% to 90% in various countries. If the recycling rate of aluminium can be increased from 33% to 50% of aluminium production in 2050, this would lead to energy savings of 22% in 2050.
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Cement production—reduce clinker content: The energy use per tonne cement ranges from 1.2 to 5 GJ/tonne cement and depends largely on the share of clinker in cement production (ENCI 2002). Substantial energy savings can be obtained by reducing the amount of clinker required. One option to reduce clinker use is by substituting clinker by industrial by-products such as coal fly ash, blast furnace slag or pozzolanic materials (e.g. volcanic material). The relative importance of additive use can be expressed by the clinker to cement ratio. The clinker to cement ratio for current cement production ranges from 25% to 99% and the average clinker to cement ratio equals 80% (ENCI 2002). If this ratio would be reduced to 50%, this corresponds to an energy savings potential of 35%, assuming sufficient substitution material is available.
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Material efficiency of plastics production: Worrell et al. (1995) estimate a technical potential for material efficiency in (virgin) plastics production of 31%, of which 45% can be achieved by efficient product design, 35% by recycling, 12% by good housekeeping and 8% by material substitution. Hekkert et al. (1998) indicate that it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions related to packaging in Europe by more than 50% in the period 2000–2020 by lighter packaging, reusable packaging, material substitution and the use of recycled material.
Buildings and others
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➢ Triple-glazed windows with low-emittance coatings, which reduce heat loss to 40% compared to windows with one layer. The low-emittance coating prevents energy waves in sunlight coming in and thereby reduces cooling need.
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➢ Insulation of roofs, walls, floors and basement. Proper insulation reduces heating and cooling demand by 50% in comparison to average energy demand.
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➢ Passive solar energy, which makes use of the supply of solar energy by means of building design (building’s site and window orientation). The term ‘passive’ indicates that no mechanical equipment is used. All solar gains are brought in through windows.
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➢ Balanced ventilation with heat recovery. Heated indoor air passes to a heat recovery unit and is used to heat incoming outdoor air.
Region | Specific space heating (kJ/m2/HDD) |
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OECD Europe | 113 |
OECD North America | 78 |
OECD Pacific | 52 |
Region | Existing buildings | New dwellings due to replacement of old buildings as share of total dwellings in 2050 | New dwellings due to population growth as share of total in 2050 |
---|---|---|---|
OECD Europe | 52% | 41% | 7% |
OECD North America | 36% | 29% | 35% |
OECD Pacific | 55% | 44% | 1% |
Transition economies | 55% | 45% | 0% |
Average dwellings in 2004 | New dwellings (> 2010) | Retrofitted dwellings in 2050 | Average dwelling in 2050 | Energy efficiency improvement in 2050 in comparison to 2004 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
OECD Europe | 113 | 35 (48%) | 57 (52%) | 46 | 59% |
OECD North America | 78 | 35 (64%) | 47 (36%) | 39 | 50% |
OECD Pacific | 52 | 35 (45%) | 38 (55%) | 37 | 29% |
Transition economies | 81 (assumption, average OECD) | 35 (45%) | 49 (55%) | 43 | 47% |
Other non-OECD countries | NA | NA | NA | NA | 46% |
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Standby (8%)
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Lighting (15%)
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Cold appliances (15%)
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Appliances (30%)
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Air conditioning (8%)
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Other (e.g. electric heating; 24%)
Region | Luminous efficacy (lm/W) | Technical potential for energy efficiency improvement in 2050a
| % energy efficiency improvement per year |
---|---|---|---|
OECD Europe | 40 | 60% | 2.3% |
OECD Pacific (based on Japan) | 65 | 35% | 1.1% |
OECD North America | 30 | 70% | 3.0% |
Transition economies (TE) | 20 | 80% | 3.9% |
China | 50 | 50% | 1.7% |
Other regions (India, Rest of developing Asia, Latin America, Africa, Middle East) | 20b
| 80% | 3.9% |
Global | 40 | 60% | 2.4% |
Fuel and heat consumption | Electricity consumption (%/year) | Total potential (%/year) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Space heating and others | Standby | Lighting | Appliances | Cold appliances | Air conditioning | Other/average | ||
OECD Europe | 2.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3% | 3.1% | 2.6% |
OECD North America | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | ||||
OECD Pacific | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | ||||
Transition economies | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | ||||
China | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | ||||
India | 1.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | ||||
Rest developing Asia | 1.4% | 2.0% | ||||||
Middle East | 1.4% | 2.2% | ||||||
Latin America | 1.4% | 2.2% | ||||||
Africa | 1.4% | 1.8% | ||||||
World | 1.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3% | 3.5% | 3% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
Transformation sector
2005 | 2050 | Energy efficiency improvement (%/year) 2010–2050 | |
---|---|---|---|
OECD Pacific | 41% | 53% | 0.6% |
OECD Europe | 39% | 53% | 0.8% |
OECD North America | 38% | 52% | 0.8% |
Rest of developing Asia | 38% | 54% | 0.9% |
Africa | 36% | 53% | 1.0% |
Latin America | 36% | 55% | 1.1% |
Middle East | 32% | 56% | 1.4% |
China | 28% | 50% | 1.4% |
India | 28% | 51% | 1.5% |
Transition economies | 19% | 56% | 2.7% |
World | 33% | 53% | 1.2% |
Results
Sector | Reference scenario | Technical potential scenario | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 (EJ) | 2050 (EJ) | 2050 (EJ) | Savings 2050 in comparison to reference 2050 (EJ) | Savings as share in primary energy savings (%) | Growth energy use in 2005/2050 | Reduction in 2050 in comparison to reference 2050 | |
Industry | 88 | 178 | 103 | 75 | 16% | +17% | 42% |
Transport | 84 | 183 | 75 | 108 | 23% | −11% | 59% |
Buildings and Agriculture | 121 | 210 | 139 | 71 | 15% | +15% | 34% |
Total final energy demand | 293 | 571 | 317 | 254 | 54% | +8% | 44% |
Energy losses in transformation/distribution | 146 | 296 | 76a
| 220 | 46% | −48% | 75%b
|
–Savings due to reduced demand | 132 | 28% | |||||
–Savings due to efficiency improvement transformation sector | 88 | 19% | |||||
Total primary energy supply | 439 | 867 | 393 | 474 | 100% | −10% | 55% |
Reference scenario 2050 | Technical potential scenario | Greenpeace/EREC (2008) Energy [R]evolution | IEA BLUE Map (2008) | EC WETO CCC | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final energy demand in 2050 (EJ) | 571 | 317 | 350 | 431 | 498 |
GDP growth in period 2005–2050 (%) | 440% | 440% | 440% | 430% | 320% |
Energy-intensity decrease (final energy demand/GDP) in period 2005–2050 (%/year) | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
–Energy efficiency improvement (%/year)a
| 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | |
–Structural change (%/year) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
Primary energy supply in 2050 (EJ) | 867 | 393 | 481 | ∼670 | 813 |
Conversion efficiency (ratio final energy demand/primary energy supply) | 66% | 81% | 73% | 64% | 61% |
Discussion of uncertainties
Sector | Areas for data improvement |
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Industry | Global estimates were used to calculate energy efficiency potentials for industry, because limited regional specific data were available for this study. This could be improved by looking at national statistics and potential studies. |
Transport | Detailed data regarding energy use in transport by region was available in IEA/SMP (2004). This source is however quite old and data might have changed in the meantime so more recent sources would be preferred. |
Buildings and others | In general there is a high uncertainty in data regarding energy use in buildings due to sector divergence. More specifically, there was a lack of data for non-OECD countries regarding specific energy consumption of dwellings. Furthermore, for all regions the potential for services sector was assumed to be the same as for dwellings due to lack of data. |
Transformation sector | For coal transformation and oil refineries the same energy efficiency potentials are assumed as for industries. These estimates could be improved by using specific data for these sub sectors. For power generation, the main focus was on fossil power generation. For renewable and nuclear power generation technologies few data on energy efficiency improvement was available. These estimates could therefore be improved. |