Extended fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach in water and environmental management (case study: Lake Urmia Basin, Iran)

Recent researches reveal that many global attempts have been made to protect water resources; however, substantial environmental concerns have not yet been sufficiently addressed. Lake Urmia in Iran is plagued by natural and anthropogenic driving forces and its water level has fallen by about 3 m below the minimum ecological water level. To deal with the divergent interests and multiple objectives associated with the lake’s water resources, a multidisciplinary and flexible approach is then required. The present research phases included: (1) determining the effective internal and external factors along with formulating strategic alternatives for reviving the lake’s water resources via strength–weakness–opportunity–threat (SWOT–TOWS) matrix; (2) prioritizing the alternatives according to sustainable development criteria via extended fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) technique, and (3) applying sensitivity analysis to monitor the robustness of the ranking. Representatives of the stakeholders, managers and experts participated in the process of decision making. To consider the different viewpoints and the overall possibility distributions of fuzzy numbers, three ranking procedures were developed through the extended FAHP, reflecting neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic viewpoints. According to the final prioritization, human resources management and promotion of stakeholders’ participation stood superior to the other strategic alternatives. In this framework, SWOT–TOWS analysis performed as an appropriate prerequisite to formulate practical strategies for supporting of a sustainable development vision. The extended FAHP made a valid contribution to the proposed framework and sensitivity analysis of the results proved capability of the extended FAHP as a robust tool for decision making in comprehensive water problems.