Numerical modeling of seawater intrusion in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City in northern China

Since 1980s, seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers caused by groundwater over-abstraction has led to extensive deterioration in groundwater quality and quantity and has been fazing local residents in Zhoushuizi district of the metropolitan Dalian City in northern China. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) density-dependent numerical model was constructed to simulate the seawater intrusion process in heterogeneous coastal aquifers in Zhoushuizi district of the metropolitan Dalian City. Considering that the groundwater flow in karst aquifers in northern China is relatively uniform, approximately following Darcy’s law, the fracture-karst aquifer in Zhoushuizi district of Dalian City was simplified as an equivalent porous medium. To further identify the hydrogeological parameters of the aquifers in the study area, the model was calibrated and validated using the observation heads and concentrations. Based on the current groundwater abstraction conditions of the study area, the calibrated and validated model was then applied to predict the dynamics and trend of seawater intrusion for the following 30 years from 2010 to 2040 under different rainfall scenarios. The overall extent of seawater intrusion in the future would be even more severe under different prediction scenarios. This 3D seawater intrusion model provides the theoretical basis for implementing a reasonable allocation of groundwater resource, which may significantly affect the sustainability of water resources.