nach oben

Journal of Quantitative Economics

Erschienen in:

15.03.2018 | Original Article

Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India

verfasst von: Devika Hazra, Zhen Cui

Erschienen in: Journal of Quantitative Economics | Sonderheft 1/2018

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between crime, inflation, unemployment, and real GDP per capita in India. Based on the national-level data, the Johansen cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test suggests that macroeconomic indicators, especially unemployment, can significantly affect crime in India. Based on the state-level data, the ordinary least squares results corroborate the effect of inflation on crime even after controlling for governance. However, they fail to verify the relationship between crime, unemployment, and real GDP per capita.

Vorheriger Artikel Financial Liberalization and Allocation of Capital: Dark Side of the Moon

Nächster Artikel Is PMI Useful in Quarterly GDP Growth Forecasts for India? An Exploratory Note

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

The definition of each type is as follows. Crimes against body follow the IPC definition. Crimes against women include IPC crimes against women as well as crimes under Sati Prevention Act, Immoral Act, Dowry Prohibition Act, and Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act. Violent crimes include murder, attempt to murder, culpable homicide not amounting to murder, attempt to commit culpable homicide, rape, kidnapping and abduction, dacoity, preparation and assembly for dacoity, robbery, riots, arson, and dowry deaths. Crimes against public order, crimes against property, and economic crimes follow their respective IPC definitions. Economic offenses are crimes committed under Prevention of Corruption Act and related sections of IPC.

Detailed results in this subsection as well as in subsections "IPC Crimes" and "Economic vs. Non-economic Crimes" are omitted in the paper but available upon request.

We were able to run a panel VAR without unemployment and with only one-time lag. Inflation is found to Granger cause total crimes. No Granger causality is found between other variables.

Unfortunately, this practice results in the following caveat. The crime variable in our state-level OLS analysis now indicates growth rate, while total crimes in our national-level VAR analysis are expressed in levels. Thus, we here caution against a direct and exact comparison between the state-level and the national-level results. Only a broad and general conclusion can be drawn.

Striving for maximum number of observations, we use log (complaints + 0.1) to account for cases of zero complaint.

This finding is also robust to the inclusion of inequality, measured by state-wise Gini coefficients, as state fixed effects. Detailed results are available upon request.

The following formula is used: \( e^{{0.01 \times \beta_{2} }} - 1 = e^{0.01 \times 5} - 1 = 5\% \).

Alimi, S.R., and C.C. Ofonyelu. 2013. Toda-Yamamoto causality test between money market interest rate and expected inflation: The Fisher hypothesis revisited. European Scientific Journal 9 (7): 125–142.

Allen, R.C. 1996. Socioeconomic conditions and property crime. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 55 (3): 293–308.CrossRef

Becker, G.S. 1968. Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy 76 (2): 169–217.CrossRef

Brenner, M.H. (1976). Effects of the economy on criminal behavior and the administration of criminal justice in the United States, Canada, England and Wales and Scotland. Economic Crises and Crime, 26–65.

Dutta, M., and Husain, Z. (2009). Determinants of crime rates: Crime deterrence and growth in post-liberalized India. Munich Personal RePEc Archive Paper. No. 14478. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14478/1/mdutta_and_zhusain.pdf. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2016). Crime in the United States [Uniform Crime Reports online]. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Gillani, S.Y.M., H.U. Rehman, and A.R. Gill. 2009. Unemployment, poverty, inflation and crime nexus: Cointegration and causality analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review 47 (1): 79–98.

Home Office Crime and Policing Analysis. (2017). Police recorded crime open data tables. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/historical-crime-data. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Kaur, S. (2014). Determining what factors affect violent crimes: A study in India and Italy. http://fsm.ac.in/pdf/wp_14_13.pdf. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Khan, N., J. Ahmed, M. Nawaz, and K. Zaman. 2015. The socio-economic determinants of crime in Pakistan: New evidence on an old debate. ARAB Economics and Business Journal 10: 7–81.CrossRef

Kyodo. (2016). Number of reported crimes in Japan fell to postwar low in 2015. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/01/14/national/crime-legal/number-crimes-japan-falls-postwar-low-2015/#.WVEqNsaZORs. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Maddala, G.S. 2001. Introduction to econometrics. England: Wiley.

Mavi, A.K. 2014. An economic analysis of IPC crimes and SLL crimes in India. International Journal of Scientific Research and Education 10 (2): 2166–2190.

Miethe, T.D., M. Hughes, and D. McDowall. 1991. Social change and crime rates: An evaluation of alternative theoretical approaches. Social Forces 70 (1): 165–185.CrossRef

Mukherjee, C., P. Rustagi, and N. Krishnaji. 2001. Crimes against women in India: Analysis of official statistics. Economic and Political Weekly 36 (43): 4070–4080.

Mundle, S., Chakraborty, P., Chowdhury, S., ands Sikdar, S. (2012). The quality of governance: How have Indian states performed? National Institute of Public Finance and Policy Working Paper No. 2012-104. http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2013/04/wp_2012_104.pdf. Accessed 10 Nov 2017.

Nayar, B.R. 1975. Violence and crime in India: A quantitative study. Delhi: Macmillan Company of India.

Statistics Canada. (2015). Policy-reported crime statistics in Canada, 2015. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2016001/article/14642-eng.htm. Accessed 3 July 2017.

Tang, C.F., and H.H. Lean. 2007. Will inflation increase crime rate? New evidence from bounds and modified Wald tests. Global Crime 8 (4): 311–323.CrossRef

Tang, C.F. 2009. The linkages among inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Management 3 (1): 50–61.

Toda, H.Y., and T. Yamamoto. 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics 66 (1–2): 225–250.CrossRef

Umaru, A., M. Donga, E.J. Gambo, and K.M. Yakubu. 2013. Relationship between crime level, unemployment, poverty, corruption and inflation in Nigeria: An empirical analysis. Global Advanced Research Journal of Management and Business Studies 2 (8): 411–422.

Titel: Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India
verfasst von: Devika Hazra
Zhen Cui
Publikationsdatum: 15.03.2018
Verlag: Springer India
Erschienen in: Journal of Quantitative Economics / Ausgabe Sonderheft 1/2018
Print ISSN: 0971-1554
Elektronische ISSN: 2364-1045
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-018-0127-6

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Weitere Artikel der Sonderheft 1/2018

Is PMI Useful in Quarterly GDP Growth Forecasts for India? An Exploratory Note

Financial Liberalization and Allocation of Capital: Dark Side of the Moon

Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers

Some Economics of Fertiliser Subsidy

Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach

Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?

Premium Partner