nach oben

Erschienen in:

2011 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach

verfasst von : C. Smith, Dominic R. Kniveton, S. Wood, R. Black

Erschienen in: African Climate and Climate Change

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

Past estimates of the numbers of migrants caused to relocate as a result of climate change have ranged from millions to billions worldwide. Attempts to quantify the numbers of people affected have commonly been based around calculating the numbers of ‘environmental refugees’ by projecting physical climate changes, such as sea-level rise or rainfall decline, on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the ability of individuals to cope with variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration have not supported such an approach with the recognition that migration decisions are usually not mono-causal but influenced by multiple factors involving complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions. In this context, agent based modelling offers a robust method to model autonomous decision making in relation to migration. In this chapter we discuss the theoretical development of an agent-based modelling approach to climate change-migration studies using the example of Burkina Faso. In doing so we cover questions of emergence, validation, and bounded rationality related to quantitative migration studies.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Farmer Responses to Intra-seasonal Precipitation Trends in South Africa

Ajzen I (1988) Attitudes, personality and behaviour. Milton Keynes, Open University Press

Ajzen I (1991) The theory of planned behavior. Organ Behav Hum Deci Process 50:179–211.CrossRef

Ajzen I (2006) Constructing a TpB Questionnaire: Conceptual and Methodological Considerations. Available online at: http://www.people.umass.edu/aizen/pdf/tpd.measurement.pdf

Albarracín D, Johnson BT, Fishbein M, Muellerleile PA (2001) Theories of reasoned action and planned behavior as models of condom use: a meta-analysis. Psychol Bull 127:142–161CrossRef

Bandura A (1999) Self-efficacy: the exercise of control. J Cogn Psychother 13:158–166

Black R (2001) Environmental refugees: myth or reality Geneva, UNHCR

Burke EJ, Brown SJ, Christidis N (2006) Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the hadley centre climate model. J Hydrometeorol 7:1113–1125CrossRef

Carley KM (1996) Validating computational models. Working paper. Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.

Cheung SF, Chan DK-S, Wong ZS-Y (1999) Reexamining the theory of planned behavior in understanding wastepaper recycling. Environ Behav 31:587–612CrossRef

Christian & Aid (2007) Human tide: the real migration crisis – A christian aid report. London, Christian Aid

Conner M, Kirk SFL, Cade JE, Barrett JH (2003) Environmental influences: factors influencing a woman’s decision to use dietary supplements. J Nutr 133:1978S–1982S

Cordell DD, Gregory JW, Piché V (1996) Hoe and wage: a social history of a circular migration system in west africa. Westview Press, Boulder, CO

De Jong G (1999) Choice processes in migration behaviour. In: Pandit K, Withers SD (eds) Migration and restructuring in the US. Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc, New York, NY

De Jong G (2000) Expectations, gender, and norms in migration decision-making. Popul Stud 54:307–319CrossRef

Findley S (1994) Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural mali during the 1983–1985 drought. Int Migr Rev 28:539–553CrossRef

Fishbein M, Ajzen I (1975) Belief, attitude, intention, behavior: an introduction to theory and research. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA

Fishbein M, Cappella JN (2006) The role of theory in developing effective health communications. J Commun 56(1):S1–S17CrossRef

Grothmann T, Patt A (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Glob Environ Change 15:199–213CrossRef

Henry S, Schoumaker B, Beauchemin C (2004) The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: a multi-level event-history analysis on burkina faso. Popul Environ 25:423–460CrossRef

Kant J-D, Thiriot S (2006) Modeling one human decision maker with a multi-agent system- the CODAGE approach. Proceedings of the fifth international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems.

Kasperson RE, Renn O, Slovic P, Brown HS, Emel J, Goble R, Kasperson JX, Ratick S (1988) The social amplification of risk: a conceptual framework. Risk Anal 8:177–187CrossRef

Kaufmann P, Franks DW, Stagl S (2008) Simulating diffusion of organic farming practices in Two EU Member States.

Krueger NFJ, Carsrud AL (1993) Entrepreneurial intentions: applying the theory of planned behaviour. Entrepreneurship Reg Dev 5:315–330CrossRef

Lee E (1966) A theory of migration. Demography 3:47–57CrossRef

Lu M (1999) Do people move when they say they will? Inconsistencies in individual migration behavior. Popul Environ 20:467–488CrossRef

Lynne GD, Casey FC, Hodges A, Rahmani M (1995) Conservation technology adoption decisions and the theory of planned behavior. J Econ Psychol 16:581–598CrossRef

Mcleman R, Smit B (2006) Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Clim Change 76:31–53CrossRef

Nguyen MN, Potvin L, Otis J (1997) Regular exercise in 30- to 60-year-old men: combining the stages-of-change model and the theory of planned behavior to identify determinants for targeting heart health interventions. J Community Health 22:233–246CrossRef

Perch-Nielsen S (2004) Understanding the effect of climate change on human migration – The contribution of Mathematical and Conceptual Models. Department of environmental sciences. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.

Richmond AH (1993) Reactive migration: sociological perspectives on refugee movements. J Refug Stud 6:7–24CrossRef

Roberts S, Pashler H (2000) How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing. Psychol Rev 107:358–367CrossRef

Roncoli C, Ingram K, Jost C, Kirshen P (2003) Meteorological meanings: farmers' interpretations of seasonal rainfall forecasts in burkina faso. In: Strauss S, Orlove BS (eds) Weather, climate, culture. Oxford, BERG

Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P (2002) Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting in burkina faso society & amp. Nat Res 15:409–427CrossRef

Schwenk G, Reimer T (2008) Simple heuristics in complex networks: models of social influence. JASSS 11:4

Simon HA (1982) Models of bounded rationality. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA

Sivakumar MVK, Gnoumou F (1987) Agroclimatology of West Africa: Burkina Faso. Information Bulletin n. 23. Pantancheru, India, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

Stehr N (2001) Models as focusing tools: linking nature and the social world. In: Von Storch H, Flöser G (eds) Models in environmental research. Berlin, Springer

Stern N (2007) The economics of climate change – the stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Unhcr (2006) Convention and protocol relating to the status of refugees. United Nations High Commission for Refugees, Geneva

Wilbanks TJ, Romero Lankao P, Bao M, Berkhout F, Cairncross S, Ceron J-P, Kapshe M, Muir-Wood R, Zapata-Marti R (2007) Industry, settlement and society. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van Der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Wooldridge M, Jennings NR (2002) An introduction to multi agent systems. Wiley, West Sussex

Ziervogel G, Bithell M, Washington R, Downing T (2005) Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers. Agric Syst 83:1–26CrossRef

Titel: Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach
verfasst von: C. Smith
Dominic R. Kniveton
S. Wood
R. Black
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Buch: African Climate and Climate Change
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-3841-8

Electronic ISBN: 978-90-481-3842-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2011
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_8