Nonlinear consolidation in randomly heterogeneous highly compressible aquitards

Severe land subsidence due to groundwater extraction may occur in multiaquifer systems where highly compressible aquitards are present. The highly compressible nature of the aquitards leads to nonlinear consolidation where the groundwater flow parameters are stress-dependent. The case is further complicated by the heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic and geotechnical properties of the aquitards. The effect of realistic vertical heterogeneity of hydrogeologic and geotechnical parameters on the consolidation of highly compressible aquitards is investigated by means of one-dimensional Monte Carlo numerical simulations where the lower boundary represents the effect of an instant drop in hydraulic head due to groundwater pumping. Two thousand realizations are generated for each of the following parameters: hydraulic conductivity (K), compression index (C _c), void ratio (e) and m (an empirical parameter relating hydraulic conductivity and void ratio). The correlation structure, the mean and the variance for each parameter were obtained from a literature review about field studies in the lacustrine sediments of Mexico City. The results indicate that among the parameters considered, random K has the largest effect on the ensemble average behavior of the system when compared to a nonlinear consolidation model with deterministic initial parameters. The deterministic solution underestimates the ensemble average of total settlement when initial K is random. In addition, random K leads to the largest variance (and therefore largest uncertainty) of total settlement, groundwater flux and time to reach steady-state conditions.