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01.03.2008

An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois

verfasst von: Jie Lin, Cynthia Chen, Debbie A. Niemeier

Erschienen in: Transportation | Ausgabe 2/2008

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Abstract

There have been a number of studies of the effectiveness of vehicle scrappage programs, which offer incentives to accelerated scrappage of older vehicles often thought to be high emitters. These programs are voluntary and aimed at replacement of household vehicles. In contrast, there is a gap in knowledge related to the emissions benefits of government fleet replacement (retirement) programs. In this study, the efficacy of a fleet replacement program for a local government agency in Northern Illinois, the Forest Preserve of DuPage County (FPDC), is examined using a probabilistic vehicle survival model that accounts for time-varying covariates such as vehicle age and gasoline price. The vehicle lifetime operating emissions are calculated based on the estimated vehicle survival probabilities from the survival model and compared with those derived using the EPA default fleet used in MOBILE6 and the fleet represented by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) survival curve. The results suggest that while there may be short term emission benefits of the FPDC fleet replacement plan, the long-term emission benefits are highly sensitive to economic factors (e.g., future gasoline price) and exhibit a decreasing trend. This indicates that an adaptive multi-stage replacement strategy as opposed to a fixed one is preferable to achieve optimal cost effectiveness.

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The FPDC fleet replacement plan started in 2001. It is a 10-year plan to replace or convert its entire fleet to alternative fuel vehicles. The FPDC fleet is currently comprised of over 180 active on-road vehicles including passenger cars, light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. The functions of these vehicles included transporting staff between the Districts many locations, police patrolling of the 24,000 acres, refuse removal, and other maintenance support activities. The replacement plan is based on a “Total Cost” ranking evaluation method. Each vehicle was manually given a numerical point value based on nine criteria, including projected maintenance expense (not including major component replacement cost), projected major component life, safety, structural and body integrity, reliability, downtime, productivity, appearance, structural and driver’s acceptability. Vehicles that were scored the highest were the best candidates for replacement.

Some may argue that the emissions associated with the upstream and downstream lifecycle of a vehicle should be accounted for. While this may be appropriate if the scrappage program is permanent, it is not necessary for a one time program, which affects the vehicle demand and production by bringing forward the demand to the course of the program. The long term vehicle demand and production are not likely to be affected by a one time program.

A post-model sensitivity analysis confirmed that extending a LDV’s age from 25 to 30 years in FPDC had a negligible effect on total life-time emissions by pollutant. The largest increase was 0.2% in PM_2.5 from tire wear-and-tear. The main reasons for these very small differences are (1) that vehicles become much cleaner in the future and emission factors tend to flat out after 20 years (see for example Fig. 6); and (2) survival probabilities after 25 years are quite small. Probably not by coincidence, the 25-year vehicle life is the maximum vehicle age considered in MOBILE6.2.

However, these labor hours, labor costs, and fuel costs are found unreliable. This information is not used in this study.

DuPage County is within the EPA designated 8-hr ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment area. Reformulated unleaded gasoline is mandatory for the region.

Heavy-duty trucks, non-road vehicles (e.g., farm equipment) and other unknown equipment are not included in our analysis. Non-road vehicles were not part of the FPDC replacement plan. They are regulated differently from on-road vehicles. Although outside the scope of this study, it would be worthwhile to study the effect of non-road vehicles’ turnover on emissions in future research.

This is not to be confused with the evaluation period of 2004 through 2028 for the replacement program.

The original dataset does not distinguish between vehicles that are disposed and auctioned. There is no information about the status of those vehicles after they were auctioned. Strictly speaking, the term “vehicle scrappage” is not accurately used but is retained in the rest of paper to maintain consistency. However, it should be understood as vehicle disposal in the rest of the paper.

Undoubtedly there are uncertainties associated with the future gasoline price projection. The uncertainties could be addressed by running different gasoline price scenarios or sensitivity analysis, which are outside the scope of this paper.

Due to the space limitation, not all survival curves were presented in Fig. 4. The curves of 2004 through 2008 (i.e., before and after the gasoline price peak) were included. The curves of the years after 2008 were randomly selected.

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Titel: An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois
verfasst von: Jie Lin
Cynthia Chen
Debbie A. Niemeier
Publikationsdatum: 01.03.2008
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Transportation / Ausgabe 2/2008
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Elektronische ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-007-9149-1

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