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Water Resources Management
Erschienen in: Water Resources Management 8/2013

01.06.2013

A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

verfasst von: Guangyang Wu, Lanhai Li, Sajjad Ahmad, Xi Chen, Xiangliang Pan

Erschienen in: Water Resources Management | Ausgabe 8/2013

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Abstract

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.
Vorheriger Artikel Application of Spatial Analysis Techniques to Select the Most Suitable Areas for Flood Spreading
Nächster Artikel Regional Water Demand Prediction and Analysis Based on Cobb-Douglas Model

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Metadaten
Titel
A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China
verfasst von
Guangyang Wu
Lanhai Li
Sajjad Ahmad
Xi Chen
Xiangliang Pan
Publikationsdatum
01.06.2013
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Erschienen in
Water Resources Management / Ausgabe 8/2013
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z

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