Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Regional Trends and Shift Changes of Autocorrelated Temperature Series in Urmia Lake Basin

Recently, the Urmia Lake located in northwestern Iran which is the second largest hyper saline in the world suffers from the significant fluctuations of water level and surface area. The current study tries to investigate the spatiotemporal trends of mean (T_mean), maximum (T_max) and minimum (T_min) temperatures of monthly, seasonal and annual time-series. To do so, the data of 15 temperature gauge stations within the Urmia Lake basin, for the period 1972–2011 was employed. The pre-whitening approach was applied to remove the effects of serial correlation in the air temperature series based on the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The results of Ljung-Box test showed positive serial correlation in the T_mean and T_max series for all of the stations at the 0.05 significance level. In the monthly series, the significant warming trends in the T_mean series were more perceptible than the same ones in T_max series; however, T_max trend was found more than T_min series. The Mann–Whitney (MW) test detected a significance upward shift changes in the annual T_mean, T_max and T_min series of about 86, 73 and 80 % of the stations, respectively. The average magnitude of significant warming trends in annual T_mean, T_max and T_min series were (+) 0.58 °C, (+) 0.52 °C and (+) 0.69 °C per decade, respectively. Furthermore, the interpolation maps showed that warming trends in the east and west of Urmia Lake were more than southern area. Therefore, the results showed that the basin has suffered from increasing trends in the T_mean, T_max and T_min over the recent decades. Finally, significant changes were found in 1980s and 1990s based on the Mann-Kendall ranks and change point tests. In this study, it is interesting that the period of significant changes in warming trends were close to the beginning of decreasing water level of the Lake.