Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Journal of Visualization 3/2017

10.06.2016 | Regular Paper

Predictive visual analytics of event evolution for user-created context

verfasst von: Hanbyul Yeon, Seokyeon Kim, Yun Jang

Erschienen in: Journal of Visualization | Ausgabe 3/2017

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Digital big data provide the vast potential of increasing effectiveness and efficiency for decision making. Since the volume of the data is enormous, the data analysis requires large amount of time and effort. It is more problematic when predictive analysis is necessary for futuristic decision making. For predictive analysis, there have been many studies to forecast future trends spatio-temporally. However, most of studies provide just future tendency per event using graphs or maps without contextual compositive analysis. In this paper, we present a predictive visual analytics system to provide predictive event patterns. We infer the future event evolution by combining contextually similar cases occurring in the past. We utilize social media data to detect interesting abnormal events and match the detected abnormal events within the past news media data to retrieve similar event patterns. Then, we extract future event patterns through compositing contextual relationship among topics included in the similar past patterns. To evaluate our VA system, we demonstrate three use cases in this paper and validate our system with possible predictive story lines. In addition, we present an informal user study and feedback to validate the effectiveness of our system and improve the system in the future.

Graphical Abstract

Graphical Abstract text

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Adar E, Weld DS, Bershad BN, Gribble SS (2007) Why we search: visualizing and predicting user behavior. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on World Wide Web, ACM, pp 161–170 Adar E, Weld DS, Bershad BN, Gribble SS (2007) Why we search: visualizing and predicting user behavior. In: Proceedings of the 16th international conference on World Wide Web, ACM, pp 161–170
Zurück zum Zitat Asur S, Huberman BA (2010) Predicting the future with social media. In: Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM international conference on web intelligence and intelligent agent technology, vol 01, pp 492–499 Asur S, Huberman BA (2010) Predicting the future with social media. In: Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM international conference on web intelligence and intelligent agent technology, vol 01, pp 492–499
Zurück zum Zitat Becker H (2011) Identification and characterization of events in social media. PhD thesis, Columbia University Becker H (2011) Identification and characterization of events in social media. PhD thesis, Columbia University
Zurück zum Zitat Becker H, Naaman M, Gravano L (2010) Learning similarity metrics for event identification in social media. In: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM international conference on web search and data mining, pp 291–300 Becker H, Naaman M, Gravano L (2010) Learning similarity metrics for event identification in social media. In: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM international conference on web search and data mining, pp 291–300
Zurück zum Zitat Best D, Bruce J, Dowson S, Love O, McGrath L (2012) Web-based visual analytics for social media. In: Proceedings of the workshop on social media visualization (SocMedVis) at ICWSM Best D, Bruce J, Dowson S, Love O, McGrath L (2012) Web-based visual analytics for social media. In: Proceedings of the workshop on social media visualization (SocMedVis) at ICWSM
Zurück zum Zitat Bögl M, Aigner W, Filzmoser P, Gschwandtner T, Lammarsch T, Miksch S, Rind A (2014) Visual analytics methods to guide diagnostics for time series model predictions. In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics Bögl M, Aigner W, Filzmoser P, Gschwandtner T, Lammarsch T, Miksch S, Rind A (2014) Visual analytics methods to guide diagnostics for time series model predictions. In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics
Zurück zum Zitat Bollen J, Mao H, Zeng X (2011) Twitter mood predicts the stock market. J Comput Sci 2(1):1–8 Bollen J, Mao H, Zeng X (2011) Twitter mood predicts the stock market. J Comput Sci  2(1):1–8
Zurück zum Zitat Bosch H, Thom D, Heimerl F, Puttmann E, Koch S, KrÃijger R, WÃűrner M, Ertl T (2013) Scatterblogs2: real-time monitoring of microblog messages through user-guided filtering. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 19(12):2022–2031CrossRef Bosch H, Thom D, Heimerl F, Puttmann E, Koch S, KrÃijger R, WÃűrner M, Ertl T (2013) Scatterblogs2: real-time monitoring of microblog messages through user-guided filtering. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 19(12):2022–2031CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bryan C, Ma K-L, Mniszewski S (2014) Integrating predictive visualization with the epidemic disease simulation system (episims). In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics Bryan C, Ma K-L, Mniszewski S (2014) Integrating predictive visualization with the epidemic disease simulation system (episims). In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics
Zurück zum Zitat Chae J, Thom D, Bosch H, Jang Y, Maciejewski R, Ebert DS, Ertl T (2012) Spatiotemporal social media analytics for abnormal event detection and examination using seasonal-trend decomposition. In: IEEE Conference on visual analytics science and technology, VAST, pp 143–152 Chae J, Thom D, Bosch H, Jang Y, Maciejewski R, Ebert DS, Ertl T (2012) Spatiotemporal social media analytics for abnormal event detection and examination using seasonal-trend decomposition. In: IEEE Conference on visual analytics science and technology, VAST, pp 143–152
Zurück zum Zitat Chae J, Thom D, Jang Y, Kim SY, Ertl T, Ebert DS (2014) Public behavior response analysis in disaster events utilizing visual analytics of microblog data. Comput Graph 38:51–60CrossRef Chae J, Thom D, Jang Y, Kim SY, Ertl T, Ebert DS (2014) Public behavior response analysis in disaster events utilizing visual analytics of microblog data. Comput Graph 38:51–60CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cleveland RB, Cleveland WS, McRae JE, Terpenning I (1990) STL: a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (with discussion). J Off Stat 6:3–73 Cleveland RB, Cleveland WS, McRae JE, Terpenning I (1990) STL: a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (with discussion). J Off Stat 6:3–73
Zurück zum Zitat El Assady M, Jentner W, Stein M, Fischer F, Schreck T, Keim DA (2014) Predictive visual analytics approaches for movie ratings and discussion of open research challenges. In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics El Assady M, Jentner W, Stein M, Fischer F, Schreck T, Keim DA (2014) Predictive visual analytics approaches for movie ratings and discussion of open research challenges. In: Proceedings of the IEEE VIS 2014 workshop visualization for predictive analytics
Zurück zum Zitat Glance NS, Hurst M, Tomokiyo T (2004) Blogpulse: automated trend discovery for weblogs. In: WWW 2004 workshop on the weblogging ecosystem Glance NS, Hurst M, Tomokiyo T (2004) Blogpulse: automated trend discovery for weblogs. In: WWW 2004 workshop on the weblogging ecosystem
Zurück zum Zitat Hao MC, Janetzko H, Mittelstädt S, Hill W, Dayal U, Keim DA, Marwah M, Sharma RK (2011) A visual analytics approach for peak-preserving prediction of large seasonal time series. Comput Graph Forum 30(3):691–700CrossRef Hao MC, Janetzko H, Mittelstädt S, Hill W, Dayal U, Keim DA, Marwah M, Sharma RK (2011) A visual analytics approach for peak-preserving prediction of large seasonal time series. Comput Graph Forum 30(3):691–700CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Havre S, Whitney P, Nowell L (2002) Themeriver: visualizing thematic changes in large document collections. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 8:9–20CrossRef Havre S, Whitney P, Nowell L (2002) Themeriver: visualizing thematic changes in large document collections. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 8:9–20CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Itoh M, Toyoda M, Zhu CZ, Satoh S, Kitsuregawa M (2014) Image flows visualization for inter-media comparison. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2014 IEEE, pp 129–136 Itoh M, Toyoda M, Zhu CZ, Satoh S, Kitsuregawa M (2014) Image flows visualization for inter-media comparison. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2014 IEEE, pp 129–136
Zurück zum Zitat Kraft T, Wang DX, Delawder J, Dou W, Li Y, Ribarsky W (2013) Less after-the-fact: Investigative visual analysis of events from streaming twitter. In: IEEE symposium on large-scale data analysis and visualization, LDAV, pp 95–103 Kraft T, Wang DX, Delawder J, Dou W, Li Y, Ribarsky W (2013) Less after-the-fact: Investigative visual analysis of events from streaming twitter. In: IEEE symposium on large-scale data analysis and visualization, LDAV, pp 95–103
Zurück zum Zitat Krstajic M, Bertini E, Keim DA (2011) Cloudlines: compact display of event episodes in multiple time-series. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 17(12):2432–2439CrossRef Krstajic M, Bertini E, Keim DA (2011) Cloudlines: compact display of event episodes in multiple time-series. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 17(12):2432–2439CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Krstajic M, Najm-Araghi M, Mansmann F, Keim DA (2013) Story tracker: incremental visual text analytics of news story development. Inf Vis 12(3–4):308–323CrossRef Krstajic M, Najm-Araghi M, Mansmann F, Keim DA (2013) Story tracker: incremental visual text analytics of news story development. Inf Vis 12(3–4):308–323CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lee R, Sumiya K (2010) Measuring geographical regularities of crowd behaviors for twitter-based geo-social event detection. In: Proceedings of the 2Nd ACM SIGSPATIAL international workshop on location based social networks, LBSN ’10, pp 1–10 Lee R, Sumiya K (2010) Measuring geographical regularities of crowd behaviors for twitter-based geo-social event detection. In: Proceedings of the 2Nd ACM SIGSPATIAL international workshop on location based social networks, LBSN ’10, pp 1–10
Zurück zum Zitat Lu Y, Kruger R, Thom D, Wang F, Koch S, Ertl T, Maciejewski R (2014) Integrating predictive analytics and social media. In: Proceedings of the visual analytics science and technology (VAST), 2014 IEEE conference on, pp 193–202 Lu Y, Kruger R, Thom D, Wang F, Koch S, Ertl T, Maciejewski R (2014) Integrating predictive analytics and social media. In: Proceedings of the visual analytics science and technology (VAST), 2014 IEEE conference on, pp 193–202
Zurück zum Zitat Luo D, Yang J, Krstajic M, Ribarsky W, Keim DA (2012) EventRiver: visually exploring text collections with temporal references. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 18(1):93–105CrossRef Luo D, Yang J, Krstajic M, Ribarsky W, Keim DA (2012) EventRiver: visually exploring text collections with temporal references. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 18(1):93–105CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat MacEachren AM, Jaiswal AR, Robinson AC, Pezanowski S, Savelyev A, Mitra P, Zhang X, Blanford J (2011) Senseplace2: geotwitter analytics support for situational awareness. In: IEEE VAST, IEEE Computer Society, pp 181–190 MacEachren AM, Jaiswal AR, Robinson AC, Pezanowski S, Savelyev A, Mitra P, Zhang X, Blanford J (2011) Senseplace2: geotwitter analytics support for situational awareness. In: IEEE VAST, IEEE Computer Society, pp 181–190
Zurück zum Zitat Maciejewski R, Hafen R, Rudolph S, Larew S, Mitchell M, Cleveland W, Ebert D (2011) Forecasting hotspots: a predictive analytics approach. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 17(4):440–453CrossRef Maciejewski R, Hafen R, Rudolph S, Larew S, Mitchell M, Cleveland W, Ebert D (2011) Forecasting hotspots: a predictive analytics approach. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 17(4):440–453CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Malik A, Maciejewski R, Towers S, McCullough S, Ebert D (2014) Proactive spatiotemporal resource allocation and predictive visual analytics for community policing and law enforcement. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 20(12):1863–1872CrossRef Malik A, Maciejewski R, Towers S, McCullough S, Ebert D (2014) Proactive spatiotemporal resource allocation and predictive visual analytics for community policing and law enforcement. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 20(12):1863–1872CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Meyer B, Bryan K, Santos Y, Kim B (2011) Breaking news detection and visualization through the geo-tagged twitter network. In: Proceedings of the ISCA 26th international conference on computers and their applications, pp 84–89 Meyer B, Bryan K, Santos Y, Kim B (2011) Breaking news detection and visualization through the geo-tagged twitter network. In: Proceedings of the ISCA 26th international conference on computers and their applications, pp 84–89
Zurück zum Zitat Porter MF (1997) An algorithm for suffix stripping. In: Jones KS, Willett P (eds), Readings in information retrieval, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., pp 313–316 Porter MF (1997) An algorithm for suffix stripping. In: Jones KS, Willett P (eds), Readings in information retrieval, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., pp 313–316
Zurück zum Zitat Sakaki T, Okazaki M, Matsuo Y (2010) Earthquake shakes twitter users: real-time event detection by social sensors. In: Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World Wide Web, WWW ’10, pp 851–860 Sakaki T, Okazaki M, Matsuo Y (2010) Earthquake shakes twitter users: real-time event detection by social sensors. In: Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World Wide Web, WWW ’10, pp 851–860
Zurück zum Zitat Sang ETK, Bos J (2012) Predicting the 2011 dutch senate election results with twitter. In: Proceedings of the workshop on semantic analysis in social media, pp 53–60 Sang ETK, Bos J (2012) Predicting the 2011 dutch senate election results with twitter. In: Proceedings of the workshop on semantic analysis in social media, pp 53–60
Zurück zum Zitat Sayyadi H, Hurst M, Maykov A (2009) Event detection and tracking in social streams. In: Proceedings of the international conference on weblogs and social media Sayyadi H, Hurst M, Maykov A (2009) Event detection and tracking in social streams. In: Proceedings of the international conference on weblogs and social media
Zurück zum Zitat Takahashi T, Tomioka R, Yamanishi K (2014) Discovering emerging topics in social streams via link-anomaly detection. IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 26(1):120–130CrossRef Takahashi T, Tomioka R, Yamanishi K (2014) Discovering emerging topics in social streams via link-anomaly detection. IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 26(1):120–130CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Terpstra T, de Vries A, Paradies G, Stronkman R (2012) Towards a realtime twitter analysis during crises for operational crisis management. In: Proceeding of 9th international conference on information systems for crisis response and management (ISCRAM) Terpstra T, de Vries A, Paradies G, Stronkman R (2012) Towards a realtime twitter analysis during crises for operational crisis management. In: Proceeding of 9th international conference on information systems for crisis response and management (ISCRAM)
Zurück zum Zitat Thom D, Bosch H, Koch S, Wörner M, Ertl T (2012) Spatiotemporal anomaly detection through visual analysis of geolocated twitter messages. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2012 IEEE, pp 41–48 Thom D, Bosch H, Koch S, Wörner M, Ertl T (2012) Spatiotemporal anomaly detection through visual analysis of geolocated twitter messages. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2012 IEEE, pp 41–48
Zurück zum Zitat Thom D, Bosch H, Krüger R, Ertl T (2014) Using large scale aggregated knowledge for social media location discovery. In: System Sciences (HICSS), 2014 47th Hawaii international conference on, pp 1464–1473 Thom D, Bosch H, Krüger R, Ertl T (2014) Using large scale aggregated knowledge for social media location discovery. In: System Sciences (HICSS), 2014 47th Hawaii international conference on, pp 1464–1473
Zurück zum Zitat Thom D, Krüger R, Ertl T, Bechstedt U, Platz A, Zisgen J, Volland B (2015) Can twitter really save your life? A case study of visual social media analytics for situation awareness. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2015 IEEE, pp 183–190 Thom D, Krüger R, Ertl T, Bechstedt U, Platz A, Zisgen J, Volland B (2015) Can twitter really save your life? A case study of visual social media analytics for situation awareness. In: Pacific visualization symposium (PacificVis), 2015 IEEE, pp 183–190
Zurück zum Zitat Tumasjan A, Sprenger T, Sandner P, Welpe I (2010) Predicting elections with twitter: what 140 characters reveal about political sentiment. In: Proceedings of the 4th international AAAI conference on weblogs and social media, pp 178–185 Tumasjan A, Sprenger T, Sandner P, Welpe I (2010) Predicting elections with twitter: what 140 characters reveal about political sentiment. In: Proceedings of the 4th international AAAI conference on weblogs and social media, pp 178–185
Zurück zum Zitat Vieweg S, Hughes AL, Starbird K, Palen L (2010) Microblogging during two natural hazards events: What twitter may contribute to situational awareness. In: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems, CHI ’10, New York, NY, pp 1079–1088 Vieweg S, Hughes AL, Starbird K, Palen L (2010) Microblogging during two natural hazards events: What twitter may contribute to situational awareness. In: Proceedings of the SIGCHI conference on human factors in computing systems, CHI ’10, New York, NY, pp 1079–1088
Zurück zum Zitat Wanner F, Stoffel A, Jäckle D, Kwon BC, Weiler A, Keim DA (2014) State-of-the-art report of visual analysis for event detection in text data streams. In: Borgo R, Maciejewski R, Viola I (eds) EuroVis - STARs. Swansea, London, pp 125–139 Wanner F, Stoffel A, Jäckle D, Kwon BC, Weiler A, Keim DA (2014) State-of-the-art report of visual analysis for event detection in text data streams. In: Borgo R, Maciejewski R, Viola I (eds) EuroVis - STARs. Swansea, London, pp 125–139
Zurück zum Zitat Watanabe K, Ochi M, Okabe M, Onai R (2011) Jasmine: a real-time local-event detection system based on geolocation information propagated to microblogs. In: Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on information and knowledge management, pp 2541–2544 Watanabe K, Ochi M, Okabe M, Onai R (2011) Jasmine: a real-time local-event detection system based on geolocation information propagated to microblogs. In: Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on information and knowledge management, pp 2541–2544
Zurück zum Zitat Wu Y, Wei F, Liu S, Au N, Cui W, Zhou H, Qu H (2010) Opinionseer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 16(6):1109–1118CrossRef Wu Y, Wei F, Liu S, Au N, Cui W, Zhou H, Qu H (2010) Opinionseer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback. IEEE Trans Vis Comput Graph 16(6):1109–1118CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Yang J, Leskovec J (2011) Patterns of temporal variation in online media. In: Proceedings of the 4th ACM international conference on web search and data mining, pp 177–186 Yang J, Leskovec J (2011) Patterns of temporal variation in online media. In: Proceedings of the 4th ACM international conference on web search and data mining, pp 177–186
Zurück zum Zitat Yeon H, Jang Y (2015) Predictive visual analytics using topic composition. In: Proceedings of the 8th international symposium on visual information communication and interaction, pp 1–8 Yeon H, Jang Y (2015) Predictive visual analytics using topic composition. In: Proceedings of the 8th international symposium on visual information communication and interaction, pp 1–8
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao J, Cao N, Wen Z, Song Y, Lin Y-R, Collins C (2014) Fluxflow: visual analysis of anomalous information spreading on social media. Vis Comput Graph IEEE Trans 20(12):1773–1782CrossRef Zhao J, Cao N, Wen Z, Song Y, Lin Y-R, Collins C (2014) Fluxflow: visual analysis of anomalous information spreading on social media. Vis Comput Graph IEEE Trans 20(12):1773–1782CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao Q, Mitra P (2007) Event detection and visualization for social text streams. In: International conference on weblogs and social media (ICWSM’2007), Boulder, Colorado Zhao Q, Mitra P (2007) Event detection and visualization for social text streams. In: International conference on weblogs and social media (ICWSM’2007), Boulder, Colorado
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao WX, Jiang J, Weng J, He J, Lim E-P, Yan H, Li X (2011) Comparing twitter and traditional media using topic models. In Proceedings of the 33rd European conference on advances in information retrieval, pp 338–349 Zhao WX, Jiang J, Weng J, He J, Lim E-P, Yan H, Li X (2011) Comparing twitter and traditional media using topic models. In Proceedings of the 33rd European conference on advances in information retrieval, pp 338–349
Metadaten
Titel
Predictive visual analytics of event evolution for user-created context
verfasst von
Hanbyul Yeon
Seokyeon Kim
Yun Jang
Publikationsdatum
10.06.2016
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Journal of Visualization / Ausgabe 3/2017
Print ISSN: 1343-8875
Elektronische ISSN: 1875-8975
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12650-016-0373-7

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3/2017

Journal of Visualization 3/2017 Zur Ausgabe