Microsimulation of Metropolitan Employment Deconcentration

Employment deconcentration has become a major issue on the policy and planning agenda in many metropolitan areas throughout the western world. In recent years, growing evidence indicates that in many developed countries, the deconcentration of employment - particularly of retail centres and offices - has become a key planning issue. This chapter uses the

UrbanSim

forecasting and simulation model in order to investigate some of the projected changes in land use, land value and sociodemographic characteristics of metropolitan areas undergoing employment deconcentration. The process of model application in the Tel Aviv metropolitan context is described. Two land-use scenarios of very different scales are simulated: a macro-level scenario relating to the imposition of an ‘urban growth boundary’ and a micro-level scenario simulating the effects of a shopping mall construction in different parts of the metropolitan area. The results are discussed in terms of the potential and constraints of microsimulation for analyzing metropolitan growth processes.