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2007 | Buch

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Modelling Land-Use Change

Progress and Applications

herausgegeben von: Eric Koomen, John Stillwell, Aldrik Bakema, Henk J. Scholten

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

Buchreihe : GeoJournal Library

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

Models of land-use change incorporate a vast amount of knowledge from a wide range of disciplines. Geography contributes to the understanding of land-use change whilst demography and economics help explain underlying trends. This book offers a cross-sectional overview of current research progress that allows the construction of successful land-use models. The contributions range from methodology and calibration to actual applications in studies of recent policy implementation and evaluation. The contributors originate from academic and applied research institutes around the world and thus offer an interesting mix of theory and practice in different case study contexts. In summary, land-use change simulation modelling is a relatively new and dynamic field of study and this book provides a full overview of the topic, a wide range of applications (both geographically and thematically), a mix of theory and practice, a synthesis of recent research progress, and educational material for students and teachers.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Modelling land-use change

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Modelling Land-Use Change

Theories and methods

Abstract

This first chapter explains some of the basic theoretical ideas, concepts and methodologies that underpin the modelling of land-use change. It represents an overview of the types of approaches that have been adopted by researchers hitherto. It also provides a rationale for the structure of the book and a synopsis of the contents that follow.

E. Koomen, J. Stillwell

Analysis of land-use trends and their driving forces

Frontmatter

Chapter 2. Land-Use Change at Cadastral Parcel Level in Albania

An object-oriented geo-database approach to analyse spatial developments in a period of transition (1991-2003)

Abstract

A case study in Albania is presented based on the EU Phare Land Use Policy II project results where GIS-oriented instruments and innovative methodologies were implemented to support decision making for land-use policy and planning. The developed Land-Use Information System for Albania allows the logical and functional hierarchical arrangement of land uses and data harmonisation with other land-use description systems. It is linked to the object-oriented Land-Use Change Analyses methodology that groups changes into conversions and modifications. The preferred change patterns indicate that land users take rational decisions when changing land use, even in the absence of any regulating plan, as is the case in post-communist Albania.

L.J.M. Jansen, G. Carrai, M. Petri

Chapter 3. Driving Forces of Landscape Change in The Urbanizing Limmat Valley, Switzerland

Abstract

This research aims to identify the driving forces that changed the Limmat Valley west of Zurich from a traditional agricultural valley in 1930 to a suburban region of the city of Zurich in 2000. The landscape changes are quantified based on the comparison of historical maps from 1930, 1956, 1976 and 2000. All individual changes, relating to new or disappeared landscape elements, were linked to a set of one to fourteen critical driving forces. Such an analytical and systematic study of driving forces, and specifically the clear link between changes of landscape elements and specific sets of driving forces and jurisdictional levels, is essential for the development of innovative land-use change models.

A.M. Hersperger, M. Bürgi

Chapter 4. Landscape Changes in the Israeli Carmel Area

An application of matrix land-use analysis

Abstract

The spatial redistribution of land uses can be measured by conventional remote sensing methods in the form of matrices of land-use redistributions within a given set of regions in a given time period. Two new methods of analysis of such land-use redistribution matrices are proposed: the ‘superposition principle’ and the ‘minimum information’ approach. For an empirical validation of these new methods, a settlement in the vicinity of the Haifa Carmel area is chosen. For different time intervals, the main trends in land-use redistribution are identified together with their minimum information artificial landscapes.

M. Sonis, M. Shoshany, N. Goldshlager

Chapter 5. New Land-Use Development Processes Associated with the Acceleration of Urbanisation in China

Case study of the Pearl River Delta metropolis

Abstract

In recent years, new processes for land-use development have appeared that are not entirely in accord with state law in China, especially in areas of rapid urbanisation. This situation results from conflicts between land use and the rapid development of society and economy in these areas. Although urbanisation contradicts the national law of land use in various ways, it reveals the irrationality of the current land institutions, which have to be reformed in order to achieve urban sustainability. After summarizing and analysing some typical processes of land-use development for the rapidly urbanizing areas in the Pearl River Delta metropolis, this chapter presents some conclusions and suggestions for land institution reform in the future.

Z.-G. Wu, S.-H. Zhou, C.-C. Feng

Explanatory models of land-use change

Frontmatter

Chapter 6. Driving Forces of Land-Use Change in a Cultural Landscape of Spain

A preliminary assessment of the human-mediated influences

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to examine the processes of change in land cover and land use over the last 44 years, at regional scale, in a traditional, rural south-eastern Spanish catchment. Land use has changed dramatically over recent decades throughout the Mediterranean. Much of this change has been driven by shifts in agricultural and socioeconomic policy. Analysis of aerial photography for the Marina Baixa catchment has revealed a significant decline in traditional agriculture and conversion to forestry or intensive croplands. The consequences of economic globalisation are reflected here in a shift from traditional to intensive agriculture and in human migration from rural to urban areas, as well as in the development of tourism. Land-use changes are correlated with socioeconomic structural forces in order to demonstrate how these changes affect the basic resources of the area and to provide a clearer understanding of possible future trends.

J. Peña, A. Bonet, J. Bellot, J.R. Sánchez, D. Eisenhuth, S. Hallett, A. Aledo

Chapter 7. Empirically Derived Probability Maps to Downscale Aggregated Land-Use Data

Abstract

Land-use simulation results are often provided at spatial resolutions that are too coarse to establish links with local or regional studies that, for example, deal with the physical or ecological impacts of land-use change. This chapter aims to use novel spatial statistical techniques to derive representations of land-use patterns at a resolution of 250 metres based on aggregate land-use change simulations. The proposed statistical downscaling method combines multinomial autologistic regression and an iterative procedure using Bayes’ theorem. Based on these methods, a set of probability maps of land-use presence is developed at two time steps. The method’s low data requirements (only land-use datasets are used) make it easily replicable, allowing application over a wide geographic area. The potential of the method to downscale land-use change scenarios is shown for a small area in Belgium using the CORINE land-cover dataset.

N. Dendoncker, P. Bogaert, M. Rounsevell

Chapter 8. A Spatial Interaction Model for Agricultural Uses

An application to understand the historic land-use evolution of a small island

Abstract

A spatial interaction model is constructed to simulate the historic agricultural land-use evolution of Corvo Island, Azores. Basic ingredients for the model are the local attractiveness for the different agricultural land-use types and historic population counts from 1590 to 2001. The spatial interaction model is then used to distribute employment, residents and respective surface areas, taking into account local agricultural attractiveness and distances between the different zones. These are in turn used to generate past land-use patterns.

J. Gonçalves, T. Dentinho

Optimisation modelling

Frontmatter

Chapter 9. Spatial Optimisation in Land-Use Allocation Problems

Abstract

In densely populated areas, space for development is confined, making spatial planning essential to reconcile the interests of all stakeholders. In the process of policymaking, possible future land-use scenarios are often very valuable as a reference point, but the optimal configuration in terms of costs and effects might provide even more valuable inputs when decisions have to be taken. Tools for exploring optimal land-use configurations are therefore of great interest to policymakers. With these tools, plans can be evaluated and adjusted. Spatial optimisation is a powerful method to explore the potentials of a given area to improve the spatial coherence of land-use functions. In the Netherlands, there are many different planning issues in which multi-objective spatial optimisation can play an important role. This chapter describes two case studies that apply the genetic algorithm approach.

W. Loonen, P. Heuberger, M. Kuijpers-Linde

Chapter 10. Sustainable Land-Use and Water Management in Mountain Ecosystems

A case study of a watershed in the Indian Himalaya

Abstract

The chapter examines the problem of choice of land use, energy input and technology that ensures economic viability and ecological sustainability in the Himalayan mountains. As the nature of the problem depends upon the local characteristics of the ecosystem, we propose to develop a model at the watershed level. This work develops a quantitative optimisation framework of net revenue maximisation using linear programming for structuring and articulating the problem of choice. The constraint of water availability has been taken into account to show how it drives the choice of technology and land use. The aims are to identify cost effective technologies, optimal land-use patterns and input combinations and to prescribe policies for adopting these technologies for rural situations with similar eco-regional and agro-climatic conditions.

S.K. Mandal

Chapter 11. Geneticland: Modelling Land-Use Change Using Evolutionary Algorithms

Abstract

Future land-use configurations provide valuable knowledge for policy makers and economic agents, especially under expected environmental changes such as decreasing rainfall or increasing temperatures. This chapter proposes an optimisation approach for modelling land-use change in which landscapes (land uses) are generated through the use of an evolutionary algorithm called GeneticLand. It is designed for a multiobjective function that aims at the minimisation of soil erosion and the maximisation of carbon sequestration, under a set of local restrictions. GeneticLand has been applied to a Mediterranean landscape, located in southern Portugal. The algorithm design and the results obtained show the feasibility of the generated landscapes, the appropriateness of the evolutionary methods to model land-use changes and the spatial characteristics of the landscape solutions that emerge when physical drivers have a major influence on their evolution.

J. Seixas, J.P. Nunes, P. Lourenço, J. Corte-Real

Incorporation of new modelling approaches

Frontmatter

Chapter 12. Microsimulation of Metropolitan Employment Deconcentration

Application of the UrbanSim model in the Tel Aviv region

Abstract

Employment deconcentration has become a major issue on the policy and planning agenda in many metropolitan areas throughout the western world. In recent years, growing evidence indicates that in many developed countries, the deconcentration of employment - particularly of retail centres and offices - has become a key planning issue. This chapter uses the UrbanSim forecasting and simulation model in order to investigate some of the projected changes in land use, land value and sociodemographic characteristics of metropolitan areas undergoing employment deconcentration. The process of model application in the Tel Aviv metropolitan context is described. Two land-use scenarios of very different scales are simulated: a macro-level scenario relating to the imposition of an ‘urban growth boundary’ and a micro-level scenario simulating the effects of a shopping mall construction in different parts of the metropolitan area. The results are discussed in terms of the potential and constraints of microsimulation for analyzing metropolitan growth processes.

D. Felsenstein, E. Ashbel, A. Ben-Nun

Chapter 13. Simulation of Polycentric Urban Growth Dynamics Through Agents

Modle concept,application,result and validation

Abstract

In contrast to typical urban regions dominated by a core city located in the region’s centre and a suburban fringe, the Austrian Rhine Valley, selected as the study area, can be described as a peri-urban region with some medium-sized centres and various rural villages, all developing in different ways. Thus, a simulation approach has to be applied that allows for different settlement growth and densification velocities in order to reach model results which come close to real land-use transitions. The urban growth model presented here is based on a multi-agent system which simulates location decisions of households and company start-ups within a cellular landscape driven by regional and local attractiveness patterns. The model has been applied to generate control runs for the past decade and validated by comparing its results with observed land-use changes at municipality level and at raster cell level. Scenario runs for the future have been conducted assuming suspended zoning regulations leading to a different actors’ behaviour.

W. Loibl, T. Tötzer, M. Köstl, K. Steinnocher

Chapter 14. Puma: Multi-Agent Modelling of Urban Systems

Abstract

It is increasingly recognised that land-use change processes are the outcome of decisions made by individual actors, such as land owners, authorities, firms and households. In order to improve the theoretical basis of land-use modelling and to represent land-use changes in a behaviourally more realistic way, we are developing PUMA (Predicting Urbanisation with Multi-Agents), a fully fledged multi-agent system of urban processes. PUMAwill consist of various modules, representing the behaviours of specific actors. The land conversion module describes farmers’, authorities’, investors’ and developers’ decisions to sell or buy land and develop it into other uses. The households module describes households’ housing and work careers in relation to life cycle events (marriage, child birth, ageing, job change et cetera.) and also their daily activity patterns. The firms module includes firms’ demography and their related demand for production facilities leading to (re)location processes. The chapter describes the conceptual model, the first phase of operationalisation and initial results.

D. Ettema, K. de Jong, H. Timmermans, A. Bakema

Chapter 15. Integrating Cellular Automata and Regional Dynamics Using Gis

The Dynamic Settlement Simulation Model (DSSM)

Abstract

The evolution of cities at an urban-regional scale reflects complex relationships between ways in which urban structure develops in response to local decisions involving land development which is set within the more aggregate pattern of urban and regional structure. There is a mutual interaction between physical development and the urban hierarchy which is not often accounted for in the new wave of cellular models that have appeared in the last ten years. This chapter describes an implementation of a simulation model that is based on integrating these local and regional dynamics. We call it the Dynamic Settlement Simulation Model (DSSM)and we develop the integration using two different cell-based modelling techniques: cellular automata (CA) and raster GIS. The model is implemented using an object-oriented programming approach, and after we describe its rudiments, albeit briefly, we show its application to real data from Chiang Mai, a major city in Thailand. Finally, this chapter indicates how the model can be used as a part of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) generating predictive outcomes that represent possibilities for implementing predictive and scenario-based applications in urban and regional planning and related fields.

K. Piyathamrongchai, M. Batty

Operational land-use simulation models

Frontmatter

Chapter 16. A Land-Use Modelling System for Environmental Impact Assessment

Recent applications of the LUMOS toolbox

Abstract

Changes in land use may have important implications for nature, environment and water management. Thus, insights into future land-use patterns are needed for explorations of the future state of the environment and subsequent policy making. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, in co-operation with other partners, funded a consortium with the aim to invest in further development of the Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS). This system contains a cellular automata-oriented model and an economics-based model. Both models are discussed here as well as a number of their applications. This chapter ends with an evaluation of these applications and the model performance to date.

J. Borsboom-van Beurden, A. Bakema, H. Tijbosch

Chapter 17. The Moland Modelling Framework for Urban and Regional Land-Use Dynamics

Abstract

The Joint Research Centre (JRC) has implemented the following elements for a growing and representative sample of cities and urbanised regions: (1) high resolution spatial databases of land-use change over approximately 40 years, (2) urban sustainability indicators, and (3) a modelling framework enabling the implementation of hybrid land-use models representing urban regions ranging from the single, average-sized city to complex hierarchies of cities. The core of the latter framework enables the configuration of dynamic spatial models operating at a macro- and a micro-geographical scale. Both levels are intimately linked and permit an integral and detailed representation of the evolving spatial system. The models are complemented with: a series of spatial indicators, tools for interactive design, analysis and evaluation of policy measures or scenarios and a set of routines enabling the semi-automatic calibration and validation of the applications developed.

G. Engelen, C. Lavalle, J.I. Barredo, M. van der Meulen, R. White

Chapter 18. Dynamic Simulation of Land-Use Change Trajectories with the Clue-S Model

Abstract

The CLUE(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model is one of the most widely applied models with approximately 30 applications in different regions of the globe focusing on a wide range of land-use change trajectories including agricultural intensification, deforestation, land abandonment and urbanisation. The model is a tool to better understand the processes that determine changes in the spatial pattern of land use and to explore possible future changes in land use at the regional scale. This chapter describes the functioning of the model and illustrates the potential of the model for scenario-based simulation of land-use change trajectories with two case studies, one which is a rural landscape in the eastern part of the Netherlands and one which is a strongly urbanized watershed surrounding Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia.

P.H. Verburg, K.P. Overmars

Land-use simulation for policy analysis

Frontmatter

Chapter 19. Beyond Growth? Decline of The Urban Fabric In Eastern Germany

A spatially explicit modelling approach to predict residential vacancy and demolition priorities

Abstract

Urban growth has been replaced by decline of the urban fabric in many parts of Europe. Reasons for this shrinkage are to be found in processes of demographic change and migration in city regions. This chapter presents relevant indicators and a rule-based modelling approach to residential change and building demolition in Eastern Germany. The first part will focus on the research objectives and briefly discusses the urban decline phenomenon and the need for a new modelling approach in order to understand the current shifts in urban development. Besides this, relevant predictor variables for identifying spatial shrinkage and residential vacancy are discussed. Finally, their integration into a GIS-based spatially explicit model completes the chapter.

D. Haase, A. Holzkämper, R. Seppelt

Chapter 20. Land-Use Simulation For Water Management

Application of the Land Use Scanner in two large-scale scenario studies

Abstract

Land use is one of the major components influencing local hydrological characteristics. Future land use is thus important in studies that focus on the upcoming challenges for water management. This chapter describes two applications of the Land Use Scannermodel on a national or larger scale, in which the scenario method is used to simulate future land-use patterns.

J. Dekkers, E. Koomen

Chapter 21. Gis-Based Modelling of Land-Use Systems

EU Common Agricultural Policy reform and its impact on agricultural land use and plant species richness

Abstract

The chapter presents the land-use model ProLand and the fuzzy expert system UPAL. ProLand models the regional distribution of agricultural land-use systems whilst UPAL predicts the species richness of vascular plants. Linking land-use and ecological models allows us to assess socioeconomic and ecological effects of policy measures by identifying interactions and estimating potential trade-offs. The effects of the Common Agricultural Policy reform on land use, key economic figures, and plant species richness are modelled for a study area in Hesse, Germany. Results indicate that the reform positively influences ground rent and species richness.

P. Sheridan, J.O. Schroers, E. Rommelfanger

Backmatter

Titel: Modelling Land-Use Change
herausgegeben von: Eric Koomen
John Stillwell
Aldrik Bakema
Henk J. Scholten
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN: 978-1-4020-5648-2
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-6484-5
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5648-2