Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Service Business 3/2008

01.09.2008 | Original Paper

Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan

verfasst von: Luiz Moutinho, K.-H. Huarng, Tiffany H.-K. Yu, C.-Y. Chen

Erschienen in: Service Business | Ausgabe 3/2008

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The study of tourism demand is attracting more and more attention. Hence, it is important to understand the variables that affect tourism demand and to forecast the demand. Many studies have been conducted to analyze the demands in various countries. Recently, China has been expected to become one of the largest originators of outbound tourists in the world. Hence, it is interesting to explore what the variables are that affect the Mainland Chinese arrivals to Taiwan and to forecast its corresponding tourism demand. This study applies neural networks to select proper models, and then to forecast the demand.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Bergstrand JH (1991) Structural determinants of real exchange rates and national price levels: some empirical evidence. Am Econ Rev 81:325–334 Bergstrand JH (1991) Structural determinants of real exchange rates and national price levels: some empirical evidence. Am Econ Rev 81:325–334
Zurück zum Zitat Blake A, Durbarry R, Eugenio-Martin JL, Gooroochurn N, Hay B, Lennon J, Sinclair MT, Sugiyarto G, Yeoman I (2006) Integrating forecasting and CGE models: the case of tourism in Scotland. Tourism Manage 27:292–305CrossRef Blake A, Durbarry R, Eugenio-Martin JL, Gooroochurn N, Hay B, Lennon J, Sinclair MT, Sugiyarto G, Yeoman I (2006) Integrating forecasting and CGE models: the case of tourism in Scotland. Tourism Manage 27:292–305CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cho V (2003) A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting. Tourism Manage 24:323–330CrossRef Cho V (2003) A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting. Tourism Manage 24:323–330CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Clague C (1986) Determinants of national price level: some empire results. Rev Economics and Statics 68:320–323CrossRef Clague C (1986) Determinants of national price level: some empire results. Rev Economics and Statics 68:320–323CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat De Mello, Pack A, Sinclair MT (2002) A system of equations models of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries. Taylor and Francis J 34:509–521 De Mello, Pack A, Sinclair MT (2002) A system of equations models of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries. Taylor and Francis J 34:509–521
Zurück zum Zitat Funahashi K (1989) On the approximate realization of continuous mappings by neural networks. Neural Netw 2:183–192CrossRef Funahashi K (1989) On the approximate realization of continuous mappings by neural networks. Neural Netw 2:183–192CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hao J, Var T, Chon J (2003) A forecasting model of tourist arrivals from major markets to Thailand. Tourism Anal 8(1):33–45CrossRef Hao J, Var T, Chon J (2003) A forecasting model of tourist arrivals from major markets to Thailand. Tourism Anal 8(1):33–45CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hong Kong Tourism Board (2005) A statistical review of Hong Kong tourism 2004 Hong Kong Tourism Board (2005) A statistical review of Hong Kong tourism 2004
Zurück zum Zitat Hornik K (1993) Some new results on neural network approximation. Neural Netw 6:1069–1072CrossRef Hornik K (1993) Some new results on neural network approximation. Neural Netw 6:1069–1072CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Huarng KH, Moutinho L, Yu THK (2007) An advanced approach to forecasting tourism demand in Taiwan. J Travel Tourism Mark 21(4):15–24CrossRef Huarng KH, Moutinho L, Yu THK (2007) An advanced approach to forecasting tourism demand in Taiwan. J Travel Tourism Mark 21(4):15–24CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Indro DC, Jiang CX, Patuwo BE, Zhang GP (1999). Predicting mutual fund performance using artificial neural networks. Omega Int J Manage Sci 27:373–380CrossRef Indro DC, Jiang CX, Patuwo BE, Zhang GP (1999). Predicting mutual fund performance using artificial neural networks. Omega Int J Manage Sci 27:373–380CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1983) Toward an explanation of national price level (Princeton Studies in International Finance No. 52), Princeton University, Princeton, NJ Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1983) Toward an explanation of national price level (Princeton Studies in International Finance No. 52), Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
Zurück zum Zitat Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1987) The assessment of national price levels. In: Arndt SW, Richardson JD (eds) Real-financial linkages among open economies. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp 97–134 Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1987) The assessment of national price levels. In: Arndt SW, Richardson JD (eds) Real-financial linkages among open economies. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp 97–134
Zurück zum Zitat Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1988) National price levels and the prices of tradeables and nontradeables. Am Econ Rev 78:474–478 Kravis IB, Lipsey RE (1988) National price levels and the prices of tradeables and nontradeables. Am Econ Rev 78:474–478
Zurück zum Zitat Kulendran N, Witt SF (2003) Leading indicator tourism forecasts. Tourism Manage 24:503–510CrossRef Kulendran N, Witt SF (2003) Leading indicator tourism forecasts. Tourism Manage 24:503–510CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Law R (2000) Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Manage 21:331–340CrossRef Law R (2000) Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Manage 21:331–340CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Law R, Au N (1999) A neural network model to forecast Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong. Tourism Manage 20(1):89–97CrossRef Law R, Au N (1999) A neural network model to forecast Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong. Tourism Manage 20(1):89–97CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lindberg K, Aylward B (1999) Price responsiveness in the developing country nature tourism context: review and Costa Rican case study. J Leisure Res 31:281–299 Lindberg K, Aylward B (1999) Price responsiveness in the developing country nature tourism context: review and Costa Rican case study. J Leisure Res 31:281–299
Zurück zum Zitat Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flow of British tourists. Clim Change 49(1–2):193–208CrossRef Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flow of British tourists. Clim Change 49(1–2):193–208CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Muzaffer U (2004) Advancement in computing: implications for tourism and hospitality. Scand J Hosp Tour 4(3):208–224CrossRef Muzaffer U (2004) Advancement in computing: implications for tourism and hospitality. Scand J Hosp Tour 4(3):208–224CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Oh C-O, Morzuch BJ (2005) Evaluating time-series models to forecast the demand for tourism in Singapore: comparing within-sample and postsample result. J Travel Res 43:404–413CrossRef Oh C-O, Morzuch BJ (2005) Evaluating time-series models to forecast the demand for tourism in Singapore: comparing within-sample and postsample result. J Travel Res 43:404–413CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pai PF, Hong WC, Hong PT, Chen CT (2006) The application of support vector machines to forecast tourist arrivals in Barbados: an empirical study. Int J Manage 23:375–385 Pai PF, Hong WC, Hong PT, Chen CT (2006) The application of support vector machines to forecast tourist arrivals in Barbados: an empirical study. Int J Manage 23:375–385
Zurück zum Zitat Papatheodorou A (1999) The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region. Appl Econ 31:619–630CrossRef Papatheodorou A (1999) The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region. Appl Econ 31:619–630CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Samuel SK, Yingzhi G, Jerome A (2005) Preference and positioning analyses of overseas destinations by Mainland Chinese outbound pleasure tourists. J Travel Res 44:212–220CrossRef Samuel SK, Yingzhi G, Jerome A (2005) Preference and positioning analyses of overseas destinations by Mainland Chinese outbound pleasure tourists. J Travel Res 44:212–220CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Smeral E (2003) A structural view of tourism growth. Tourism Econ 9(1):77–93 Smeral E (2003) A structural view of tourism growth. Tourism Econ 9(1):77–93
Zurück zum Zitat Smith V, Kopp R (1980) The spatial limits of the travel cost recreational demand model. Land Econ 56:64–71CrossRef Smith V, Kopp R (1980) The spatial limits of the travel cost recreational demand model. Land Econ 56:64–71CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Smith KA, Gupta JND (2002) Neural networks in business: techniques and applications. Idea Hornik Group Publishing, Hershey, PA Smith KA, Gupta JND (2002) Neural networks in business: techniques and applications. Idea Hornik Group Publishing, Hershey, PA
Zurück zum Zitat Song H, Witt SF (2003) Tourism forecasting: the general-to-specific approach. J Travel Res 42:65–74CrossRef Song H, Witt SF (2003) Tourism forecasting: the general-to-specific approach. J Travel Res 42:65–74CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Song H, Witt SF (2006) Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau. Tourism Manage 27:214–224CrossRef Song H, Witt SF (2006) Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau. Tourism Manage 27:214–224CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Song H, Wong KKF (2003) Tourism demand modeling: a time-varying parameter approach. J Travel Res 42(1):57–64CrossRef Song H, Wong KKF (2003) Tourism demand modeling: a time-varying parameter approach. J Travel Res 42(1):57–64CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Song H, Witt SF, Jensen TC (2003) Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models. Int J Forecast 19:123–141CrossRef Song H, Witt SF, Jensen TC (2003) Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models. Int J Forecast 19:123–141CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wasserman PD (1989) Neural computing: theory and practice. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York Wasserman PD (1989) Neural computing: theory and practice. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Widrow B, Rumelhart DE, Lehr MA (1994) Neural networks: applications in industry, business and science. Commun ACM 37(3):93–105CrossRef Widrow B, Rumelhart DE, Lehr MA (1994) Neural networks: applications in industry, business and science. Commun ACM 37(3):93–105CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wong KKF, Song H, Chon KS (2006) Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Manage 27:773–780CrossRef Wong KKF, Song H, Chon KS (2006) Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Manage 27:773–780CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat World Tourism Organization (1999) Tourism: 2020 vision-executive summary. World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain World Tourism Organization (1999) Tourism: 2020 vision-executive summary. World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain
Zurück zum Zitat Zhang G, Patuwo BE, Hu MY (1998) Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art. Int J Forecast 14:35–62CrossRef Zhang G, Patuwo BE, Hu MY (1998) Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art. Int J Forecast 14:35–62CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan
verfasst von
Luiz Moutinho
K.-H. Huarng
Tiffany H.-K. Yu
C.-Y. Chen
Publikationsdatum
01.09.2008
Verlag
Springer-Verlag
Erschienen in
Service Business / Ausgabe 3/2008
Print ISSN: 1862-8516
Elektronische ISSN: 1862-8508
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11628-008-0037-3

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 3/2008

Service Business 3/2008 Zur Ausgabe