Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Information Systems and e-Business Management 1/2006

01.01.2006 | Original Article

Modeling online service discontinuation with nonparametric agents

verfasst von: Steven Walczak, Madhavan Parthasarathy

Erschienen in: Information Systems and e-Business Management | Ausgabe 1/2006

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The internet and world wide web are an increasingly important resource, both as a market and as an information source, to both individual users and business entities. An estimated 120 million active web users exist in the United States alone. Access to these electronic marketplaces and information sources is accomplished through either a direct internet connection or through a service provider. Internet service providers (ISPs) enable internet and web access for most of these users either via dial-up modems (62.2 percent), or DSL connections (17 percent). Customers of ISPs frequently switch or discontinue service. The model selection perspective is used to extend previous work in this area through the development of a multi-agent system with neural network wrappers. The nonparametric (neural network) agents identify over 92 percent of those users that either stop or change service, which is a 15 percent increase over previous models.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Anhänge
Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Anglin LK (1989) Social and psychological variability in consumer communication networks. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE Anglin LK (1989) Social and psychological variability in consumer communication networks. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE
Zurück zum Zitat Arasu A, Garcia-Molina H (2003) Extracting structured data from Web pages. ACM SIGMOD Record (June):337–348 Arasu A, Garcia-Molina H (2003) Extracting structured data from Web pages. ACM SIGMOD Record (June):337–348
Zurück zum Zitat Arndt J (1967) Role of product related conversations in the diffusion of a new product. J Mark Res 4:291–295CrossRef Arndt J (1967) Role of product related conversations in the diffusion of a new product. J Mark Res 4:291–295CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bansal A, Kauffman RJ, Weitz RR (1993) Comparing the modeling performance of regression and neural networks as data quality varies: a business value approach. J Manage Inf Syst 10(1):11–32 Bansal A, Kauffman RJ, Weitz RR (1993) Comparing the modeling performance of regression and neural networks as data quality varies: a business value approach. J Manage Inf Syst 10(1):11–32
Zurück zum Zitat Barnard E, Wessels L (1992) Extrapolation and interpolation in neural network classifiers. IEEE Control Syst 12(5):50–53CrossRef Barnard E, Wessels L (1992) Extrapolation and interpolation in neural network classifiers. IEEE Control Syst 12(5):50–53CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bhattacherjee A (2001) An empirical analysis of the antecedents of electronic commerce service continuance. Decis Support Syst 32(2):201–214CrossRef Bhattacherjee A (2001) An empirical analysis of the antecedents of electronic commerce service continuance. Decis Support Syst 32(2):201–214CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Bigus JP, Bigus J (1998) Constructing intelligent agents with java. Wiley, New York Bigus JP, Bigus J (1998) Constructing intelligent agents with java. Wiley, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Bolton RN, Bronkhurst TM (1995) The relationship between customer complaints to the firm and subsequent exit behavior. Adv Consum Res 22:94–100 Bolton RN, Bronkhurst TM (1995) The relationship between customer complaints to the firm and subsequent exit behavior. Adv Consum Res 22:94–100
Zurück zum Zitat Bolton RN, Lemon KN (1999) A dynamic model of customers’ usage of services: usage as an antecedent and consequence of satisfaction. J Mark Res 36:171–186CrossRef Bolton RN, Lemon KN (1999) A dynamic model of customers’ usage of services: usage as an antecedent and consequence of satisfaction. J Mark Res 36:171–186CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Brenner W, Zarnekow R, Wittig H (1998) Intelligent software agents. Springer, Berlin Brenner W, Zarnekow R, Wittig H (1998) Intelligent software agents. Springer, Berlin
Zurück zum Zitat Carl J (1995) Online service users: loyal as alley cats?. Web Week 1(Nov.) Carl J (1995) Online service users: loyal as alley cats?. Web Week 1(Nov.)
Zurück zum Zitat Carpenter GA, Grossberg S, Markuzon N, Reynolds JH (1992) Fuzzy ARTMAP: A neural network architecture for incremental learning of analog multidimensional maps. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 3(5):698–712CrossRef Carpenter GA, Grossberg S, Markuzon N, Reynolds JH (1992) Fuzzy ARTMAP: A neural network architecture for incremental learning of analog multidimensional maps. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 3(5):698–712CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Carpenter GA, Grossberg S, Reynolds JH (1995) A fuzzy ARTMAP nonparametric probability estimator for nonstationary pattern recognition problems. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 6:1330–1336CrossRef Carpenter GA, Grossberg S, Reynolds JH (1995) A fuzzy ARTMAP nonparametric probability estimator for nonstationary pattern recognition problems. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 6:1330–1336CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Cheng C, Low B, Chan P, Motwani J (2001) improving the performance of neural networks in classification using fuzzy linear regression. Expert Syst Appl 20(2):201–206CrossRef Cheng C, Low B, Chan P, Motwani J (2001) improving the performance of neural networks in classification using fuzzy linear regression. Expert Syst Appl 20(2):201–206CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Coakley JR, Brown CE (1993) Artificial neural networks applied to ratio analysis in the analytical review process. Intell Syst Account Financ Manage 2(1):19–39 Coakley JR, Brown CE (1993) Artificial neural networks applied to ratio analysis in the analytical review process. Intell Syst Account Financ Manage 2(1):19–39
Zurück zum Zitat Conway DG, Koehler GJ (2000) Interface agents: caveat mercator in electronic commerce. Decis Support Syst 27(4):355–366CrossRef Conway DG, Koehler GJ (2000) Interface agents: caveat mercator in electronic commerce. Decis Support Syst 27(4):355–366CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Desai VS, Bharati R (1998) The efficacy of neural networks in predicting returns on stocks and bond indices. Decis Sci 29(2):527–544 Desai VS, Bharati R (1998) The efficacy of neural networks in predicting returns on stocks and bond indices. Decis Sci 29(2):527–544
Zurück zum Zitat Efron B (1982) The jackknife, the bootstrap and other resampling plans. Siam, Philadelphia, PA Efron B (1982) The jackknife, the bootstrap and other resampling plans. Siam, Philadelphia, PA
Zurück zum Zitat Etzioni O (1997) Moving up the information food chain: deploying softbots on the world wide web. AI Magazine 18(2):11–18 Etzioni O (1997) Moving up the information food chain: deploying softbots on the world wide web. AI Magazine 18(2):11–18
Zurück zum Zitat Fu L (1994) Neural networks in computer intelligence. McGraw-Hill, New York Fu L (1994) Neural networks in computer intelligence. McGraw-Hill, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Hertz J, Krogh A, Palmer R (1991) Introduction to the theory of neural computation. Addison-Wesley, Reading Hertz J, Krogh A, Palmer R (1991) Introduction to the theory of neural computation. Addison-Wesley, Reading
Zurück zum Zitat Heskett JL, Sasser Jr WE, Schlesinger LA (1997) The service profit chain. Free Press, New York Heskett JL, Sasser Jr WE, Schlesinger LA (1997) The service profit chain. Free Press, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Hess, TJ, Rees LP, Rakes TR (2000) Using autonomous software agents to create the next generation of decision support systems. Decis Sci 31(1):1–31CrossRef Hess, TJ, Rees LP, Rakes TR (2000) Using autonomous software agents to create the next generation of decision support systems. Decis Sci 31(1):1–31CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hornik K (1991) Approximation Capabilities of Multilayer Feedforward Networks. Neural Netw 4:251–257CrossRef Hornik K (1991) Approximation Capabilities of Multilayer Feedforward Networks. Neural Netw 4:251–257CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H (1989) multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw 2(5):359–366CrossRef Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H (1989) multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw 2(5):359–366CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hsinchun C, Yi-Ming C, Ramsey M, Yang CC (1998) An intelligent personal spider (agent) for dynamic Internet/Intranet searching. Decis Support Syst 23(1):41–58CrossRef Hsinchun C, Yi-Ming C, Ramsey M, Yang CC (1998) An intelligent personal spider (agent) for dynamic Internet/Intranet searching. Decis Support Syst 23(1):41–58CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hung MS, Hu YM, Shanker MS, Patuwo BE (1996) Estimating posterior probabilities in classification problems with neural networks. Int J Comput Intell Organizations 1(1):49–60 Hung MS, Hu YM, Shanker MS, Patuwo BE (1996) Estimating posterior probabilities in classification problems with neural networks. Int J Comput Intell Organizations 1(1):49–60
Zurück zum Zitat Jacobs RA, Jordan MI, Nowlan SJ, Hinton GE (1991) Adaptive mixtures of local experts. Neural Comput 3:79–87 Jacobs RA, Jordan MI, Nowlan SJ, Hinton GE (1991) Adaptive mixtures of local experts. Neural Comput 3:79–87
Zurück zum Zitat Kiel GC, Layton RA (1981) Dimensions of consumer information seeking behavior. J Mark Res 18:233–239CrossRef Kiel GC, Layton RA (1981) Dimensions of consumer information seeking behavior. J Mark Res 18:233–239CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kingsley P, Anderson T (1998) Facing life without the internet. Internet Res Electronic Netw Appl Policy 8(4):303–312CrossRef Kingsley P, Anderson T (1998) Facing life without the internet. Internet Res Electronic Netw Appl Policy 8(4):303–312CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Kosko B (1992) Neural networks and fuzzy systems. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs Kosko B (1992) Neural networks and fuzzy systems. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Zurück zum Zitat Lacher RC, Coats PK, Sharma SC, Fant LF (1995) A neural network for classifying the financial health of a firm. Eur J Oper Res 85(1):53–65CrossRef Lacher RC, Coats PK, Sharma SC, Fant LF (1995) A neural network for classifying the financial health of a firm. Eur J Oper Res 85(1):53–65CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lenard MJ, Alam P, Madey GR (1995) The application of neural networks and a qualitative response model to the auditor’s going concern uncertainty decision. Decis Sci 26(2):209–227CrossRef Lenard MJ, Alam P, Madey GR (1995) The application of neural networks and a qualitative response model to the auditor’s going concern uncertainty decision. Decis Sci 26(2):209–227CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Li EY (1994) Artificial neural networks and their business applications. Inf Manage 27(5):303–313CrossRef Li EY (1994) Artificial neural networks and their business applications. Inf Manage 27(5):303–313CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Maes P (1994) Agents that reduce work and information overload. Commun ACM 37(7):31–40,146 Maes P (1994) Agents that reduce work and information overload. Commun ACM 37(7):31–40,146
Zurück zum Zitat Mannino MV, Mookerjee VS (1997) sequential decision models for expert system optimization. IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 9(5):675–687CrossRef Mannino MV, Mookerjee VS (1997) sequential decision models for expert system optimization. IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 9(5):675–687CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pakath R, Zaveri JS (1995) specifying critical inputs in a genetic algorithm-driven decision support system: an automated facility. Decis Sci 26(6):749–779CrossRef Pakath R, Zaveri JS (1995) specifying critical inputs in a genetic algorithm-driven decision support system: an automated facility. Decis Sci 26(6):749–779CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Parthasarathy M, Bhattacherjee A (1998) Understanding post-adoption behavior in the context of online services. Inf Syst Res 9(4):362–379CrossRef Parthasarathy M, Bhattacherjee A (1998) Understanding post-adoption behavior in the context of online services. Inf Syst Res 9(4):362–379CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Patuwo E, Hu MY, Hung MS (1993) Two-group classification using neural networks. Decis Sci 24(4):825–845CrossRef Patuwo E, Hu MY, Hung MS (1993) Two-group classification using neural networks. Decis Sci 24(4):825–845CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Pedhazur EJ, Schmelkin LP (1991) Measurement, design, and analysis: an integrated approach. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale Pedhazur EJ, Schmelkin LP (1991) Measurement, design, and analysis: an integrated approach. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale
Zurück zum Zitat Peters TJ (1988) Thriving on chaos. Knopf, New York Peters TJ (1988) Thriving on chaos. Knopf, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Price LL, Feick LF (1984) The role of interpersonal sources in external search: an informational perspective. In: Kinnear TC (ed) Advances in Consumer Research, vol 11. Association for Consumer Research, Ann Arbor, pp. 250–253 Price LL, Feick LF (1984) The role of interpersonal sources in external search: an informational perspective. In: Kinnear TC (ed) Advances in Consumer Research, vol 11. Association for Consumer Research, Ann Arbor, pp. 250–253
Zurück zum Zitat Reichheld FF, Sasser Jr WE (1990) Zero defections: quality comes to services. Harvard Business Review September–October:105–111 Reichheld FF, Sasser Jr WE (1990) Zero defections: quality comes to services. Harvard Business Review September–October:105–111
Zurück zum Zitat Rogers EM (1995) Diffusion of innovations, 4th edn. Free Press, New York Rogers EM (1995) Diffusion of innovations, 4th edn. Free Press, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Rust RT, Zahorik AJ (1993) Customer satisfaction, customer retention, and market share. J Retailing 69:193–215CrossRef Rust RT, Zahorik AJ (1993) Customer satisfaction, customer retention, and market share. J Retailing 69:193–215CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Smith M (1993) Neural networks for statistical modeling. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York Smith M (1993) Neural networks for statistical modeling. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Smith KA, Gupta JND (2000) Neural networks in business: techniques and applications for the operations researcher. Comput Oper Res 27:1023–1044CrossRef Smith KA, Gupta JND (2000) Neural networks in business: techniques and applications for the operations researcher. Comput Oper Res 27:1023–1044CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Sridhar DV, Bartlett EB, Seagrave RC (1999) An information theoretic approach for combining neural network process models. Neural Netw 12(6):915–926CrossRefPubMed Sridhar DV, Bartlett EB, Seagrave RC (1999) An information theoretic approach for combining neural network process models. Neural Netw 12(6):915–926CrossRefPubMed
Zurück zum Zitat Swanson NR, White H (1995) A Model-Selection approach to assessing the information in the term structure using linear models and artificial neural networks. J Bus Econ Statistics 13(3):265–275CrossRef Swanson NR, White H (1995) A Model-Selection approach to assessing the information in the term structure using linear models and artificial neural networks. J Bus Econ Statistics 13(3):265–275CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Tahai A, Walczak S, Rigsby JT (1998) Improving artificial neural network performance through input variable selection. In: Siegel P, Omer K, deKorvin A, Zebda A (eds) applications of fuzzy sets and the theory of evidence to accounting II. JAI Press, Stamford, pp. 277–292 Tahai A, Walczak S, Rigsby JT (1998) Improving artificial neural network performance through input variable selection. In: Siegel P, Omer K, deKorvin A, Zebda A (eds) applications of fuzzy sets and the theory of evidence to accounting II. JAI Press, Stamford, pp. 277–292
Zurück zum Zitat Tam KY, Kiang, MY (1992) Managerial applications of neural networks: the case of bank failure predictions. Manage Sci 38(7):926–948 Tam KY, Kiang, MY (1992) Managerial applications of neural networks: the case of bank failure predictions. Manage Sci 38(7):926–948
Zurück zum Zitat Teo TSH, Lim VKG, Lai RYC (1999) Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in internet usage. Omega Int J Manage Sci 27(1):25–37CrossRef Teo TSH, Lim VKG, Lai RYC (1999) Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in internet usage. Omega Int J Manage Sci 27(1):25–37CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Tu H, Hsiang J (2000) An architecture and category knowledge for intelligent information retrieval agents. Decis Support Syst 28(3):255–268CrossRef Tu H, Hsiang J (2000) An architecture and category knowledge for intelligent information retrieval agents. Decis Support Syst 28(3):255–268CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Udell JG (1966) Prepurchase behavior of buyers of small electric appliances. J Mark 30:50–52CrossRef Udell JG (1966) Prepurchase behavior of buyers of small electric appliances. J Mark 30:50–52CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Walczak S (1998) neural network models for a resource allocation problem. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 28(B2):276–284 Walczak S (1998) neural network models for a resource allocation problem. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 28(B2):276–284
Zurück zum Zitat Walczak S (1999) Gaining competitive advantage for trading in emerging capital markets with neural networks. J Manage Inf Syst Systems 16(2):177–192 Walczak S (1999) Gaining competitive advantage for trading in emerging capital markets with neural networks. J Manage Inf Syst Systems 16(2):177–192
Zurück zum Zitat Walczak S (2003) A multiagent architecture for developing medical information retrieval agents. J Med Syst 27(5):479–498CrossRefPubMed Walczak S (2003) A multiagent architecture for developing medical information retrieval agents. J Med Syst 27(5):479–498CrossRefPubMed
Zurück zum Zitat Walczak S, Cerpa N (1999) Heuristic principles for the design of artificial neural networks. Inf Softw Technol 41(2):107–117CrossRef Walczak S, Cerpa N (1999) Heuristic principles for the design of artificial neural networks. Inf Softw Technol 41(2):107–117CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat West D (2000) Neural network credit scoring models. Comput Oper Res 27:1131–1152CrossRef West D (2000) Neural network credit scoring models. Comput Oper Res 27:1131–1152CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat White H (1990) connectionist nonparametric regression: multilayer feedforward networks can learn arbitrary mappings. Neural Netw 3:535–549CrossRef White H (1990) connectionist nonparametric regression: multilayer feedforward networks can learn arbitrary mappings. Neural Netw 3:535–549CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Widrow B, Rumelhart D, Lehr M (1994) Neural networks: applications in industry, business, and science. Commun ACM 37(3):93–105CrossRef Widrow B, Rumelhart D, Lehr M (1994) Neural networks: applications in industry, business, and science. Commun ACM 37(3):93–105CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wilson RL, Sharda R (1994) Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks. Decis Support Syst 11(5):545–557CrossRef Wilson RL, Sharda R (1994) Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks. Decis Support Syst 11(5):545–557CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wong BK, Lai VS, Lam J (2000) A bibliography of neural network business applications research: 1994–1998. Comput Oper Res 27:1045–1076CrossRef Wong BK, Lai VS, Lam J (2000) A bibliography of neural network business applications research: 1994–1998. Comput Oper Res 27:1045–1076CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ye Y, Liu J, Moukas A (2001) Agents in electronic commerce. Electronic Commerce Res 1:1-2–9-14 Ye Y, Liu J, Moukas A (2001) Agents in electronic commerce. Electronic Commerce Res 1:1-2–9-14
Zurück zum Zitat Yegorova I, Andrews BH, Jensen JB, Smoluk BJ, Walczak S (2001) A successful neural network-based methodology for predicting small business loan default. Credit Financ Manage Rev 7(4):31–42 Yegorova I, Andrews BH, Jensen JB, Smoluk BJ, Walczak S (2001) A successful neural network-based methodology for predicting small business loan default. Credit Financ Manage Rev 7(4):31–42
Zurück zum Zitat Zeithaml VA (2000) Service quality, profitability, and the economic worth of customers: what we know and what we need to learn. J Acad Mark Sci 28:67–85CrossRef Zeithaml VA (2000) Service quality, profitability, and the economic worth of customers: what we know and what we need to learn. J Acad Mark Sci 28:67–85CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Modeling online service discontinuation with nonparametric agents
verfasst von
Steven Walczak
Madhavan Parthasarathy
Publikationsdatum
01.01.2006
Verlag
Springer-Verlag
Erschienen in
Information Systems and e-Business Management / Ausgabe 1/2006
Print ISSN: 1617-9846
Elektronische ISSN: 1617-9854
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-005-0004-7

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2006

Information Systems and e-Business Management 1/2006 Zur Ausgabe

Premium Partner