Skip to main content

2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

9. Planning for Community Resilience Under Climate Uncertainty

verfasst von : Ross B. Corotis

Erschienen in: Climate Change and Its Impacts

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Community resilience requires an accurate estimate of the stressors to which that community could be subjected, and the likelihood of their occurrences and magnitudes. Causation of natural hazards can be categorized conveniently into four general classifications: hydrological, climatological, meteorological and geophysical. For all of these categories, future risk generally has been based on probability models calibrated from past experience. But for the first three, climate uncertainty demands a reexamination of that approach. This reassessment is particularly important for communities subjected to riverine and coastal flooding. In this chapter we address the vulnerability of flood-prone communities as a whole, rather than their individual structures. We look at community vulnerability, first to dams and levees and then to coastal flooding, and then introduce the concept of adaptive management for a changing climate. Finally, we examine the importance of incorporating future cots in community decision-making.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Bonstrom H, Corotis R, Porter K (2012) Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. J Integr Disaster Risk Manage 2(1):1–23CrossRef Bonstrom H, Corotis R, Porter K (2012) Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. J Integr Disaster Risk Manage 2(1):1–23CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Corotis RB (2002) The political realities of life cycle costing. In: Casas JR, Frangopol DM, Nowak AS (eds) Bridge maintenance, safety and management, International center for numerical methods in engineering, Barcelona, Spain, CD Rom Corotis RB (2002) The political realities of life cycle costing. In: Casas JR, Frangopol DM, Nowak AS (eds) Bridge maintenance, safety and management, International center for numerical methods in engineering, Barcelona, Spain, CD Rom
Zurück zum Zitat Corotis R (2016) An overview of uncertainty concepts related to mechanical and civil engineering. In: ASCE-ASME journal of risk and uncertainty in engineering systems, Part b mechanical engineering, December, 1(4), 040801-1–040801-12CrossRef Corotis R (2016) An overview of uncertainty concepts related to mechanical and civil engineering. In: ASCE-ASME journal of risk and uncertainty in engineering systems, Part b mechanical engineering, December, 1(4), 040801-1–040801-12CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Corotis R, Gransberg D (2006) Adding social discount rate to the life-cycle cost decision-making algorithm. J Reliab Struct Mater 2(1):13–24 Corotis R, Gransberg D (2006) Adding social discount rate to the life-cycle cost decision-making algorithm. J Reliab Struct Mater 2(1):13–24
Zurück zum Zitat Cox LA Jr, Cox ED (2016) Intergenerational justice in protective and resilience investments with uncertain future preferences and resources. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Cox LA Jr, Cox ED (2016) Intergenerational justice in protective and resilience investments with uncertain future preferences and resources. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Ellingwood BR, Lee JY (2016) Managing risks to civil infrastructure due to natural hazards: communicating long-term risks due to climate change. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Ellingwood BR, Lee JY (2016) Managing risks to civil infrastructure due to natural hazards: communicating long-term risks due to climate change. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Farber DA (2016) Discount rates and infrastructure safety: implications of the new economic learning. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Farber DA (2016) Discount rates and infrastructure safety: implications of the new economic learning. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Gardoni P, Murphy C (2014) A scale of risk. Risk Anal 34(7):1208–1227CrossRef Gardoni P, Murphy C (2014) A scale of risk. Risk Anal 34(7):1208–1227CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Gilbert R, Habibi M, Nadim F (2016) Accounting for unknown unknowns in managing multi-hazard risks. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Gilbert R, Habibi M, Nadim F (2016) Accounting for unknown unknowns in managing multi-hazard risks. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Hansson SO (2016) Managing risks of the unknown. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Hansson SO (2016) Managing risks of the unknown. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Lounis Z, McAllister T (2016) Risk-based decision making for sustainable and resilient infrastructure systems. J Struct Eng 142(9). September, 1943-541X.0001545, ASCECrossRef Lounis Z, McAllister T (2016) Risk-based decision making for sustainable and resilient infrastructure systems. J Struct Eng 142(9). September, 1943-541X.0001545, ASCECrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat MacLean D (2016) Climate change and natural hazards. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany MacLean D (2016) Climate change and natural hazards. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat McCarthy TG, Sugrue NM (2016) Social choice and the risks of intervention. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany McCarthy TG, Sugrue NM (2016) Social choice and the risks of intervention. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Molk P (2016) Private versus public insurance for natural hazards: individual behavior’s role in loss mitigation. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Molk P (2016) Private versus public insurance for natural hazards: individual behavior’s role in loss mitigation. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat National Research Council (2012) Dam and levee safety and community resilience. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council (2012) Dam and levee safety and community resilience. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Zurück zum Zitat National Research Council (2014) Reducing coastal risk on the East and Gulf Coasts. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council (2014) Reducing coastal risk on the East and Gulf Coasts. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Zurück zum Zitat National Research Council (2015) Tying flood insurance to flood risk for low-lying structures in the floodplains. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council (2015) Tying flood insurance to flood risk for low-lying structures in the floodplains. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Zurück zum Zitat Pandey MD, Nathwani JS (2003) Discounting models and the life-quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety. Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems, Balkema, London Pandey MD, Nathwani JS (2003) Discounting models and the life-quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety. Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems, Balkema, London
Zurück zum Zitat Paulk PC, Weber CV, Curtis B, Chrissis MB (1994) The capability maturity model: guidelines for improving the software process. Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute, Addison-Wiley Professional, Boston, MA Paulk PC, Weber CV, Curtis B, Chrissis MB (1994) The capability maturity model: guidelines for improving the software process. Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute, Addison-Wiley Professional, Boston, MA
Zurück zum Zitat Rajagopalan B, Edward O, Corotis RB, Frangopol DM (2004) Estimating structural reliability under hurricane wind hazard: applications to wood structures. In: Proceedings of the ninth ASCE joint specialty conference on probabilistic mechanics and structural Reliability, July 26–28, Albuquerque, NM CD-ROM Rajagopalan B, Edward O, Corotis RB, Frangopol DM (2004) Estimating structural reliability under hurricane wind hazard: applications to wood structures. In: Proceedings of the ninth ASCE joint specialty conference on probabilistic mechanics and structural Reliability, July 26–28, Albuquerque, NM CD-ROM
Zurück zum Zitat Rosowsky DV, Mudd L, Letchford C (2016) Assessing climate change impact on the joint wind-rain hurricane hazard for the Northeastern U.S. Coastline. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. SpringerCrossRef Rosowsky DV, Mudd L, Letchford C (2016) Assessing climate change impact on the joint wind-rain hurricane hazard for the Northeastern U.S. Coastline. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. SpringerCrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Rowell A (2016) Theories of risk management and multiple hazards: thoughts for engineers from regulatory policy. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Rowell A (2016) Theories of risk management and multiple hazards: thoughts for engineers from regulatory policy. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Simiu E, Scanlan RH (1086) Wind effects on structures. Wiley, New York Simiu E, Scanlan RH (1086) Wind effects on structures. Wiley, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Stewart M (2016a) Risk and decision-making for extreme events: climate change and terrorism. In Gardoni P, LaFave J (eds) Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering. Springer, Berlin, Germany Stewart M (2016a) Risk and decision-making for extreme events: climate change and terrorism. In Gardoni P, LaFave J (eds) Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Stewart M (2016b) Climate change impact assessment of metal-clad buildings subject to extreme wind loading in non-cyclonic regions. Sustain Resilient Infrastruct 1(1–2):32–45CrossRef Stewart M (2016b) Climate change impact assessment of metal-clad buildings subject to extreme wind loading in non-cyclonic regions. Sustain Resilient Infrastruct 1(1–2):32–45CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Vacheyroux G, Corotis R (2013) Strategies of investment in the management of urban bridges: a life-cycle approach illustrated for Paris. Struct Infrastruct Eng Maintenance Manage Life-Cycle Design Perform 9(11):1080–1093 Vacheyroux G, Corotis R (2013) Strategies of investment in the management of urban bridges: a life-cycle approach illustrated for Paris. Struct Infrastruct Eng Maintenance Manage Life-Cycle Design Perform 9(11):1080–1093
Zurück zum Zitat Woo G (2016) Participatory decision-making on hazard warnings. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Woo G (2016) Participatory decision-making on hazard warnings. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Zurück zum Zitat Wuebbles DJ (2016) Setting the stage for risk management: severe weather under a changing climate. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany Wuebbles DJ (2016) Setting the stage for risk management: severe weather under a changing climate. In: Gardoni P, Murphy C, Rowell A (eds) Societal risk management of natural hazards. Springer, Berlin, Germany
Metadaten
Titel
Planning for Community Resilience Under Climate Uncertainty
verfasst von
Ross B. Corotis
Copyright-Jahr
2018
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77544-9_9