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Erschienen in: Social Choice and Welfare 4/2016

14.12.2015 | Original Paper

Private agenda and re-election incentives

verfasst von: Javier Rivas

Erschienen in: Social Choice and Welfare | Ausgabe 4/2016

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Abstract

Consider a politician who has to take two sequential decisions during his term in office. For each decision, the politician faces a trade-off between taking what he believes to be the decision that generates a public benefit, thus increasing his chances of re-election, and taking the decision that increases his private gain but is likely to decrease his chances of re-election. In our results we find that if the politician is a good enough decision maker and he desires to be re-elected enough, he takes the action that generates a public benefit regardless of his private interests. Moreover, we find that the behavior such that the politician delays taking the action that generates a public benefit to the last period of his term in office before he is up for re-election is optimal if and only if he has either very high or very low decision making skills.

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Fußnoten
1
Most of this empirical literature assumed that politician has a maximum number of terms. Hence, the standard prediction of the political agency model is that the politician shirks when he is in his last term in office. In our model, there is no term limit and shirking occurs because there are multiple decisions per term. Moreover, in our paper the politician chooses not only whether to shirk or not but also when.
 
2
For more on the role of commitment and time inconsistencies in a sequential policy making model see Bueno de Mesquita and Landa (2014).
 
3
The case where there is only one time period (i.e. the politician takes only one decision per term) is considered in the seminal paper of Ferejohn (1986) and more recently in Weelden (2013). The working paper version of the present paper (Rivas 2014) deals with the cases where there is only one time period (i.e. one decision) per term and when there are more than two.
 
4
Note that given that we deal with a binary policy/binary state space model both the quality of information and the politician’s decision making skills are equivalent concepts yet this is not true in general.
 
5
The working paper version of the this paper (Rivas 2014) extends this assumption by allowing voters to be strategic players that have the number of times the politician needs to take the public decision in order for him to be re-elected as their choice variable.
 
6
Alternatively, it could be assumed that the politician receives some one-off benefit from taking the public decision.
 
7
Even though we assume the private decision to be action 1, the private decision could change period by period. This would make no difference to our results but would complicate the exposition.
 
8
This does not mean that the politician commits to a certain sequence of plans \(\{d_t\}_{t=1}^{t=2}\). The politician can choose any plan \(d_t\) at time t but, given that \(d_t\) is contingent on all relevant information up to time t, this plan is no different than the one he would have chosen at the beginning of the game. Likewise, this assumption poses no time consistency problems.
 
9
The politician would get more if \(\theta = 1\) at either of the two new periods, which happens with probability \(\frac{3}{4}\). In this case, the politician would get a higher payoff this term and, on top of that, he is re-elected again.
 
10
Note that \(\beta < \frac{3 - 2q}{q (11-8q) - 2}\) implies \(3 + 2\beta - q(2+11\beta - 8 \beta q) > 0\) and, hence, the continuity in \(\bar{\alpha }\).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Private agenda and re-election incentives
verfasst von
Javier Rivas
Publikationsdatum
14.12.2015
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Social Choice and Welfare / Ausgabe 4/2016
Print ISSN: 0176-1714
Elektronische ISSN: 1432-217X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-015-0941-0

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